{"id":125861,"date":"2025-12-11T15:45:51","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T13:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=125861"},"modified":"2026-01-15T15:22:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T13:22:07","slug":"oil-outlook-us-escalates-tensions-with-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/fr\/oil-outlook-us-escalates-tensions-with-venezuela\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook:US escalates tensions with Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI\u2019s price appears to have moved lower since last week<\/a>. In today\u2019s report, we are to have a look at fundamental issues that could alter its direction, including the US\u2019s seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, the \u00a0peace plan for the war in Ukraine, and China\u2019s technological developments in oil fracking. We are to conclude the report with a technical analysis of WTI\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US seizes a Venezuelan oil tanker<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US in an apparent escalation of tensions against Venezuela, seized a sanctioned oil tanker of the coast of Venezuela<\/strong>. Per President Trump<\/strong> \u201cWe’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, large tanker, very large, largest one ever, actually, and other things are happening\u201d, with Venezuela responding that the seizure was an \u201cact of international piracy\u201d. The seizing of a Venezuelan oil tanker, even a sanctioned one still marks an escalation in tensions between Washington and Caracas, considering Venezuela\u2019s oil exports<\/strong> are essentially their economic lifeline. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this analyst\u2019s opinion, the US may be wary of replacing Maduro<\/strong> with the use of direct military force such as troops on the ground and thus a more political friendly method could be by the exertion of economic pressures. For example, should the US continue to disrupt Venezuela\u2019s oil shipments it may increase pressure internally for a change to be made, which could pave the way forward for the \u2018installation\u2019 of a more pro-western President in the nation. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Initially, the seizure of an oil tanker may have aided oil prices as worries about further seizures may have spooked participants, considering Venezuela exports 900,000 bpd and thus further seizures could threaten the supply of oil into the market. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, let\u2019s look at the larger picture and the hypothetical scenario where the US continues pulling the economic lever to force a regime change in Venezuela. Such a scenario, where a pro-US administration is installed could weigh on oil prices, as sanctions may be lifted on Venezuelan oil exports which in turn could rapidly increase the supply of oil into the global market. Nonetheless, we should remind our readers that at this point in time, such a scenario remains a hypothetical.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine-Russia peace deal<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine and Russia<\/strong> could be heading towards a possible peace deal. According President Zelensky, Ukraine alongside its European allies, will be presenting the US with refined documents on a peace plan meant to end the war with Russia. Specifically, Zelensky stated the following \u201cThe Ukrainian and European components are now more developed, and we are ready to present them to our partners in the U.S.,\u201d. Considering how many attempts have been made by both sides, we remain sceptical as to whether or not actual progress will be made in ending the war. Nonetheless, any viable prospects for peace could weigh on oil prices, as an end to the war could result in the suspension of sanctions on Russian oil exports, thus potentially resulting in an influx of oil barrels entering the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s shale fracking<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to some media reports, China<\/strong> has achieved significant breakthroughs<\/strong> in it\u2019s shale fracking<\/strong> technology following the announcement that the Jimsar<\/strong> shale<\/strong> oil<\/strong> demonstration zone in Xinjiang<\/strong> has reached its annual crude oil output goal of 1.7 million tonnes.  Although this may appear to be a significant development, it\u2019s short term impact may be relatively muted as the volume itself may not be large enough to influence the global oil markets. Nevertheless, the developments may have a long term impact on oil prices in the future should they reach much higher output volumes which in turn could weigh on oil prices in the future and thus developments of China\u2019s fracking technology warrant attention from market participants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"EUR\/USD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n