Crypto Outlook: BTC halving nears

Since our last report, the price of Bitcoin appears to have attempted to take another stab at its all-time high level of $73,500 per coin but has failed to break above the historic level. Crypto bulls seem to have eased their aggressiveness, with some hesitancy appearing to emerge on behalf of the bulls to maintain their control over the coin’s direction. In this report, we aim to shed light on the possible factors aiding to the recent developments in combination with a technical analysis of Bitcoin.

Crypto: Overview Report

ARK21Shares Bitcoin ETF hits $243M in Daily net inflows

According to data by BitMex Research, on the 27th of March, Cathy Wood’s Ark21Shares Bitcoin ETF, hit a new record high of $243M in net inflows for the day. The new record high could imply that investor appetite for Bitcoin appears to be on the rise and as such could be facilitating an influx of investor funds into Cathy Wood’s Ark BTC ETF. Furthermore, should demand for Bitcoin continue to increase, it could also provide support for Bitcoin’s price in the long run, as more funds could continue entering the crypto market and in particular, Bitcoin given its status as the most well-known cryptocurrency.

As a result, the price of Bitcoin could benefit from the potential influx of investors into the crypto market, as more funds may be allocated to the purchasing of Bitcoin and could be held as reserves, which may decrease market volatility.

SEC vs Coinbase legal battle intensifies

The SEC filed a lawsuit against popular cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (#COIN) last July, in which the regulator alleges that the company was acting as an unregistered broker and exchange. According to CNBC, last Wednesday the judge presiding over the case ruled that the SEC’s claim that the cryptocurrency exchange engaged in unregistered sales of securities, could be heard by a jury at trial. The trial could potentially impact the crypto markets, as the SEC could name cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities being sold by Coinbase, in order to prove its case against the company.

Therefore, in the event that the SEC wins its legal battle or appears to be on track to do so, it could weigh on crypto-markets, as cryptocurrencies could find themselves designated as securities, which may act as a barrier to new investors looking to divest their holdings into riskier assets. Moreover, a lengthy legal battle could sour market optimism and thus could weigh on the price of Bitcoin given its status as the “king of crypto”, and its exposure to news-based sentiment. Nonetheless, for now, it may not materially impact the crypto markets, as the case is only just beginning. Yet may be worth monitoring as the trial progresses to the courtroom.

Bitcoin’s halving set to occur this month

Bitcoin’s price appears to be stabilizing as the highly anticipated halving is expected to occur this month. Market volatility may remain elevated and could intensify as the date nears. Overall Bitcoin’s halving appears to have remained as one of the main drivers fundamentally supporting Bitcoin’s price.

Furthermore, the potential consolidation of the coin as it becomes even harder to acquire, could entice a large number of investors who up until now may have been unwilling to enter the market. As such, should more investors enter the crypto market and load up on Bitcoin, it could potentially provide support for the coin’s price as the halving date nears.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 62760 (S1), 51800 (S2), 43500 (S3)
• Resistance: 73165 (R1), 80000 (R2), 88000 (R3)

BTC/USD in the past week, attempted to take a stab at its all-time-high figure but appears to have fallen short of its target. For the time being, we opt to maintain our sideways bias for the coin and supporting our case is the narrowing of the Bollinger bands which imply low market volatility, the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market.

Moreover, the coin’s price appears to be on track to break below the upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 6th of February, which could further support our aforementioned bias. For our neutral outlook to continue, we would like to see the coin remain confined between the 62760 (S1) support level and the 73165 (R1) resistance line.

On the other hand for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 73165 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 80000 (R2) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 62760 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 51800 (S2) support line. Please note that there appears to be an emergence of some bearish tendencies.

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위험 경고:

Crypto CFDs are an extremely high-risk, speculative investment and you may lose all your invested capital. Before trading, you need to ensure you fully understand the risks involved taking into consideration your level of experience and investment objectives. Seek independent advice, if necessary.