{"id":123195,"date":"2025-11-20T14:02:58","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T12:02:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=123195"},"modified":"2026-01-15T16:27:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:27:08","slug":"oil-outlook-oil-remains-steady-as-markets-await-us-employment-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/fa\/oil-outlook-oil-remains-steady-as-markets-await-us-employment-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: Oil remains steady as markets await US Employment data"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI\u2019s oil price appears to be moving in a predominantly sideways fashion.<\/a> In today\u2019s report we are to have a look at the state of the US oil market and continue to discuss fundamental issues regarding the demand and supply side of the international WTI market. We are to compliment the fundamental update with a technical analysis of WTI\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Employment data due out today<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US Employment data for September are due out today and could lead to significant volatility in the markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our reasoning is that, following yesterday\u2019s announcement from the BLS that the October jobs report will not be released, today\u2019s employment data marks the last time that the Fed will gain insight into the state of the US Labour market prior to their last monetary policy decision for the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, the Fed\u2019s last decision is set to occur on the 10th of December, whereas the November jobs report is due out on the 16th of December, hence today\u2019s release is of even greater importance. The current expectations by economists are for the NFP figure to improve, which could aid the dollar but when looking at the big picture, the state of the US labour market still remains relatively loose. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, for oil traders should concerns arise for the state of the US economy it may weigh on WTI prices as it may be inferred that there could be a reduction in economic activity which may translate to a reduction in demand for oil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, should the outlook for the US economy appear to improve it may have the opposite effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mixed data from the US oil market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We make a start with our comment about the state of the US oil market by noting that the number of active oil rigs in the US was reported by Baker Hughes last Friday, increased to 417, in a signal, possibly, that oil demand picked up in the US market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday, API reported that US crude oil inventories had risen by 4.4 million barrels, marking a notable increase from last week\u2019s 1.300 million barrels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reading showcases that aggregated oil demand in the US was surpassed by oil production levels for another week as oil stockpiling continues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, that image was countered on Wednesday with the release of the EIA weekly crude oil inventories which showcased a drawdown of -3.426 million barrels, which exceed the anticipated drawdown of -0.600 million barrels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, should the overall picture showcase an increase in oil inventories in the coming week it could weigh on oil prices and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US sanctions on Russian oil to be applied tomorrow<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that the sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil will come into effect tomorrow the 21st of November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In turn should market worries arise about the possible supply of oil into the market, post-sanction deadline it may have a bullish effect on oil prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, until the true impact of sanctions on the Russian oil companies emerges, the impact may be relatively muted.US sanctions on Russian oil to be applied tomorrowIt should be noted that the sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil will come into effect tomorrow the 21st of November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In turn should market worries arise about the possible supply of oil into the market, post-sanction deadline it may have a bullish effect on oil prices. However, until the true impact of sanctions on the Russian oil companies emerges, the impact may be relatively muted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-Russia draft new peace plan for Ukraine<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to the FT, the US and Russia have drafted a new peace plan for Ukraine. In turn the possibility of the plan being accepted by Ukraine could possibly weigh on oil prices as a peace plan could lead to a suspension and lifting on oil sanctions on Russia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, such a possibility could lead to an increase in the supply of oil into the market, which could in turn weigh on oil prices. Albeit, we should take any developments with a pinch of salt as previous attempts have been made and failed in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Technical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n