![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-89.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 BoE delays rate cuts by remaining on hold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
On a monetary level, we highlight BoE\u2019s interest rate decision which occurred yesterday. The bank kept interest rates steady at 4.75% with a 6-3 split decision. In the bank\u2019s accompanying statement, it appears in our opinion, that the bank remains concerned with inflation potentially remaining sticky in the UK, as \u201csome indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a macroeconomic level, it was a busy week for pound traders, with the release of the UK\u2019s employment ,inflation print and manufacturing PMI figures. Starting with the UK\u2019s employment data for October, we note that the releases tended to showcase a resilient UK labour market, which in turn may have provided the bank with some leeway to remain on hold. Yet, the preliminary manufacturing PMI figure for December came in lower than expected, implying a contraction in the country\u2019s manufacturing sector which may be a concern in 2025. However, most importantly the Core CPI rates for November came in lower than expected with Core CPI on a yoy level coming in at 3.5% versus the expected rate of 3.6%, although it should be said that it was still higher than last month\u2019s rate of 3.3% and thus showcases that the bank still has its work cut out for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analyst\u2019s Opinion<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Core CPI rate, may have come in lower than expected, but is still higher than last month\u2019s rate and thus we see the case being made by the BoE in regards to their concerns about sticky inflationary pressures. In our view, we would not be surprised to see the bank opting to see inflation moving in a predominantly downwards trajectory and thus should the sentiment emerging from policymakers be perceived as relatively hawkish, we would not be surprised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Bank of Japan has decided to keep interest rates steady at 0.25% , in their final meeting for the year. In particular, it appears that the bank is concerned about the potential risks to the Japanese economy stemming from President-elect Trump\u2019s economic policies. Specifically, BOJ Governor Ueda during his press conference yesterday stated that the \u201cdecision to keep rates was mainly based on assessment of wage trends, uncertainties of overseas economies and next US administration\u2019s policies\u201d. Essentially, it appears that the bank\u2019s concerns about Trump\u2019s economic policies in addition to their desire to gain \u201ca little bit more info on wage trends\u201d tended to influence the bank\u2019s decision to remain on hold. Nonetheless, we would be interested in the release of the BOJ\u2019s summary of opinions for their December meeting next week on the 27th of December and their last meeting minutes on the 24th of December, which may shed some light on the bank\u2019s internal deliberations as we should note the decision was not unanimous, with one member opting for a 50bp rate hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macro level, we note the release of the Tokyo CPI rates also on the 27th of December. Should the CPI rates come in higher than the prior rate of 2.6%, and thus imply an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy, it may increase pressure on the BoJ to continue on their monetary normalization path. On the flip side, should the CPI rate come in lower than the prior rate, it may provide the bank with some leeway should they opt to delay hiking interest rates in the future. Moreover, we would like to note the release of Japan\u2019s CPI rates for November earlier on today, which came in hotter than expected and thus could aid the JPY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are now seeing central banks taking into account the incoming US administration’s economic policies, which in itself is fascinating to observe. Yet, we maintain our opinion that the bank will continue normalizing its monetary policy in 2025 and thus, the economic policies from the US could delay but not scrap potential rate hikes by the BOJ in the new year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level, we highlight ECB President Lagarde\u2019s comments earlier on this week, in which she claimed that \u201cthe darkest days of winter look to be behind us\u201d, essentially implying that the bank is close to declaring victory against inflation. The comments made by the ECB President could be perceived as predominantly dovish in nature, as her comments may imply that the bank may continue cutting interest rates with the new year. In particular, she stated that \u201c The direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hence on a macroeconomic level, Germany\u2019s and France\u2019s manufacturing PMI figures continue to delve deeper into contraction territory by coming in lower than expected and lower than their prior figures as well. On another note, the HICP rate on a year-on-year level for November came in lower than expected implying easing inflationary pressures in the zone and thus may provide the ECB with greater confidence to continue cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion<\/p>\n\n\n\n Overall we maintain our view that Germany\u2019s and France\u2019s economies are in trouble. Moreover, we continue to maintain our belief that the ECB may have no other option but to cut interest rates with the new year, which is supported by the comments made by ECB President Lagarde and the HICP rates which were released earlier this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level we note that RBA\u2019s last meeting minutes are due out on Tuesday the 24th of December. Aussie traders may be looking for further confirmation that \u201cinflation is moving sustainably towards target.” Moreover, market participants may be looking for signs in the bank\u2019s minutes that the bank may be preparing to cut interest rates. In turn this could weigh on the Aussie, whereas should the bank\u2019s minutes fail to showcase a willingness for potential rate cuts in the future, it could aid the AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, it\u2019s been a relatively easy going week for Aussie traders, and that appears to be the case for next week as well. However, given Australia\u2019s close economic ties with China, traders may be interested in the release of China\u2019s