{"id":118479,"date":"2025-08-12T16:43:29","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T13:43:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=118479"},"modified":"2025-08-14T16:18:15","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T13:18:15","slug":"gold-outlook-golds-sideways-movement-maintained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/es\/gold-outlook-golds-sideways-movement-maintained\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Gold\u2019s sideways movement maintained"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price corrected lower yesterday relenting any gains made since our last report<\/a>. Today\u2019s report is to discuss fundamental issues affecting gold\u2019s price and we intend to focus on USD\u2019s and gold\u2019s negative correlation, market worries easing for Trump\u2019s trade wars, the Trump-Putin meeting and we are to conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD-Gold negative correlation inactive<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We begin the report by examining the validity of the negative correlation of the USD with Gold at the current stage. The movement of the USD Index over the past week was very subtle edging lower at the beginning yet correcting higher later on, yet gold\u2019s movement was different having slight gains throughout the week and correcting abruptly on Monday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence we currently view the negative correlation of the two trading instruments as currently being inactive. Also we note that US bond yields after dropping substantially on the 1 <\/sup> of August, have followed a slow but steadily upward direction, thus also signaling that the negative correlation of US bond yields and gold\u2019s price is inactive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we see a possible revival of the negative correlation of gold with the USD and should the USD be supported in the coming week, we may see the strengthening of the USD weighing on gold\u2019s price in the coming days.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-Sino trade truce extended<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Overall in the past week we noted an easing of the market\u2019s worries for Trump\u2019s trade wars. The highlight may have been yesterday Monday as the US and China agreed to extend the pause of tariff hikes against each other\u2019s products. Furthermore, we note that NVIDIA and AMD agreed to pay 15% of sales of chips in China to the US government, in another sign of easing of market worries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another issue that tended to weigh on gold\u2019s price and was directly related to gold, was the US President\u2019s post on social media that gold will not be tariffed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue emerged after a US judge ruled that some gold bullion imports were subject to the tariffs announced by US President Trump. Should we see market worries for US President Trump\u2019s trade wars ease further we may see gold\u2019s price weakening.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump-Putin meeting to be the next riddle<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Also we highlight the Trump-Putin meeting planned for Friday in Alaska. At the current stage, media are implying the possibility that a land swap may take place at which Russia will be allowed to keep Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine possibly for peace and a promise that Europe will not be invaded. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue tends to remain highly uncertain and the stakes remain high. It\u2019s characteristic that last week, US President Trump threatened China and India with additional tariffs if they continue buying Russian oil, because in that way they finance Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we see the two sides reaching a deal or even nearing one, easing market worries, we may see gold\u2019s price retreating. Yet we see Russia having little incentive to reach a deal at the current stage and should the two sides fail to reach a deal, we may see the market\u2019s uncertainty rising substantially and thus providing safe haven inflows for the precious metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upcoming financial releases that could affect gold\u2019s price<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US CPI rates for July were just released and tended to provide some slight support for gold\u2019s price. The release provided mixed signals for the markets as on the one hand the headline rate failed to accelerate as expected while the core rate accelerated beyond market expectations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we see July\u2019s PPI rates for the same month accelerating, providing a clearer picture for inflationary pressures in the US economy we may see the release weighing somewhat on gold\u2019s price. It may take a substantial surprise for the markets, in the release of July\u2019s US PPI rates to provoke a substantial move for gold\u2019s price. Other than that, we also note the release of the US retail sales growth rate for July, yet overall we expect in the coming week, for fundamentals to lead gold\u2019s price rather than financial releases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Gr\u00e1fico Diario<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n