US JOLTs figure due today

The US Jolts job openings figure for the month of June is set to be released during today’s American session. The current expectations by economists are for the figure to come in at 8.020M which would be lower than the prior figure of 8.140M. Such a scenario may imply a loosening labour market and thus may increase pressure of the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance in their monetary policy meeting which is set to occur on Wednesday. In our view, for the Fed’s stance to be influenced, the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls figure for the same month which is due out tomorrow, would also need to showcase a loosening labour market which does not appear to be the case currently as the figure is expected to increase to 166k from 150k. Nonetheless, should the JOLTs job openings figure come in as expected or lower it could weigh on the greenback and vice versa.

Over in Europe, Germany’s and the Eurozone’s preliminary GDP rates for Q2 are set to be released today. For Germany, their economy is expected to have remained stagnant on a yoy level with the GDP rate expected to come in at 0% which would be higher than the prior contraction of -0.2%. Moreover, for the Eurozone as a whole the preliminary GDP rate for Q2 also on a yoy level is expected to come in at 0.6% which would be higher than the prior rate of 0.4%. As such, should the rates come in as expected, it would imply economic growth in the Eurozone as a whole, which in turn may aid the common currency.

EUR/USD appears to be downwards fashion. We opt for a bearish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the downwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 17   of July, in addition to the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure below 40, implying a bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would require a clear break below the 1.0802 (S1) support line, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.0740 (S2) support line. On the flip side for a sideways bias, we would require the pair to remain confined between the sideways moving channel defined by the 1.0802 (S1) support line and the 1.0865 (R1) resistance level. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 1.0865 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.0940 (R2) resistance level.

USD/JPY appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We opt for a bullish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the clear break above our downwards-moving trendline which was incepted on the 11   of July, in addition to the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure just below 60, implying a bullish market sentiment may be emerging. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would require a clear break above the 156.20 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 159.10 (R2) resistance level. On the flip side for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between the sideways moving channel defined by the 153.35 (S1) support line and the 156.20 (R1) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 153.35 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 150.28 (S2) support line.

Other highlights for the day

Today in the European session, we get France’s preliminary GDP rate for Q2, Switzerland’s KOF indicator for July, the Czech Republic’s preliminary GDP rate for Q2, Germany’s preliminary GDP rate for Q2, Eurozone’s economic sentiment for July and Germany’s preliminary HICP rates for July. In the American session, we get from the US the JOLT Job openings for June, while oil traders may be more interested in the release of the weekly API crude oil inventories figure. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we get New Zealand’s Building consents for June, from Japan the preliminary industrial output and retail sales growth rates, both for June, China’s NBS PMI figures for July and Australia’s CPI rates Q2 and June.

EUR/USD 4H Chart

• Support: 1.0802 (S1), 1.0740 (S2), 1.0670 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0865 (R1), 1.0940 (R2), 1.1005 (R3)

USD/JPY 4H Chart

• Support: 153.35 (S1), 150.28 (S2), 147.38 (S3)
• Resistance: 156.20 (R1), 159.10 (R2), 161.70 (R3)

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