{"id":101432,"date":"2025-02-17T11:15:16","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T09:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=101432"},"modified":"2025-02-17T11:15:39","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T09:15:39","slug":"rbas-interest-rate-decision-in-focus-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/es\/rbas-interest-rate-decision-in-focus-5\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA\u2019s interest rate decision in focus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aussie traders are expected to keep a close eye on the release of RBA\u2019s interest rate decision next Tuesday. We note that the market seems to expect the bank to proceed with a 25 basis points rate cut and AUD OIS imply a probability currently of 88% for such a rate cut, while the other 20% seems to imply that the bank may remain on hold. We see the case for the bank to proceed with a rate cut on Tuesday\u2019s meeting as the CPI rates for Q4 slowed down considerably despite some resilience in November and December. At the same time, the Australian employment market seems to remain rather tight with the unemployment rate dropping over the second half of 24, despite a tick up in December. Should the bank hold a dovish tone in the coming week, implying that more rate cuts are to come, we may see AUD weakening, while should the bank show increased uncertainty for more rate cuts to come, we may see the Aussie getting some support. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD rose on Friday and during today\u2019s Asian session, reaching two month highs by testing the 0.6365 (R1) resistance line. We also note that the RSI indicator also rose nearing the reading of 70 and implying a strengthening bullish sentiment among market participants for the pair. On the other hand, AUD\/USD\u2019s price action is flirting with the upper Bollinger band, which may be another signal of a bullish sentiment, yet at the same time may also imply that in an effort to respect the boundary, the pair\u2019s upward motion may slow down or that the price action may even correct lower. Should the bulls maintain control over the Aussie, we may see AUD\/USD breaking the 0.6365 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 0.6665 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take charge of the pair\u2019s direction we may see AUD\/USD reversing course, breaking the 0.6170 (S1) support line, with the next target being set at the 0.5980 (S2) support base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also in the FX market we note the strengthening of JPY further fuelled by the unexpected acceleration of Japan\u2019s GDP rate for Q4 24. The strengthening of the Yen forced USD\/JPY to continue to correct lower during today\u2019s Asian session, aiming for the 151.35 (S1) support line. Nevertheless, despite the bearish tendencies of the pair and for the time being, we tend to maintain a bias for a sideways motion between the 154.65 (R1) resistance line and the 151.35 (S1) support level. We note though the drop of the RSI indicator which implied an enhancing of the bearish sentiment among market participants for the pair. Yet for an adoption of a bearish outlook for USD\/JPY we would require the pair to break the 151.35 (S1) support line allowing the pair to form a lower trough than the one formed on the 7.<\/sup> of February and start aiming for the 148.65 (S2) support level. On the flip side a bullish outlook we would require the pair to break the 154.65 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 158.45 (R2) resistance level. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otros puntos destacados del d\u00eda:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we get Canada\u2019s House Starts for January while Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0En cuanto al resto de la semana:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday, we get UK\u2019s December employment data, Sweden\u2019s January CPI rates, France\u2019s final HICP rate for January, Germany\u2019s ZEW indicators for February and Canada\u2019s CPI rates for January. On Wednesday, we get from Japan December\u2019s machinery orders and January\u2019s trade data, from Australia the wage Price index for Q4, from New Zealand we highlight the release of RBNZ\u2019s interest rate decision, UK\u2019s CPI rates for January and from the US the release of the Fed\u2019s January meeting minutes. On Thursday we get Australia\u2019s January employment data, UK\u2019s nationwide House prices, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure, the US Philly Fed Business index for February and Euro Zone\u2019s preliminary consumer confidence for February. On Friday we get the preliminary PMI figures for February of Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Euro Zone and the US as well as Japan\u2019s CPI rates, UK\u2019s retail sales for January, France\u2019s business index for February, Canada\u2019s retail sales for December and the US final UoM consumer Sentiment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD Gr\u00e1fico diario<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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