NBS manufacturing PMI figure for December on the 31st of December and the Caixin manufacturing PMI figure also for December on the 2nd of January 2025. Should China\u2019s manufacturing PMI figures, exceed the prior figures it may imply a strengthening of the manufacturing sector of China\u2019s economy. In turn, a strengthening of the Chinese manufacturing sector may lead to increase demand for raw materials stemming from Australia and thus could aid the AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion<\/p>\n\n\n\n Focus of Aussie traders is expected to be on China in the coming week and with the start of the new year, as a main factor of concern given the close Sino-Australian ties. Overall, we remain concerned about China\u2019s economy heading in 2025 and thus would not be surprised to see a struggling manufacturing sector in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The CAD continued weakening for a third week in a row against the USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic, Canada\u2019s headline CPI rates for November came in lower than expected, at 1.9% versus 2% on a year-on-year level and 0% versus 0.1% on a month-on-month level. The lower\u0002than-expected headline CPI rates tended to move in tandem with the Core CPI rates for November, essentially showcasing easing inflationary pressures in the Canadian economy. In turn this may provide the BoC with greater confidence, should they wish to continue on their rate-cutting cycle. Of some interest may be Canada\u2019s final GDP rate on a mom level for October which is due out on Monday the 23rd of December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Furthermore, we would like to note that Canada\u2019s retail sales rate for October have yet to be released and thus could influence the CAD. In particular, the core retail sales rate on a mom level for October is expected to come in at 0.2% which would be lower than the prior month\u2019s rate of 0.9%. Such a scenario could imply that the Canadian consumer may be spending less and thus may further amplify calls for the BoC to continue cutting rates which may weigh on the CAD and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion<\/p>\n\n\n\n We tend to remain bearish for the CAD in the coming week, given this week\u2019s CPI rates which may provide the bank with greater confidence to continue on their rate cutting cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Overall we expect market activity in the coming week to be relatively muted, as we enter the Christmas Holiday season, with minimal financial releases expected. However, the risks for elevated volatility remain, as a few market participants could impact the market, given the lack of activity during the Christmas period. Moreover, we expect volatility to pick up with the new year, with some number of high-impact financial releases in the first week and second week of January and we highlight particularly the US Employment Report for December. In regards to US stock markets, we saw the bears take control on Thursday, yet on a general level the US stock markets moved significantly higher during the year, and with Trump set to take office in January 2025, they may experience newfound support. Lastly, on a geopolitical level, the situation in general in the Middle East appears to be stabilizing as we shift our focus towards Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Happy holidays from the IronFX Research Team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0627\u06af\u0631 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u06cc\u0627 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u06cc \u06a9\u0644\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u062f\u060c \u0644\u0637\u0641\u0627\u064b \u0627\u06cc\u0645\u06cc\u0644 \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0647 \u062a\u06cc\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u06cc\u0642\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0641\u0631\u0633\u062a\u06cc\u062fresearch_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/i> <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0633\u0644\u0628 \u0645\u0633\u0626\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062a: As the week draws into a close markets are slowly entering a sleep mode for the holiday season. We note<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-96560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-90.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 BoJ remains on hold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-91.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 CPI rates showcase easing inflationary pressures in the zone<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-92.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 RBA minutes due out next week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-93.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 Canada\u2019s easing inflationary pressures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-94.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGeneral Comment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0648\u0631\u0647 \u0633\u0631\u0645\u0627\u06cc\u0647 \u06af\u0630\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u06cc\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u06cc\u0647 \u0633\u0631\u0645\u0627\u06cc\u0647 \u06af\u0630\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u06af\u0631\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0646\u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f \u060c \u0628\u0644\u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0639\u0648\u0636 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0628\u0627\u0632\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0627\u0628\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a. IronFX \u0647\u06cc\u0686 \u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u0633\u0626\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062a\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0642\u0628\u0627\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0647\u0627 \u06cc\u0627 \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u06a9\u0647 \u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0634\u062e\u0627\u0635 \u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0631\u062c\u0627\u0639 \u0648 \u06cc\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0648\u0646\u062f \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0646\u062f \u0646\u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"