{"id":108597,"date":"2025-04-15T14:34:50","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T11:34:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=108597"},"modified":"2025-04-15T14:34:51","modified_gmt":"2025-04-15T11:34:51","slug":"gold-outlook-golds-price-reaches-new-record-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/es\/gold-outlook-golds-price-reaches-new-record-highs\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Gold\u2019s price reaches new record highs"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report, today we will be discussing the fundamental factors influencing the direction of gold prices, which have recently reached new record highs. Issues like the uncertainty created in the market by US President Trump\u2019s tariffs, the perception of a negative correlation of gold with the USD, any news regarding central bank buying and the Fed\u2019s stance are to be discussed. At the end we are also to include a technical analysis for gold\u2019s daily chart in order to provide a rounder view for the trading instrument.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative correlation of gold to USD rejuvenated?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the past few days the negative correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price seems to have been largely rejuvenated, as the precious metal\u2019s price rose reaching new record high levels while the USD index fell for the past three days, while gold\u2019s price rose has been rising for a few days now pausing yesterday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We would like to see clearer evidence regarding the negative correlation of the two trading instruments before adopting a rejuvenation of it on a fundamental level. At the same time we also note the rise of US yields over the past few days since our last report and their relative stabilisation at high levels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The course of yields should make US bonds more attractive for investors thus weighing on gold\u2019s price, given the antagonistic nature of the two investment instruments (gold and US bonds). Yet gold traders were not influenced by the rise of US yields and safe haven inflows continued to reel in for the precious metal, as the uncertainty of investors is also based on the possibility of a recession in the US economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence we see a possible decoupling of gold with bonds for the time being and should market worries for a possible recession in the US economy intensify, we may see\u00a0 gold\u2019s price getting more safe haven inflows.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainty over Trumps\u2019 trade wars maintained<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The trade wars instigated by US President Trump<\/a> continue to stoke uncertainty in the markets, which in turn continue to drive safe haven inflows for the precious metal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a latest development, US President Trump, announced that he is to announce tariffs on semiconductors and possibly pharmaceuticals, practically citing the need for the US to be self sufficient on these products. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side White House officials are signaling the possibility of separate trade deals being possible for individual countries, while also US President Trump announced that high tech products could be exempted practically blurring the picture of the overall issue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We maintain the view that the trade wars may continue tantalizing the markets for the coming days and any further escalation could create further safe haven inflows for the precious metal, while any easing of the market worries could weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s stance \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the coming days with the exception of the US retail sales we have no major financial releases on the calendar stemming from the US, hence we expect fundamentals to lead the markets especially gold traders. As we\u00a0 have allready commented on Trump\u2019s trade wars, we note on a monetary level that should Fed policymakers reiterate in the coming days, their doubts for extensive rate cuts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We may see gold\u2019s price weakening while any enhancement of the market sentiment for more rate cuts to come by the bank could support gold\u2019s price, as was the case with Fed Board Governor Waller yesterday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also are worried for any signs of recession in the US economy with inflation being at the same time at relatively high levels, and any market worries to that end could enhance support for gold\u2019s price and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n