US PMI data due out this week

The US S&P preliminary PMI data for October is set to be released this week. The PMI data may provide insight into the state of the US economy, in terms of manufacturing, service and the composite for an overall image. Therefore, should the readings showcase a resilient US economy, it may provide support for the greenback whilst weighing on the precious metal’s price considering the inverse relationship of the two assets. Moreover, with the US mid-terms approaching, financial releases stemming from the US may garner even greater interest as they could be used from a political level, which could translate into a greater impact on the related assets, i.e gold and the dollar.

FOMC meeting next week

The FOMC’s next meeting is set to take place next week. The majority of market participants are currently anticipating the bank to remain on hold at 3.75-4% with FFF currently implying an 85.1% probability for such a scenario. Considering the importance of the FOMC’s decision on the markets, we may see the implications of the Fed’s next decision dominating the airwaves this week, as market participants prepare for the decision. Moreover, considering the market’s expectations at this point, we could see attention shifting to the Fed’s narrative post-decision and how the Fed may proceed going forward. In turn any hawkish commentary could provide support for the dollar whilst weighing on the precious metal’s price and vice versa.

Bonds on the menu – WGC

According to a report released by the WGC, “The 10-year Treasury rally (yield drop) during the current Nasdaq sell-off stands out, particularly as inflation has recently surprised to the upside. Reminiscent of February 2025, when inflation was also picking up, but unlike July 2024 when it was softening, it suggests investors may be looking to bonds for safety again as equity risks intensify (C.O.T.W). For gold it sends a mixed message: renewed bond demand might compete for safe-haven flows, but falling yields reduce gold’s opportunity cost and could provide support if the equity rout worsens”. Essentially, implying that should the equity route continues to worsen, we may see a safe haven outflows from gold and into bonds considering their interest-bearing nature. Moreover, with Anthropic’s IPO in sight the AI spending concerns that have emerged could be amplified which could weigh on gold’s price.

기술적 분석

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Gold’s price appears to be moving in a sideways fashion despite currently testing our 4180 (R1) resistance level. We opt for a sideways bias for gold’s price and supporting our case is gold’s failure to clear our aforementioned R1 level. For our sideways bias to be maintained, we would require the precious metal’s price to remain between our 4020 (S1) support level and our 4180 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook we would require a break below our 4020 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being our 3815 (S2) support level. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above our 4180 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4335 (R2) resistance level.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

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Many traders use Smart Money Technique Divergence as a confirmation tool instead of a standalone trading strategy. When combined with market structure, liquidity, and disciplined risk management, it provides valuable context for analysing potential shifts in market direction.

What is Smart Money Technique Divergence?

SMT divergence stands for Smart Money Technique. It focuses on the relationship between two correlated assets rather than comparing price with technical indicators such as RSI or MACD.

When one market creates a new high or low while the second market fails to confirm that move, traders identify the divergence. This difference may indicate relative strength or weakness between the two markets, but it does not guarantee that a reversal will occur.

What Does SMT Mean in ICT Trading?

Within the ICT methodology, Smart Money Technique Divergence is one layer of a broader analytical process. It is commonly used alongside liquidity sweeps, order blocks, fair value gaps, and changes in market structure.

The objective is to build confluence before considering a trade. Rather than entering a position solely because divergence appears, traders look for several technical factors supporting the same directional idea.

Why Correlated Markets Matter

SMT divergence only works when the instruments being compared have a meaningful historical correlation. These relationships exist because certain markets respond to similar economic conditions, investor sentiment, or movements in the US dollar.

When correlated markets temporarily stop moving together, traders analyse which instrument is showing relative strength or weakness. This comparison often reveals information that is not obvious when analysing only one chart.

Markets Commonly Used With it

Forex traders frequently compare EUR/USD and GBP/USD because both currency pairs are heavily influenced by the US dollar. They have historically shown a strong positive correlation, although that relationship can weaken during periods of elevated volatility.

Index traders often compare the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, while commodity traders may analyse gold and silver. Choosing markets with established correlations makes its analysis significantly more meaningful.

How Does it Work

SMT Divergence works by comparing the price structure of two related markets on the same timeframe. The focus is on whether both instruments create matching swing highs or swing lows during the same market move.

If one market reaches a new higher high while the other forms a lower high, traders identify a bearish divergence. If one creates a lower low while the other refuses to break its previous low, the result is a bullish divergence.

