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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 Employment and Inflation data ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
We make a start by noting on a monetary level that the BoE per Sky stated in it\u2019s biannual health check of the UK\u2019s financial system that \u201cThe outlook for UK growth over the coming year is a little weaker and more uncertain\u201d as a result of President Trump\u2019s tariffs amongst other reasons. In turn concerns about the health of the UK financial system could lead the bank of a more \u2018dovish\u2019 path, which in turn may weigh on the sterling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a macroeconomic level, we note that next week, trader\u2019s may be interested in the release of the UK\u2019s CPI rates for June on Wednesday, where a hotter than expected inflation print could increase pressure on the bank to withhold from cutting rates in their next meeting and could in turn aid the sterling and vice versa. Moreover, the UK\u2019s employment data for June as well is set to be released on Thursday, adding a continued interest for the pound towards the end of the week. A resilient labour market could provide some leeway for the bank to remain on hold, whereas a loosening labour market could increase calls for further rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a fundamental level, we note the recent collaboration between the UK and France for nuclear weapons. According to a report by the FT \u201cThe UK and France have pledged for the first time to co-ordinate the use of their nuclear weapons, saying they would jointly respond to protect Europe from any extreme threat.\u201d A more friendlier relation between the UK and it\u2019s European neighbours could possibly aid the UK Equities markets down the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analyst\u2019s opinion (GBP)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Interest may pick up in the Sterling in the coming week, given the release of the nation\u2019s CPI rates and unemployment data. In our view the CPI rates are crucial and could allow the bank to continue on their rate cutting cycle, which may weigh on the pound. Yet, the employment data is also crucial for the UK therefore we would not be surprised to see heightened volatility in the cable in the coming week<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level, we note BOJ board member Koeda stated that \u201cinappropriate to say now specific timing of next rate hike due to high uncertainty over the economic outlook\u201d. Although it showcases uncertainty as to when the next rate hike will occur, it does imply that there may be a next rate hike which could be perceived as slightly hawkish in nature. In turn should further BOJ policymakers in the coming week hint that a rate hike may be in the cards for the bank in the near future it could aid the JPY<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, we note that Japan\u2019s nationwide CPI for June is set to be released next Friday. Should the CPI rates showcase an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the US economy it could aid the JPY, whereas easing inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy may have the opposite effect and weigh on the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a fundamental level we noted last week that a US trade deal with Japan before the 9th of July deadline may not occur which we correctly noted in last weeks report. Yet with the deadline pushed to the 1st of August there is still some hope for Japan to reach an agreement. The reason as to why we say \u201chope\u201d is because Japan now faces a 25% tariff as stated by President Trump earlier on this week. Thus should the following round of negotiations fail to bear fruit it may negative influence the Japanese equities markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (JPY)<\/p>\n\n\n\n In our view next week\u2019s inflation print may be of interest by the BOJ, yet the bank may be more interested in seeing as to how the trade negotiations with the US play out as it may be a source of great uncertainty for the bank. Therefore we wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see hints for possible rate hikes in the future but not before a trade agreement has been reached with the US<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macro level we note that Germany\u2019s ZEW figures for July are set to be released next Tuesday. Given Germany\u2019s significance as one of the largest economies in the Zone, the financial releases composed of the economic sentiment and current conditions in Germany may influence the EUR. Thus should the figures showcase an improvement from last month it may be perceived as a positive and could in turn aid the EUR. Whereas should the figures showcase a deterioration if may weigh on the common currency<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level, we note the comments made by ECB member Nagel who per Bloomberg stated that \u201cYet it would be unwise to commit to a certain interest-rate path, to envisage a further step or indeed, to rule it out\u201d implying that the current situation is still uncertain, yet the overall tone could be perceived as a hesitation for the bank to commit to any particular path. Nonetheless, in our opinion the comments made by ECB Nagel could be interpreted as slightly hawkish in nature. Overall, should further ECB policymakers showcase a hesitancy to cut rates in the near future, it may aid the EUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a fundamental level we note that the EU is amongst the other US trading partners who are still attempting to reach a trade agreement. President Trump this week stated that he would \u201cprobably\u201d tell the EU what rate to expect for its exports to the US. However with President Trump stating that the bloc was much more cooperative and thus the EU may be able to a strike a relatively decent deal with the US which could aid the European Equities markets<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (EUR)<\/p>\n\n\n\n In our view, although the ZEW figures are important, the ongoing trade negotiations with the US may take the market\u2019s attention in the coming week, especially considering that the recent tariff announcements by President Trump have led to a resurgence of market speculation as to what may come next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macro level, we note for next week Australia\u2019s employment data for June which is set to be released next Thursday. Should the nation\u2019s employment data showcase a loosening labour market, it could weigh on the Aussie. Whereas should the employment data showcase a resilient labour market it could potentially aid the Aussie. Moreover, of interest may be the unemployment rate which currently stands at 4.1% and thus it\u2019s release may have a greater impact on the Aussie over the employment change figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a monetary level, we note that the RBA\u2019s interest rate decision occurred this week and last week AUD OIS had implied an 84.6% probability for the bank to cut rates by 25 basis points. However, that was not the case as the bank took the markets by surprise by remaining on hold. Moreover in the bank\u2019s accompanying statement it was stated that \u201cNevertheless it remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply\u201d, potentially as a result of the uncertainty about the world economy which has emerged due to the US tariffs and policy responses from other countries. Thus, should the tariff bonanza lead to heightened uncertainty once again it may lead to a more restrictive stance by RBA policymakers whereas should trade deals be signed, it could ease the worries presented by RBA policymakers which in turn could pave the way forward for the bank to continue cutting rates<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a fundamental level, we highlight China\u2019s GDP rate for Q2 on Tuesday which is expected by economists to come in at 5.2% which would be lower than the rate of 5.4% of Q1. In turn such a scenario could weigh on the AUD as well give their close economic ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (AUD)<\/p>\n\n\n\n The RBA’s decision to remain on hold took the markets by surprise, yet considering how we are still discussing new tariffs which are being imposed and a new deadline of the 1st of August, can we really be that surprised that the bank decided to remain on hold?. Nonetheless, attention may be on the release of Australia\u2019s employment data next week<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, we note that Canada\u2019s CPI rates for June are set to be release next Tuesday. Market participants may be interested in the afformentioned financial release for obvious reasons as it may showcase the state of inflation in the Canadian economy. Therefore, should the inflation print showcase easing inflationary pressures in the Canadian economy it could potentially weigh on the Loonie and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a fundamental level, some reports have emerged that OPEC may be considering, pausing their output hikes after their next increase. In turn a restriction of the supply of oil into the market could aid oil prices and thus could also aid the CAD given Canada\u2019s status as an oil exporting nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (CAD)<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-54.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 Inflation data ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 Germany\u2019s ZEW figures due out next week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 RBA surprisingly remains on hold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 Inflation data ahead for Loonie traders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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