US Financial releases to set the stage for tomorrow’s employment data

In the US, the US ADP Non-Farm employment change figure for August is set to be released during today’s American session. The financial release current expectations by economists are for the figure to come in at 143k which would be higher than last month’s, hence implying a resilient labour market, which in turn may aid the greenback. On the flip side, should the figure come in lower than expected, thus implying a loosening labour market it may instead weigh on the greenback.The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figure  for August is also set to be released during today’s American session, with economists anticipating the figure to come in at 51.2 which would be lower than the prior month’s figure of 51.4. Such a scenario may imply that the non-manufacturing sector of the US economy is expanding at a slower pace. In turn this may add to concerns about the resilience of the US economy and as such could weigh on the US dollar. Whereas  should the figure come in higher than expected, implying a greater expansion in the non-manufacturing sector of the US economy it may aid the greenback. Overall, the figure is expected to showcase that the US non-manufacturing sector is still expanding and thus may mitigate the negative implications of the expected figure.San Francisco Fed President Daly implied yesterday according to Reuters, that the Fed’s current monetary policy stance may lead to an over-tightening scenario, which in turn may lead to additional slowing in the labour market. In our view, we agree with the current market expectations that the Fed may cut by 25bp in their next monetary policy meeting as a delay in rate cuts could lead to an overtightening scenario for the US economy.

EUR/USD appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We opt for a bullish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 3   of September. However, the RSI indicator below our chart currently registers a figure near 50, which tends to imply a neutral market sentiment. Nonetheless, for our bullish outlook to continue , we would require a break above the 1.1105 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.1155 (R2) resistance level. On the flip side for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between the 1.1065 (S1) support line and the 1.1105 (R1) resistance level.Lastly,  for a  for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 1.1065 (S1) support line, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.1020 (S2) support line

WTICash appears to be moving in a downwards fashion after breaking below our support now turned resistance at the 71.50 (R1) level. We opt for a bearish outlook for the commodity and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 30 implying a strong bearish market sentiment, in addition to the break below our sideways moving channel which was incepted on the 31  of July. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would require a break below the 64.10 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 57.30 (S2) support line. On the flip side for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 71.50 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 78.00 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a sideways bias we would require the commodity to remain confined between the 64.10 (S1) support line and the 71.50 (R1) resistance line.

دیگر نکات مهم امروز:

Today in the European session, we get Germany’s industrial orders for July, Eurozone’s and UK’s construction PMI figures for August as well as Eurozone’s retail sales for July, while on the monetary front we note that ECB’s Tuominen and Buch are speaking. In the American session, we get from the US the ADP national employment figure for August, the weekly initial jobless claims figure and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for August, while oil traders may be more interested in the release of the EIA crude oil inventories figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s All Household spending for July.

EURUSD H4 Chart

• Support:  1.1065 (S1), 1.1020 (S2), 1.0955 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.1105 (R1), 1.1155 (R2),  1.1200 (R3)

WTICash Daily Chart

• Support: 64.10 (S1), 57.30 (S2), 51.35 (S3)
• Resistance: 71.50 (R1),  78.00 (R2),  83.45 (R3)

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