\u201cOverall we see the case for the bearish tendencies of the market for the USD to remain with market attention increasingly being placed on the economic outlook of the US. Further worries for the US economy to slow down or even contract could drive the USD lower, while a possible enhancement of the Fed\u2019s doubts to cut rates could allow for some respite for USD bears.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, we note the easing of Uks\u2019 house prices for the past month as well as the slower than initially estimated expansion of economic activity in the UK services sector for the past month. At the end of the coming week, we note the release of February\u2019s GDP rate as well as other growth data for the same month related to the UK economy. Should the data imply a continuation of the contraction of the UK economy the release could weigh on the pound. On a monetary level, BoE seems to maintain some worries for a persistence of inflationary pressures in the UK economy as expressed on Tuesday by BoE policymaker Greene. It should be noted though that imposition of tariffs by the US could alter the bank\u2019s stance. The market currently seems to expect the bank to cut rates by 25 basis points in tis May meeting and another cut in the August meeting and marginally prices in another rate cut in the December meeting. Hence should BoE policymakers which are scheduled to speak in the coming week, express further doubts for cutting rates, we may see the pound getting some support. On a fundamental level, it\u2019s a positive that the US has imposed only the general blanket tariffs on UK products of 10%, which was the lowest imposed. Yet as UK PM noted US tariffs will clearly have economic impact on the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (GBP)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOverall we see the interest of pound traders climaxing until Friday when the UK GDP rates are to be released. On a monetary level, any intentions of BoE policymakers to maintain the bank\u2019s monetary level, at restrictive levels, could support the pound.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Japanese economic data released past week tended to be mixed. In the demand side of the Japanese economy, the wider than expected slowdown of the retail sales growth rate for February, was a negative. On the production side, we note the acceleration of the industrial output rate for February, while the Tankan indexes for Q1 sent mixed signals, a positive for the services sector and a negative for the manufacturing sector, with the latter possibly weighing more. In the coming week, we note the corporate goods prices rate for March, for the inflationary front while the current account balance for March may also stir some interest. On a monetary level, we note the market\u2019s expectations for the BoJ to proceed with a rate hike possibly in July or September. Yet BoJ Governor Ueda warned of the possible hit to global trade from the US tariffs. Yet we still tend to maintain the view that the Bank is to maintain its hawkish intentions and highlight BoJ Governor UEDA\u2019s speech next Wednesday, in search of further clues regarding the bank\u2019s intentions. Any hawkish comments could provide support for the JPY. On a fundamental level, the imposition of relatively high US tariffs on Japanese products could weigh on the JPY, if considered at aa compounded way and in relevance to other economies such as the EU. Also the safe haven qualities of the JPY should not be underestimated on a fundamental level, in these times of turbulence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (JPY) <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere are some financial data due out next week and Trump\u2019s tariffs on Japanese products tend to weigh, yet the main factor for JPY\u2019s direction next week, may be BoJ\u2019s stance. Should we see some hawkish intentions be expressed by BoJ policymakers in the coming week, we may see the JPY getting some support.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Focus of EUR traders tends to revolve around the fundamentals surrounding the common currency. It\u2019s characteristic that the need for political stability within the EU, the \u201cbetrayal\u201d of the US in the Ukraine war, the need for increased fiscal spending on defence and infrastructure but also a search for the role of the EU on the global scene, highlights the uncertainty surrounding the single currency. On the one hand, Germany\u2019s decisiveness to reach deep into the fiscal pocket tends to be supportive for the EUR, while on the other the recent US tariffs on European products tend to intensify the pressure on the EU economic outlook. Any further indications of increased fiscal spending on an EU level, could support the common currency. On a monetary level, we note ECB President Lagarde\u2019s warning for the possible adverse effects of the US tariffs. It\u2019s characteristic that Germany\u2019s Bundesbank President Nagel stated that the situation will have to be reassessed. The release of the ECB\u2019s account of monetary policy meeting tends to verify that the bank is be more cautious in rate setting and communication in light of the uncertainty in the international economy. For the time being and after the announcement of the US tariffs, the market seems to expect another two, maybe three rate cuts by the bank until the end of the year, thus a dovish orientation seems to be dominant in market expectations for ECB\u2019s actions. Should bank officials express more hawkish intentions we may see the EUR getting some support. As for financial releases, we note the further easing of inflationary pressures in the Euro Zone for March yet in the coming week, with the exception Germany\u2019s industrial output for February and Euro Zone\u2019s Sentix index for April, we have a rather light calendar for EUR traders, hence we see the case for fundamentals to lead the way for the single currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (EUR)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0\u201cConflicting fundamentals tend to tantalize EUR traders yet a more decisive approach in fiscal spending could provide some support for the common currency. On a monetary level, should ECB officials maintain a dovish tone in the coming week, we may see them weighing on the EUR. As for financial releases, we note a rather light calendar for EUR traders in the coming week, which could allow fundamentals to play a key role in EUR\u2019s direction\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Making a start for the Aussie with RBA\u2019s interest rate decision last Tuesday, the bank remained on hold as expected. The bank\u2019s accompanying statement noted, \u201cMany central banks have eased monetary policy since the start of the year, but they have become increasingly attentive to the evolving risks from recent global policy developments.