![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-123.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 UK CPI rates showcase easing inflationary pressures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
On a macro-economic level, we note that the UK\u2019s CPI rates for February were released on Wednesday. The inflation print showcased that on a headline and core level, inflationary pressures in the UK economy appear to be easing, with the headline rate coming in at 2.8% and the Core rate at 3.5% both of which are lower than the prior rates of 3.0% and 3.7% respectively. In turn, the implications of easing inflationary pressures may increase pressure on the BoE to cut rates in their next meeting, which in turn may weigh on the sterling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a political level, we note that UK Finance Chancellor Reeves announced the Spring Statement earlier this week. Per the FT \u201cReeves announced a budgetary repair job of \u00a314bn after higher borrowing costs and slower growth pushed her \u00a34bn into the red against her key fiscal rule\u201d and that this gap will be addressed through welfare savings and a reduction in departmental spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analyst\u2019s opinion (GBP)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The lower-than-expected CPI print is welcome news for the Bank, yet the possibility of a trade war with the US could upend the BoE\u2019s progress on combating inflation. Hence, should the UK fail to secure an \u2018exemption\u2019 from the tariff wrath of the US, it may weigh on the pound <\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, of interest this week was Japan\u2019s Tokyo CPI rates for March came in hotter than expected both on a headline and core level, implying an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. In turn this may amplify calls for the BOJ to hike rates in the future, a scenario we go discuss on the paragraph below. Nevertheless, the acceleration of inflation may aid the JPY as the week comes to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level the highlight for Yen traders may have been the release of the BOJ\u2019s last meeting minutes which were published on Tuesday. In the bank\u2019s meeting minutes, \u201cSome members noted that, looking at recent indicators of inflation expectations and other factors, it could be judged that the likelihood of underlying inflation increasing was rising\u201d. The comments may imply that the bank could be prepared to raise interest rates, which in turn could aid the JPY, should the bank adopt a more hawkish rhetoric<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, President Trump\u2019s decision to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports could derail the bank\u2019s ambitions, as Japan\u2019s export economy also relies on Japanese car exports to the US. As such, the recently announced tariffs could severely impact Japan\u2019s economy and could outweigh recent financial releases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (JPY)<\/p>\n\n\n\n The BOJ\u2019s intentions may have aided the Yen, yet the recent imposition of tariff\u2019s on auto imports to the US may take the stage for the JPY. Should Japan fail to secure an exemption from the Trump administration could significantly raise concern over Japan\u2019s economic outlook and with inflation on the rise, the BOJ may be placed in a difficult position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU\u2019s relationship with the US may continue to deteriorate following President Trump\u2019s comments on Thursday. President Trump on a TruthSocial post stated that \u201cIf the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!\u201d. It appears that the sitting US President is threatening the union with a higher degree of tariff\u2019s despite the EU\u2019s trade chief meeting with Trump earlier on this week. Therefore, the possibility of a further escalation of the trade war with the US could impact the European Equities markets. Moreover, the recent 25% tariff on auto imports may significantly impact European car makers such as Volkswagen which are exposed in the American market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level we note that France\u2019s preliminary services PMI figure and Germany\u2019s preliminary manufacturing PMI figure both for March came in better than expected. The better-than-expected PMI figures appear to provide a relatively optimistic outlook for the two main economies in the Zone. In turn the financial releases may have aided the EUR during the week. For next week EUR traders may be looking forward to the release of the Zone\u2019s preliminary HICP rate for March on Tuesday and Germany\u2019s preliminary HICP rate for March on Monday. Should the HICP ratesshowcase an acceleration of inflationary pressure, it may aid the EUR as it could increase pressure on the ECB to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy stance and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (EUR)<\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU needs to decide on their approach to the US Administration\u2019s trade policies. Do they attempt to go tit-for-tat tariffs and thus embark on a trade war with a crucial trading partner, or do they attempt to walk the thin line of protectionism whilst maintaining a working relationship with President Trump. Moreover, the release of the preliminary HICP rate next week may be crucial for the ECB and their path