![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-59.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 UK CPI rates next week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
On a macro-economic level, it\u2019s been a pretty easy going week for pound traders with the exception of the Halifax House Prices rate which came in lower than expected on a month-on-month basis\u00a0 at 0.5% versus the expected rate of 0.2%. However, of greater interest may have been the release of the UK\u2019s GDP rates for February earlier on today which came in better than expected, which in turn may have aided the pound as the week comes to an end. For next week, we would like to note the UK\u2019s unemployment rate for February and their CPI rates for March. Starting with the unemployment rate, should the financial release showcase a resilient labour market, it may be seen as a positive for the UK economy which in turn could aid the pound and vice versa. Moving on to the CPI rates, should the showcase stubborn or even an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the UK economy it may increase pressure on the BoE to adopt a wait and see approach which could aid the pound. Whereas easing inflationary pressures could increase calls for the bank to continue on their rate cutting cycle which could weigh on the sterling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a political level, we note that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer earlier on this week had pledged to sign a trade deal with the US only if it was in the UK\u2019s national interest. The UK according to the BBC was hoping to sign a deal with the US to limit the impact on the UK in exchange for tax changes on big tech firms. However, with Trump\u2019s announcement yesterday that the tariffs would be postponed for another 90 days, the impact on the UK economy may not be seen in the near future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analyst\u2019s opinion (GBP)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0\u201cThe financial releases from the UK may influence the sterling. Yet as was seen this week the narrative stemming from the US tends to dominate the market sentiment and news airwaves and thus should significant news emerge from the US and in particular references to tariffs, the financial releases stemming from the UK may be overshadowed. \u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, this week was easy going for Yen traders with no major financial releases from the nation. Thus, we turn our sights to next week\u2019s nationwide CPI rates for March which are set\u00a0 to be released on Friday. Should the CPI rate come in higher than the prior rate of 3.7% it would imply an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy, which in turn could open the door for the BOJ to return to their rate hiking cycle, thus potentially aiding the JPY. However, a lower CPI rate which would imply easing inflationary pressures could have the opposite effect and could thus weigh on the Yen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level the highlight for Yen traders may have been BOJ Governor Ueda\u2019s comments who per Reuters stated that \u201cwe need to pay due attention to risks, especially recent heightening uncertainty over developments in each country’s trade policy,” implying that the bank may remain on hold in the foreseeable future until a clearer picture emerges on the potential tariffs being imposed by the US on Japan. Nonetheless, should BOJ policymakers imply that they may resume their rate hiking cycle it could aid the JPY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, as we have mentioned in previous paragraphs in this report, Trump\u2019s decision to postpone the implementation of tariffs for 90 days may provide some reprieve for traders and thus could provide some leeway for the bank should they decide to hike rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (JPY)\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe BOJ is placed in a difficult like every other central bank as a result of Trump\u2019s tariff rhetoric. The 90-day reprieve could allow the bank to hike in their next meeting should inflation appear to be accelerating. Yet, any hawkish rhetoric or actions from the BOJ may be limited in nature for the next 90 days until and if a trade deal emerges with the US, otherwise\u00a0 we are back to square one \u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU\u2019s relationship with the US is on fragile turf, with the EU having prepared their countermeasures against Trump\u2019s implied tariffs. The EU specifically had prepared a retaliatory 25% tariff on US goods, yet at the time of this report appears to have rescinded that decision following Trump\u2019s announcement to postpone his tariffs for the next 90 days. In turn things appear to have calmed down temporarily, yet unless the EU manages to secure an agreement with President Trump in the next few months we may return to the volatility seen earlier on this week in the EUR and the European Equities markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level, the ECB\u2019s interest rate decision is set to occur next week. The bank is widely expected by economists to cut rates by 25 basis points with EUR OIS currently implying a 94.75% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Thus with market participants all but having fully priced in a rate cut by the ECB we turn our attention to the bank\u2019s accompanying statement. Should the accompanying statement showcase a continued concern for the resilience of the European economy in spite of Trump\u2019s 90 day pause on tariffs, it may imply that the ECB could continue cutting rates in the near future which may weigh on the EUR. On the flip side, should the ECB showcase concern about a resurgence of inflationary pressures it may imply that the bank could remain on hold which may aid the common currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On\u00a0 a macroeconomic level Germany\u2019s CPI rates for March came in lower than expected implying easing inflationary pressures in one of