{"id":120935,"date":"2025-09-30T16:05:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T13:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=120935"},"modified":"2026-01-16T14:30:12","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T12:30:12","slug":"gold-outlook-us-government-shutdown-in-sight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/fa\/gold-outlook-us-government-shutdown-in-sight\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: US Government shutdown in sight"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price has continued in its upwards ascent, marking new all-time highs along the way since our last report<\/a>. In today\u2019s report on a fundamentals level, we are to have a look at the possible implications of a US Government shutdown tomorrow, and the upcoming release of the US Employment data on Friday. For a rounder view we are to conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Government shutdown looms over the markets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US Government could possibly shut down tomorrow<\/strong>. The US Government is on track to shut down in less than 15 hours, after President Trump and Congressional leaders failed to reach an 11th-hour agreement on Monday. Moreover, following the failed meeting, Vice President Vance<\/strong> stated that \u201cI think we are headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won\u2019t do the right thing\u201d after Democrats refused to approve the Republicans\u2019 request for a short-term agreement or a continuing resolution, which would extend the deadline and keep the Government running until the 21 <\/sup>   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a reminder, should the Government shut down, it would only be the 14 <\/sup> time that this has occurred. In our view a Government shutdown may not immediately influence the markets significantly, yet with this possible shutdown, there appear to be some concerns that it may not be resolved in the near term and could possibly be a prolonged shutdown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The possibility of a prolonged shutdown<\/strong>, could lead to an approximate decline in the quarterly GDP rate from 0.1% to 0.3% for each week that the Government<\/strong> is shut down, per Euronews and thus any prolonged shutdown could have dire consequences<\/strong> for the US economy. Therefore, should a government shutdown occur, the uncertainty and volatility that may ensue could funnel inflows into gold given its safe-haven asset status. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In conclusion, it is our view that the US Government may shut down as a result of a failure of the Democrats and Republicans to reach an amicable deal even a temporary one. Hence, should our view turn into reality, we may see gold\u2019s price moving higher for each day that passes where no concrete progress is made in order to reach an agreement to fund the Government. On the other hand, should an agreement be reached, gold\u2019s price could face some temporary outflows and may see its price moving lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Employment data this week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US Employment data<\/strong> is expected to be released on Friday and as usual, is expected to garner significant attention from market participants. The current expectations are for the Non-Farm Payrolls figure to come in at 39k and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3% and thus with the NFP figure expected to showcase a slight improvement since last months figure it could aid the dollar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, we must look at the bigger picture and thus a 39k figure still showcases a loosening labour market and could further spark worries about the state of the US Employment market in spite of the unemployment rate being expected to remain steady at 4.3% and thus any amplified worries could weigh on the dollar whilst aiding gold\u2019s price given their inverse relationship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, as we mentioned in our previous paragraph, the US Government could possibly shutdown tomorrow, which may result in a delay<\/strong> for the release of the Employment data. In turn a possible delay in the release of the US Employment data<\/strong> could lead to heightened volatility in the markets as the delay may cause concerns and speculations as to the current state of the US Employment market, which could weigh on the dollar and aid gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0646\u0645\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0686\u0647\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0647 \u0637\u0644\u0627 \/ \u062f\u0644\u0627\u0631 \u0622\u0645\u0631\u06cc\u06a9\u0627<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n