FOMC Meeting Minutes due later today.

The FOMC’s June meeting minutes are due to released later on today, during the American session. The meeting minutes could provide key insight into the thought process behind the bank’s hawkish pause. The minutes in our opinion could possibly show the bank’s continued worries about inflationary pressures persisting in the US economy, yet some concern on whether the bank has begun to see the long run implications of high interest rates. During today’s Asian session, we note the release of China’s Caixin Services PMI figure for June, which came in lower than expected. The continued deterioration in Chinese economic activity, may be perceived as an early warning signal that one of the world’s largest economy’s, appears to be slowing down. On a more Geopolitical note, as the US and China battle it out on hindering each other’s semiconductor development, the EU and Japan, appear to be strengthening ties by announcing yesterday that they would be working together on semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. In the EU Equities market, we highlight the announcement by Airbus yesterday, that the company has introduced a “New technology hub to accelerate next generation Airbus wings”. The facility according to the company, aims to develop ‘wings’ that will aid in fuel efficiency and in reducing CO2 emissions, factors that may reduce the overall costs for potential clients, in addition to allowing airlines to potentially charge lower prices for fares as the operating cost are reduced. Oil traders today might be interested in OPEC’s 2-day seminar upon which, oil producing, and oil consuming nations are due to talk on key issues, with the potential for news releases to affect the market in either direction.

WTICash appears to be moving in upwards fashion. We maintain a bullish outlook for the commodity and supporting our case is the upwards moving trendline incepted on the 28^th of June in addition to the RSI indicator below our 4-Hour chart remaining above the reading of 50, implying a bullish market sentiment. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would like to see the commodity continue to validate our upwards moving trendline, in addition to seeing a clear break above the 72.50 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls potentially being the 75.15 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook we would like to see a clear break below the 70.15 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 67.65 (S2) support base.

AUD/USD appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, despite the technical analysis indicating a bullish bias. We maintain a bearish outlook for the pair, given the fundamental’s surrounding China’s worsening economic outlook, which may weigh heavily on the Aussie, given Australia’s trade reliance on China for its exports. For our bearish outlook to continue we would like to see the pair breaking below the upwards moving channel, breaking below the 0.6670 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 0.6595 (S2) support base. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would like to see the pair continue to validate the upwards moving channel, in addition to seeing a clear break above the 0.6715 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 0.6805 (R2) resistance ceiling.

Other highlights for the day:

In today’s European session we note the release of Turkey’s CPI rates for June, Eurozone’s Composite final PMI and UK’s final Services PMI figure both for June as well as Eurozone’s producer prices for May. In the American session, we note the release of the US Factory goods orders for May while oil traders may be more interested in the release of the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. On the monetary front, besides the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes, we also note the planned speech of NY Fed President Williams. During Thursday’s Asian session, we note the release of Australia’s trade data for May.   

WTICash H4 Chart

Support: 70.15 (S1), 67.65 (S2), 65.05 (S3)

Resistance: 72.50 (R1), 75.15 (R2), 78.45 (R3)

AUD/USD H4 Chart

Support: 0.6670 (S1), 0.6595 (S2), 0.6505 (S3)

Resistance: 0.6715 (R1), 0.6805 (R2), 0.6920 (R3)

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

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