going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level the RBA\u2019s interest rate decision is set to occur next Tuesday. The current expectations by market participants are for the bank to remain on hold with AUD OIS currently implying an 88.1% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Thus our attention turns to the bank\u2019s accompanying statement and as to whether or not the bank is prepared to cut rates in their May meeting which AUD OIS currently implies a 50.4% probability for a 25bp rate cut. Hence should the bank imply that they may cut rates in the near future it may weigh on the AUD. Whereas, should the bank imply that they may remain on hold, it could aid the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, Australia\u2019s monthly CPI rate for February was released this Wednesday. The financial release showcased easing inflationary pressures in the Australian economy with the rate coming in at 2.4% versus the expected and prior rate of 2.5%. In turn this may have weighed on the Aussie. Yet the Judo Bank preliminary services and manufacturing PMI figures for March which were released on Monday came in higher than the prior figures, implying that from a manufacturing and services standpoint the Australian economy continues to expand, which in turn may have aided the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (AUD)<\/p>\n\n\n\n The RBA\u2019s decision next week is set to be one of the highlights for Aussie traders. We would not be surprised to see the bank remaining on hold, yet with the heightened uncertainty over the impact of the US\u2019s tariffs, the bank may opt for a more cautious tone i.e implying that the bank may need more time to assess the global economic outlook and the impact on the Australian economy, rather than committing to a rate cut in the future which in turn could aid the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level, we note that the Bank of Canada\u2019s summary of deliberations was released this week and tended to provide crucial insight into the bank\u2019s inner deliberations. Specifically the comments that \u201cThey agreed that, in the absence of tariff threats and elevated uncertainty, the decision would probably have been to maintain the policy interest rate at 3%.\u201d Implying that the bank may have remained on hold. The comments made by policymakers showcases the extent to which the bank is concerned about the impact on the economy as a result of the trade war with the US. Moreover, throughout the statement the bank\u2019s concern over the implications of tarrifs on the economy is visible and thus may influence the bank\u2019s future decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macrolevel we highlight the releae of Canada\u2019s Employment data next Friday. Should the employment data showcase a loosening labour market, such an increase in the unemployment rate and an employment change figure which would be lower than the prior figure then it may weigh on the Canadian dollar. Whereas, should the employment data showcase a resilient labour market it could potentially aid the CAD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (CAD)<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have seen a visible concern by the Bank of Canada as a result of the tariffs being imposed by the USA. In turn these tariffs may be upending the BoC\u2019s progress on the fight against inflation as the Canadian economy is now under threat. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see heightened volatility in the CAD in the upcoming week, as the trade wars continue<\/p>\n\n\n\n As a closing comment, we expect the USD to maintain the initiative in the FX market in the coming week given Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d on the 2nd of April and the release of the US Employment data on Friday. As for US Equities markets the mayhem continues we note the drop of the S&P500 and the NASDAQ for the week, yet the Dow Jones index appears to be ending the week slightly above it\u2019s opening figure. As for gold\u2019s<\/p>\n\n\n\n Si tiene usted alguna pregunta o comentario sobre este art\u00edculo, escriba un correo directamente a nuestro equipo de investigaci\u00f3n research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/i> \u00a0 <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Descargo de responsabilidad: The week is drawing to a close, and as usual, we open the door to see what next week has<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-124.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 BOJ discussed hiking rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-125.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 EU-US relationship continues to deteriorate.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-126.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 RBA decision next week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-127.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 BoC may have remained on hold if not for Trump\u2019s tariffs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-128.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGeneral Comment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Esta informaci\u00f3n no debe considerarse asesoramiento o recomendaci\u00f3n sobre inversiones, sino una comunicaci\u00f3n de marketing. IronFX no se hace responsable de datos o informaci\u00f3n de terceros en esta comunicaci\u00f3n, ya sea por referencia o enlace.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"