How to Identify Smart Money Technique Divergence

Follow a structured process to keep your analysis consistent:

• Open two correlated markets on the same timeframe
• Mark the latest swing highs and swing lows
• Compare whether both markets confirmed the move
• Look for divergence near liquidity or structural levels
• Wait for additional confirmation before planning an entry

Using identical timeframes is essential because it ensures both markets are being compared under the same market conditions.

Bullish ICT SMT Divergence Explained

Bullish Smart Money Technique Divergence occurs when one correlated market creates a lower low while the second market holds above its previous low. The stronger market may indicate that bearish pressure is beginning to weaken even though price initially appears to be falling.

Within ICT trading, this pattern is often monitored after a sell side liquidity sweep. Traders usually wait for confirmation through market structure before considering a potential long setup.

Bearish ICT SMT Divergence Explained

Bearish divergence happens when one market creates a higher high while the correlated instrument fails to reach an equivalent high. The lack of confirmation may suggest that bullish pressure is becoming less convincing as the move extends.

Many traders pay closer attention when bearish divergence develops near previous highs or major resistance levels. Even then, the divergence is treated as supporting evidence rather than a direct sell signal.

How to Trade Smart Money Technique Divergence in Forex

In trading, it is most commonly applied to correlated forex pairs because they often respond similarly to changes in the US dollar. EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain popular choices due to their historically strong relationship during normal market conditions.

A common workflow begins with identifying the higher timeframe trend before comparing both pairs for divergence. If the SMT divergence appears near a significant liquidity level, traders may then wait for lower timeframe confirmation before planning an entry.

Best Timeframes to Use it

It can appear virtually on any timeframe, but higher timeframes generally produce clearer and more meaningful signals. Four hour and daily charts tend to highlight stronger structural swings while filtering out much of the short-term market noise.

Lower timeframes such as the five minute or fifteen-minute charts are often used for execution rather than establishing directional bias. Combining higher timeframe analysis with lower timeframe confirmation helps improve timing.

ICT SMT Divergence vs Regular Divergence

Although they share the same name, Smart Money Technique Divergence is fundamentally different from traditional divergence. Instead of comparing price with an indicator, it compares the price action of two correlated markets.

The Role of Liquidity

Liquidity is one of the core concepts within the ICT SMT divergence methodology, making it closely connected to Smart Money Technique Divergence Previous highs and lows often contain clusters of stop orders, making them important liquidity areas that many price action traders monitor.

When one market sweeps liquidity while the correlated market fails to confirm the move, traders gain an additional layer of confluence. The divergence becomes more valuable because it appears within a meaningful technical context.

Why Market Structure Matters

Market structure provides the framework that helps traders interpret this divergence correctly. A divergence appearing after a clear trend and liquidity sweep often carries more analytical value than one forming during a sideways range.

For example, a bullish SMT becomes more compelling if price also begins creating higher lows and breaks a recent lower high. The combination of structural change and divergence creates stronger confirmation than either concept alone.

When Does it Not Work

One of the biggest misconceptions is that SMT predicts every reversal. Strong trends can continue despite multiple divergence signals, particularly during periods of sustained directional momentum.

Correlations can also weaken during high impact news events such as central bank decisions, inflation releases, or employment reports. For this reason, Smart Money Technique Divergence should always be interpreted alongside broader market conditions.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

A common mistake is comparing assets with weak or inconsistent correlations. Divergences between unrelated markets often produce misleading conclusions and reduce the quality of the analysis.

Another mistake is entering trades immediately after spotting divergence. Waiting for confirmation through market structure, liquidity, and proper risk management creates a more disciplined trading process.

Risk Management When Trading the Divergence

No setup in trading offers certainty, which makes risk management essential. Position sizing, predefined stop losses, and realistic profit targets remain more important than the SMT divergence itself.

Many experienced traders risk only a small percentage of their capital on a single idea and avoid increasing exposure simply because multiple divergences appear. Long term consistency comes from protecting capital as much as identifying quality opportunities.

Why is it Popular Among ICT Traders

One reason ICT SMT divergence has become so popular is its focus on pure price action. Instead of relying on lagging indicators, traders compare the behaviour of two correlated markets to identify whether price movements are genuinely being confirmed.

