{"id":121084,"date":"2025-10-06T11:42:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T08:42:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=121084"},"modified":"2026-01-16T14:22:54","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T12:22:54","slug":"jpy-weakens-after-elections-at-ldp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/es\/jpy-weakens-after-elections-at-ldp\/","title":{"rendered":"JPY weakens after elections at LDP"},"content":{"rendered":"

Japan\u2019s ruling party elected a new leader last Saturday. Sanae Takaichi has been elected as the party\u2019s new leader and is on course in becoming Japan\u2019s. Ms. Takaichi is considered as a hardline conservative and is expected to follow an expansionary fiscal policy while at the same time seems to be opposing BoJ\u2019s intentions to tighten its monetary policy further. The issue becomes critical in the sense that an expansionary fiscal policy could cause Japan\u2019s XLarge national Debt to balloon even further, while should BoJ stall in tightening its monetary policy, we may see inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy being revived. The vote for her to become PM is scheduled for the 15th of October and Ms. Takaichi will have to gain also the votes of junior member parties of the coalition. JPY was on the retreat since the start of today\u2019s Asian session, as was expected in Friday\u2019s report, across the board and should the market\u2019s hawkish expectations for BoJ ease further we may see JPY continuing to slip lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY rallied at today\u2019s opening breaking the 149.15 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We see the case for a bullish outlook to emerge given also that the RSI indicator has risen sharply above the reading of 50, implying the build up of a bullish market sentiment for the pair, yet on the flip side we also note that he pair\u2019s price action has breached the upper Bollinger band which may slow down the bulls if not cause a correction lower. Should the bullish momentum be maintained we may see the pair breaking the 151.20 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 154.65 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears find a chance and lead the pair lower we may see USD\/JPY breaking the 149.15 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 146.25 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further down the week we highlight on Wednesday the release of the Fed\u2019s September meeting minutes and expect the document to be scrutinised, by investors for any clues regarding the Fed\u2019s intentions. Should the bank signal extensive easing up until H126, we may see the greenback losing ground as the market\u2019s dovish expectations could be enhanced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold\u2019s price continued to rally in today\u2019s Asian and early session, aiming for the 4000 (R1) resistance line. The RSI indicator remains well above the reading of 70, implying a strong bullish market sentiment for gold, yet at the same time reminding traders that gold is at overbought levels and is ripe for a correction lower. Similar signals are being sent by the price action reaching the upper Bollinger band. We maintain our bullish outlook as long as the upward trendline guiding gold\u2019s price remains intact. Should the bulls continue leading gold\u2019s price, we may see it breaking the 4000 (R1) line and start aiming for the 4200 (R2) level. Should the bears take over, we may see gold\u2019s price the 3850 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 3710 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otros puntos destacados del d\u00eda:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In today\u2019s European session, we get the Euro Zone\u2019s Sentix figure for October and retail sales rate for August. On a monetary level we note the speeches by ECB Chief Economist Lane, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0En cuanto al resto de la semana:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday we get August\u2019s industrial orders of Germany, the UK\u2019s Halifax House Prices for September and Canada\u2019s trade data for August. On Wednesday, we get Japan\u2019s current account balance for August, from New Zealand RBNZ\u2019s interest rate decision, Germany\u2019s industrial output for August, Sweden\u2019s September preliminary CPI rates and the Fed is to release the minutes of its September meeting. On Thursday we get the weekly US initial jobless claims figure and on Friday we note the release of Sweden\u2019s GDP rate for August, Norway\u2019s CPI rates for September, Canada\u2019s employment data for the same month and the preliminary US University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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