{"id":105467,"date":"2025-03-14T11:12:17","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T09:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=105467"},"modified":"2025-03-14T11:12:32","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T09:12:32","slug":"trumps-trade-wars-intensify","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/es\/trumps-trade-wars-intensify\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s trade wars intensify"},"content":{"rendered":"

The USD firmed against its counterparts yesterday as Trump\u2019s trade wars intensify. In a latest salvo\u00a0 U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to hit Europe with a 200% tariff on wine, cognac and other alcohol imports. The move weakened the EUR decisively, while on the flip side the USD was allowed to strengthen. We expect the trade wars to continue to tantalise the markets and further escalations of the tensions in the US trade relationships with other countries may create\u00a0 safe haven inflows for the USD, yet at the same time may enhance uncertainty for the US economic outlook. At the same time, in the internal US political scene, the US Government is threatened with a possible shutdown increasing the pressure on the Trump administration and at the same time highlighting an uncertainty at an internal political level. It\u2019s characteristic of the market uncertainty, that despite an easing of the PPI rates for February, which aligned with the easing CPI rates and employment data for the same month, exercising pressure on the Fed to ease its monetary policy, US stock markets fell instead of rising while at the same time gold\u2019s price was pushed to new record high levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD continued to correct lower yesterday, from its peak at the 1.0940 (R1) resistance line. As the downward trendline guiding it has broken we initially switch our bullish outlook in favour of a sideways motion bias. Yet the RSI indicator despite correcting just below the reading of 70, is still at high levels, implying a bullish predisposition of the market for the pair. Should the bulls regain control over the pair, we may see EUR\/USD breaking the 1.0940 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.1210 (R2) resistance hurdle. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the 1.0760 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 1.0600 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold\u2019s price rose yesterday breaking the 2955 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. As the precious metal\u2019s price was able to breach the upper boundary of its\u00a0 past sideways motion we maintain a bullish bias for its movement while the RSI indicator rose reaching the reading of 70 implying a bullish sentiment of the market for gold, which in turn may push its price even higher. A small word of caution though, as the price also has reached\/breached the upper Bollinger band which may slow down the bulls or even cause a correction lower. Should the bulls maintain control over gold\u2019s price, we set the 3100 as the next possible target for the bulls. For the adoption of a bearish outlook we would require the precious metal\u2019s price to retreat breaking the 2955 (S1) support line but also continue lower to break the 2790 (S2) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being set at the 2585 (S3) support barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the FX market we highlight the unexpected contraction of the UK economy for January as reported by the GDP Rate while at the same time the manufacturing output growth rate also widely contracted for the same month, underscoring the impasses hit by the UK economy, which understandably weighed on the pound and is increasing pressure on BoE to continue cutting rates in its meeting next week.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Monday\u2019s Asian session, we get from China the Urban investment, the industrial output and we view the release as potentially market-moving. Should the Chinese economy show signs of easing economic activity and demand, we may see market worries intensifying as China\u2019s growth rate could be set at risk, slowing growth on a global level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otros puntos destacados del d\u00eda:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today in the European session, we note the release of Germany\u2019s and France\u2019s final HICP rates for February as well as UK\u2019s January GDP and manufacturing output growth rates. In the American session, we get Canada\u2019s manufacturing sales for January and from the US the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Gr\u00e1fico Diario<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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