This approach encourages analysis of liquidity, market structure, and relative strength at the same time. Within the ICT framework, SMT is most valuable when it supports a broader technical narrative rather than acting as a standalone trigger.

Final Thoughts

SMT Divergence is a powerful price action concept that helps traders analyse the relationship between correlated markets. Whether applied to forex, stock indices, or commodities, it offers valuable insight into relative strength and potential shifts in momentum.

The strongest SMT setups typically occur when liquidity, market structure, and confirmation align within a disciplined trading plan. By treating it as one component of a broader analytical framework, traders can make more informed and structured market decisions.

Disclaimer: This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication.

The post SMT Divergence Explained: An ICT Trading Guide appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

The US dollar remained at low levels for the month. Across the Atlantic, violent protests in France weighed on EUR as the political uncertainty intensifies given the elections in April 2027. The GBP gained in the past week as UK GDP rates showed a faster growth for UK economy. The coming week may be more easy-going given the low number of US high-impact financial releases, and the greenback may ease its grip on the FX market. Also, we expect the market’s focus is expected to shift towards fundamentals and a possible enhancement of the market’s expectations for the Fed to hike rates could provide some support for the USD. 

Nasdaq recovers some of last week’s losses

US stock market indexes regained some of last week’s losses, with key earnings reports scheduled to be released during the week, amid mounting pressure on the AI trades. Earnings from US mega cap companies including SpaceX, Tesla, Meta Platforms and IBM this week are expected to test investor confidence. A possible recovery in the market sentiment could lift US equities and vice versa. 

Oil edges lower after last week’s rally

Oil retreated from a five-month high as traders weighed an intensification of tensions in the Gulf region against signs that supply from the area was holding near pre-war levels. Also, oil prices slipped in today’s Asian session, as investors also took into account that US President Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia oil that could allow for increase of supplies in the internation oil market.

금일 주요 경제 뉴스

In today’s American session, the calendar seems to be empty. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get from China PBoC’s interest rate decision, and later in the European session we get Germany’s September PPI rates, UK’s August employment data and Germany’s October ZEW indicators. 

금주 주요 경제뉴스

On Wednesday we get Japan’s trade data, UK’s and Canada’s CPI rates all for September. On Thursday we get New Zealand’s Q3 CPI rates, from Turkey CBTs’ interest rate decision and Canada’s September PPI rates. On Friday we note the release of October’s preliminary PMI figures for Japan, Australia, Germany, France, the Euro Zone, the UK and the US, while we also note the release of Japan’s September CPI rates, UK’s September retail sales, Canada’s August retail sales, and the US UoM October Sentiment.  

Charts to keep an eye out

XAU/USD Cash Daily Chart

XAU/USD maintained a tight rangebound motion remaining in the midst of the R1 and the S1. We maintain our sideways bias for the precious metal’s price as long as it respects the prementioned levels. The RSI indicator remains just below the reading of 50, implying a slight bearish predisposition of the market for gold’s price, yet, nothing convincing yet. Should the bears take over, we may see gold’s price breaking below the  below our 3960 (S1) support level, and start aiming for the 3600 (S2) support line. Should the bulls be in charge, we may see gold’s price breaking above the 4275 (R1) resistance line, aiming for the 4550 (R2) level.

WTI Cash Daily Chart

WTI edged lower in today’s Asian session, yet remained well between the 94.30 (S1) support line and the 101.00 (R1)  resistance line. Given that the upward trendline guiding the commodity’s price remains intact we maintain our bullish outlook. Should the bulls maintain control, we may see WTI’s price action breaking the 101.00 (R1) resistance line, opening the gates for the 108.85 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a break below the prementioned upward trendline signalling an interruption of the upward movement and WTI’s price to continue its journey southwards by breaking the 94.30 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being our 87.55 (S2) support level.

DISCLAIMER: This content is for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or investment recommendation.

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What Is VSTOXX?

VSTOXX, also known as the Euro STOXX 50 Volatility Index, measures how much volatility traders expect in the market. It is calculated using option prices on the Euro STOXX 50.

When traders expect more turbulence, VSTOXX tends to rise. When markets are calmer, it tends to fall. Think of it as a pulse check for European equity markets. It looks ahead over the next 30 days, so it reflects what traders expect, not what has already happened.

A low VSTOXX usually points to calmer market expectations, while a high reading can signal that traders are pricing in more uncertainty and risk.