\u201d Implying that the RBA as well is concerned over the global economy. In turn this may be perceived as slightly hawkish in nature, with the bank potentially aiming to acquire further information before resuming on its rate cutting path. We expect RBA Governor Bullock\u2019s speech next Thursday to shed some light in regards to the bank\u2019s intentions. A possibly hawkish tone could provide some support for the Aussie. On a fundamental level, Trump\u2019s tariffs were the key issue for Aussie traders and given the market\u2019s perception of AUD being a riskier asset in the FX market, given its commodity nature, a possible resurgence of a cautious market sentiment could weigh on AUD. Please note that the issue may have dovish implications for RBA\u2019s monetary policy and should such intentions be expressed by RBA policymakers in the coming week we may see them weighing on AUD. Also an issue that may have passed under the radar was the rise of the manufacturing PMI figures of China for March, which were promising in regards to the possibility of more exports of Australian raw material. On a macro level, though we note the considerable narrowing of Australia\u2019s trade surplus for February, which is not good news and intend to focus on consumer and business health data in the coming week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (AUD) \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cGiven the light calendar for Aussie traders in the coming week we expect fundamentals to dominate Aussie traders\u2019 considerations. Major issues which are expected to play a key role in AUD\u2019s directions are RBA\u2019s intentions and the ongoing trade wars\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n We start our comment for the Loonie by noting that Canada\u2019s employment data for March are still to be released as these lines are written and could potentially affect the CAD\u2019s direction in a material way. On a macro level though we note the wider contraction of economic activity for Canada\u2019s manufacturing sector as well as the trade surplus noted for February both being negative signals for the outlook of the Canadian economy. In the coming week may be with the exception of the release of Canada\u2019s building permits growth rate for February next Thursday, the calendar seems to be lacking the release of any high impact financial releases for Loonie traders, thus fundamentals could be the main determinant for CAD\u2019s direction. Despite Canada being exempted by Trump\u2019s 10% blanket tariff, the tensions are another minus sign for the Canadian economic outlook and a possible escalation of the allready existing bitter USCanadian trade war, may we remind our readers for the auto tariffs imposed on Canada, could weigh on the Canadian Dollar. On the other hand we also note the wide drop of oil prices on Thursday, as oil demand is expected to drop given trump\u2019s tarifs and should the bearish direction of the black gold be maintained in the coming week, we may see the CAD retreating, given Canada\u2019s status as a major oil producing economy. On a monetary level, the market\u2019s dovish expectations for the Bank of Canada are still present as a rate cut is anticipated by the market in the cbank\u2019s next meeting. The market also expects the bank to deliver four more rate cuts in total within the year. Any indications towards a possibly tighter than what is expected monetary policy by BoC, could provide support for the Loonie and vice versa.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (CAD)\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOverall given the lack of high impact financial releases from Canada in the coming week, we expect fundamentals to lead the way. Issues such as BoC\u2019s intentions, the path of oil prices and the US-Canadian trade war are expected to provide direction for the Loonie.\u201d<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n As a closing comment we would like to discuss a bit further the possibility of a trade war which was enhanced by the US tariffs. The US tariffs are in two layers, the first is a general blanket tariff of 10% across countries, while a number of countries get an additional tariff percentage for various reasons which could include currency manipulation, a US trade deficit or others. As we are ending the report, we see headlines that China has announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all US products, while there are intentions for retaliations from Canada, the EU and other countries. Our worries now tend to be placed on the scenario that the US may weaponize also the finance markets and possibly monetary policy, a scenario that could take the tensions in another level. It\u2019s no secret that the US President had laid on the table the idea of a devaluation of the USD, through an appreciation of other currencies, in order for US exports to become more attractive. On the other hand the EU may retaliate not in kind but by raising barriers of entry for US tech companies, which would be signaling the expansion of the trade wars also in the services sector. I any case the existing tensions are threatening growth in major economies with the US not being exempted from such a scenario and a recession with all the possible negative consequences for the markets, seems to be ad portas.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-21.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 February\u2019s growth data in focus <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-22.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 BoJ\u2019s intentions in the epicenter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-23.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 The EU in a deep vision quest\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-24.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 Renewed cautious sentiment could weigh on AUD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-25.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 Intensifying trade war to weigh on the Loonie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-26.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGeneral Comment\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n