US Jolts Job openings figure eyed

The US JOLTS Job openings figure is set to be released later on today. Despite, the lack of a clear correlation between the JOLTS Job openings figure and the Non-Farm Payrolls figure, it could set the tone for the remaining financial releases. Therefore, should the figure come in as expected at 8.34 million which is lower than the previous figure of 8.448 million, it may imply a loosening of the US labour market and thus could weigh on the dollar. On the flip side, anything higher could provide support for the USD. During yesterday’s American session, the US Manufacturing PMI figures for the month of May were released. The S&P manufacturing PMI figure exceeded expectations by coming in at 51.3 versus the expected figure of 50.9, implying an expansion in manufacturing activity in the US. However, the release of the US ISM manufacturing PMI figure, tended to cast some doubt on the aforementioned scenario. In particular, the ISM figure came in lower than expected at 48.7 versus the expected figure of 49.8, implying a contraction in manufacturing activity. In tomorrow’s Asian session, Australia’s GDP rate for Q1 is set to be released. Currently, market participants, are estimating that Australia’s economy expanded by 1.2% during Q1, which would be lower than the prior rate of 1.5%. The GDP rate could imply that Australia’s economy may be facing some hardship ahead, and thus could weigh on the Aussie. On the flip side, should the GDP rate come in higher than expected it could provide support for the AUD. On a political level, the EU parliamentary elections have kicked off, with Estonians casting the first ballots on Monday afternoon.

On a technical level ,we note that XAU/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion. We maintain a sideway bias for the commodity and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure of 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. Furthermore, the commodity has broken below our upwards-moving channel, implying an interruption of gold’s upwards momentum. For our sideways bias to continue we would require the commodity to remain confined within the 2290 (S1) support level and the 2335 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 2290 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 2220 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 2355 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 2430 (R2) resistance level.

AUD/USD appears to be moving in a sideways motion. We maintain a sideways bias for the pair and supporting our case is the pair’s price action breaking below our upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 19^th of April, which may imply an interruption of the pair’s upwards motion. Yet the RSI indicator below our chart is near the reading of 60, implying some bullish market tendencies. Nonetheless, for our sideways bias to continue, we would require the pair to remain confined within the sideways moving channel defined by the  0.6596 (S1) support level and the 0.6715 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 0.6715 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 0.6870 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 0.6595 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 0.6446 (S2) support line.

Other highlights for the day:

Today in the European session we get Switzerland’s CPI rates for May, while ECB’s Bollo and Buch are scheduled to speak. In the American session, we get from the US, April’s Factory orders and JOLTS Job Openings while later on oil traders may be more interested in the release of the weekly API crude oil inventories figure. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of the services PMI figures of Australia, Japan and China, all being for May, as well as Australia’s GDP rates for Q1.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 2290 (S1), 2220 (S2), 2145 (S3)
• Resistance: 2355 (R1), 2430 (R2), 2500 (R3)

AUD/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 0.6595 (S1), 0.6445 (S2), 0.6285 (S3)
• Resistance: 0.6715 (R1), 0.6870 (R2), 0.7030 (R3)

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

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