How VSTOXX Is Calculated

VSTOXX is based on real options prices. It uses out-of-the-money puts and calls on the Euro STOXX 50, covering a broad range of strike prices to capture more information about expected market volatility.

Instead of looking only at options close to the current market price, the methodology uses a wider range of options to estimate implied variance. This provides a broader view of the volatility traders are pricing into the market and is one reason it is widely used as a benchmark.

What the Numbers Actually Mean

VSTOXX is expressed as an annualised percentage, and different readings can give you a sense of how much volatility traders expect.

• Below 15: Markets are generally calm, with relatively low expected volatility.
• 15 to 25: Moderate uncertainty, often seen during normal market conditions.
• Above 30: Higher levels of uncertainty and risk aversion.
• Above 40: Very high market stress, often associated with major market events.

These levels are not fixed rules. They are simply reference points that can help put the current market environment into context alongside other indicators.

VSTOXX vs VIX: What’s the Difference?

The VSTOXX vs. VIX comparison comes up often, and it makes sense. Both indices measure expected market volatility, but they focus on different markets.

The VIX tracks expected volatility for the S&P 500, making it a key measure of volatility in US equity markets.

VSTOXX focuses on the Euro STOXX 50, which represents large-cap companies across the eurozone.

So, the main difference is simple: VIX gives you a view of expected volatility in the US market, while VSTOXX gives you the equivalent view for European equities.

Key Differences Between VSTOXX and VIX

Both use broadly similar options-based approaches, but they do not always move in sync. European and US markets can react differently to regional events, such as eurozone debt concerns or ECB policy announcements.

During periods of stress that affect one region more than the other, the gap between VSTOXX and VIX can widen. For example, in August 2012, Reuters reported that the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index had reached a three-week low as European markets stabilised.

When comparing the two, keep a few things in mind:

• VSTOXX reflects expected volatility in eurozone equities.
• VIX reflects expected volatility in US equities.
• The two can move in different directions when regional events affect one market more than the other.
• Looking at both can provide a broader view of volatility across European and US markets.

When the Two Converge

VSTOXX and VIX can move together during major global shocks. When both rise sharply at the same time, it can suggest that the increase in volatility is broad-based rather than limited to one region.

For traders watching both European and US markets, this kind of convergence can be a useful signal to keep an eye on when assessing cross-market volatility.

How Traders Use VSTOXX

VSTOXX is more than just a number to watch. Traders use it in a few different ways.

Some use it as a sentiment gauge when considering positions in European equities or indices. A sharp rise in VSTOXX can signal that traders are pricing in more uncertainty around an upcoming event, such as an election, central bank decision, or major economic release.

VSTOXX can also be traded directly through futures and options listed on Eurex. There are also exchange-traded products linked to VSTOXX futures, giving investors another way to gain exposure to volatility as an asset class.

VSTOXX as a Hedging Tool

Volatility indices can also play a role in hedging. Since VSTOXX often rises when equity markets fall, some portfolio managers use VSTOXX-linked instruments to help offset potential losses in European equity positions.

It is not a perfect hedge, though. Futures-based products come with their own risks and complexities, and the relationship between VSTOXX and the Euro STOXX 50 can change depending on market conditions.

That makes VSTOXX useful to understand as part of a broader risk management approach, rather than as a standalone protection against market declines.

Limitations to Keep in Mind

VSTOXX can be a useful tool, but it has its limitations.

It measures expected volatility, not actual volatility. In other words, it reflects what options traders are pricing in, not necessarily what will happen in the market.

VSTOXX can remain elevated for a while even when the underlying market does not experience a major move. It can also react quickly to sudden changes in options pricing. Most importantly, VSTOXX does not tell you which direction the market will move. It only shows that expectations for volatility have changed.

That is why VSTOXX is best used alongside other information. Looking at price action, macroeconomic data, and broader sentiment indicators can give you a more complete picture of what is happening in the market.

Tracking and Trading VSTOXX: What to Know

If you want to track or trade VSTOXX, having the right tools can make a difference. Access to European index instruments and real-time market data can help you keep an eye on changing volatility conditions.

Whether you use VSTOXX as a market signal, a hedging input, or simply as part of your European equity analysis, reliable data and execution can help you make more informed trading decisions.

