Attention turns to July’s US ISM manufacturig PMI figure

The USD gained against its counterparts yesterday, after a Fed’s survey indicated that banks in the US, had tighter credit standards and lower loan demand in Q2 23, which in turn was interpreted as a signal the Fed’s monetary policy tightening had an impact on the US economy on a cumulative level.

We expect attention today to turn to the ISM manufacturing PMI figure for July which is to gauge the economic activity level of the sector given that despite an acceleration of the GDP rate for Q2 the US manufacturing sector remains the “problem child” of the US economy. The figure is expected to rise, yet remain below the cut-off point of 50, implying another contraction of economic activity for the sector, the 9 month in a row. Should the indicator’s reading drop below June’s 46, which was a post-pandemic low we may see the USD weakening.

On other news, we note that RBA remained on hold in today’s meeting at 4.1%, as was expected. In Governor Lowe’s accompanying statement it’s mentioned that the bank chose to remain on hold as “This will provide further time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook” while also mentioned that “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks”. The decision was perceived by market participants as dovish and tended to weigh on the Aussie at the time of the release. Furthermore, the market seems to expect that the bank has reached it’s terminal rate and is to remain on hold until the end of the year according to AUDOIS. Hence, we may see monetary policy outlook differentials weighing somewhat on the Aussie, albeit we have to note here that other central banks such as the BoC, ECB and the Fed are nearing or may have reached their terminal rate as well.

Given the movement of the past 48 hours we recalibrated AUD/USD, which hit a ceiling on the 0.6725 (R1) resistance line and corrected lower. Given that the pair was unable to break the R1 we tend to maintain a bias for a sideways motion. Yet we note that the RSI indicator is nearing the reading of 30 implying the existence of some bearish sentiment among market participants for the pair. For a bearish outlook though we would require the pair to break the 0.6620 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6545 (S2) support base. Should the bulls take over, we may see the pair reversing course breaking the upper boundary of its current sideways motion namely the 0.6725 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.6810 (R2) resistance hurdle.

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Today in the European session, we note the release of UK’s nationwide House prices for July as well as Germany’s and the UK’s final manufacturing PMI figures for July. In the American session, we note the release of Canada’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI figure and from the US we get June’s JOLTS job opening figure, while oil traders may be more interested in the release of the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note that Bank of Japan releases Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting held on Jun. 15 and 16 and we highlight New Zealand’s employment data for Q2.

On a technical level, NZD/USD maintained a its sideways motion between the 0.6230 (R1) and the 0.6120 (S1) levels. Given also that the RSI indicator is running along the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market, we tend to maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue. Should the pair find extensive fresh buying orders along its path we may see the pair breaking the 0.6230 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.6305 (R2) resistance level. Should a selling interest be expressed by the market we may see the pair breaking the 0.6120 (S1) support level and we set as the next possible target for the bears the 0.6050 (S2) support barrier.