the most important economies in the Zone. However, due to the ongoing tariff narrative during the week, the release may have been glossed over. Nonetheless, for next week would like to note Germany\u2019s ZEW economic sentiment figure for April as a gauge for the health of the consumer side of the economy. An improvement in the figure may aid the EUR and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (EUR)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe tariff narrative has taken over the direction of the EUR. In spite of easing inflationary pressures in Germany, the EUR appears to be gaining against the dollar,pound and Yen , showcasing how the narrative emerging from EU Leaders and US President Trump has dictated the week. Our view is that the ECB may adopt a wait-and-see approach even if they do decide to cut rates next week. Our reasoning is that the situation is so dynamic that significant developments could happen in the upcoming week in regards to the trade wars and thus this uncertainty might be something the ECB may be looking to \u2018hedge\u2019 against.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level the RBA\u2019s last meeting minutes are set to be released next Tuesday. The minutes may provide further clues into the bank\u2019s inner deliberations and the mentality of policymakers as to how they may approach their next decision. Therefore, should the minutes showcase a willingness by the bank to cut rates it may be perceived as dovish in nature which in turn could weigh on the Aussie. On the other hand, should the minutes showcase a restraint by policymakers thus implying keeping interest rates steady, it may be perceived as hawkish in nature which in turn could aid the AUD. However, given that the bank\u2019s decision was taken before the rapid changes in the ongoing trade wars which occurred last week, the effect of the minutes on the FX market may be limited in nature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, no major financial releases emerged from Australia during this week. Therefore, we take a look into next week\u2019s releases, where Australia\u2019s employment data for March is set to be released on Thursday. Should the nation\u2019s employment data showcase a loosening labour market, it may imply a worsening economic outlook for Australia, which in turn could weigh on the AUD. On the flip side, should the employment data showcase a resilient labour market it may aid the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fundamentally speaking, Australia has been placed in a difficult spot between China and the US as their trade wars intensify. Specifically, the US and China have been trading blows over the past week with both nation\u2019s announcing retaliatory tariffs almost on a daily basis. Overall, should the trade war negatively impact China\u2019s economy, it may inadvertently weigh on the Aussie as well given their close economic ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (AUD) \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn our view, the dollar may continue weakening in the coming week which in turn could aid the Aussie. However we cannot stress enough that the ongoing trade war between China and the US may negatively impact China\u2019s economic growth over the long term. Therefore, given Australia\u2019s and China\u2019s close economic ties, at a certain point the negative connotations as a result of a trade war between the US and China could spill over into the AUD.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level, we note that the BoC\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place next Wednesday. The majority of market participants are currently anticipating the bank to cut rates by 25 basis points with CAD OIS currently implying a 66% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Therefore, should the bank cut rates as is currently expected by market participants it may weigh on the Loonie. Moreover, we would like to highlight the bank\u2019s accompanying statement which may provide insight into the bank\u2019s considerations into the ongoing trade war between the US and its trading partners. Should the bank showcase hesitancy to continue cutting rates in the future it may aid the Loonie as it could be perceived as hawkish in nature. On the other hand, should the bank imply that it may continue cutting rates it may have the opposite effect and could thus weigh on the CAD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macrolevel we highlight the release of Canada\u2019s Ivey PMI figures for March which where released this Tuesday. The financial release came in lower than expected at 51.3 versus 53.2 and even lower that the prior figure of 55.3 implying a worsening manufacturing sector of in the Canadian economy. The lower-than-expected figure may have temporarily weighed on the Loonie. Yet as a result of the ongoing trade wars and the weakening dollar, the financial releases may have been overlooked. For next week traders may be looking forward to the release of the BoC Core CPI rate for March which is due out on Tuesday. Should the Core CPI rate showcase an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the Canadian economy it may increase pressure on the BoC to remain on hold which in turn could aid the CAD. On the flip side, should the Core CPI rate showcase easing inflationary pressures it may weigh on the Loonie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (CAD)<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-60.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 CPI rates next Friday<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-61.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 ECB decision to occur next week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-62.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 RBA meeting minutes due out next week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-63.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 BoC to cut by 25 bp?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-64.png\")
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