What VSTOXX Tells You About European Markets

VSTOXX cannot predict the future, and no index can. What it can do is give you a real-time view of how the options market is pricing uncertainty across eurozone equities. That can be useful context when assessing market conditions.

The VSTOXX vs. VIX comparison also highlights how volatility can differ between regions. Watching both can give you a broader view of global risk sentiment, while VSTOXX on its own provides a more focused look at European markets.

If European equities are part of your trading focus, understanding VSTOXX can give you another useful perspective on market volatility.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

The post VSTOXX: Europe’s Volatility Index Explained appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

The USD prepares to the week in the reds, after four consecutive weeks of gains. The easing of market expectations for the Fed to hike rates, weighed on the greenback, despite inflationary pressures getting a boost beyond market expectations, both on a consumer as well as on a producers’ level for the past month. Fed policymakers seem to lack the necessary hawkishness and it’s characteristic that Fed Chair Warsh avoided to mention anything about the path of interest rates in today’s Asian session. Given also the low number of high impact financial releases from the US in next week’s calendar, we expect fundamentals to lead the USD in the FX market. Should market expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy be enhanced, we may see the USD getting some support and vice versa a continuing of the easing of the market’s expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy could weigh on the USD.

GBP – Employment and CPI rates to be watched

AUD may have been the winner of the week in the FX market, being in the greens against the USD, the EUR and JPY. UK’s GDP rates for August on a 3M/3M and y/y basis accelerated beyond market expectations brightening the macroeconomic outlook of the UK somewhat. In the coming week we are to focus on inflation and employment given the release of UK’s CPI rates for September and August’s employment data. Should we see the UK employment market tightening in August, we may see the pound getting some support.

Yet the main issue may be the release of the UK CPI rates for September as an acceleration of the rates could add more pressure on BoE to tighten its monetary policy, thus providing support for the GBP. However we note that BoE Govenror Bailey does not seem to be conviced for the width of inflationary pressures in the UK economy, at least as stated yesterday. We note that the market currently prices in two rate hikes to come by BoE until the end of the year.

JPY – Japan’s September CPI rates could move the Yen

JPY seems to remain relatively stable against the USD for the week, despite the weakening of the latter. In the coming week, on a macroeconomic level, we highlight the release of Japan’s CPI rates for September, next Friday. A possible acceleration of the rates could provide some support for the JPY, as it could enhance the hawkishness of BoJ and thus provide some support for JPY. It’s characteristic how BoJ Governor Ueda on Friday reiterated the risks of underlying inflation overshooting the central bank’s 2% target, as reported by Reuters. For the time the bank is expected to remain on hold in October and proceed with a rate hike in December, which tends to be supportive for the JPY. On a deeper fundamental level, we note that the carry trade effect seems to have been paused which also may be supportive for JPY.

EUR – Preliminary October PMI figures eyed

The common currency seems to be in the greens for the week against the USD and JPY, yet loses ground against the GBP, sending some mixed signals. In the coming week, we highlight the release of October’s preliminary PMI figures of Germany, France and the Euro Zone as a whole. A possible rise of the figures could signal a faster expansion of economic activity across sectors, a major issue for the Euro Zone on a macroeconomic level.

On a monetary level the acceleration of the HICP rates maintains hawkish expectations of the market for ECB’s intentions. We should note that the market currently expects the bank to remain on hold in the coming meeting, end of October and proceed towards a rate hike in December. The Euro Zone seems to be particularly sensitive to the level of energy costs, hence should oil prices remain high or even rise further, we may see inflationary pressures getting a boost, adding more pressure on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy earlier. Also we maintain, on a deeper fundamental level, our worries for the political outlook in the Euro Zone, given the political uncertainty in France, Germany and Spain, which could weigh on EUR.

AUD – Fundamentals to lead the Aussie

Surprisingly the Aussie was unable to benefit from the weakening of the USD during the week. The release of Australia’s employment data for took AUD traders by surprise as the employment figure dropped deep into the negatives reaching -39.3k and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%. The data weighed on the Aussie as the advised caution to the RBA in tightening its monetary policy. For the time being the bank is expected to remain on hold until the end of the year, which may be somewhat bearish for the Aussie. On a deeper fundamental level, we note that the Aussie as a commodity currency, tends to be sensitive to the market’s risk on/off tendencies. Should the market’s sentiment improve, we may see AUD getting some support and vice versa should the market sentiment turn more cautious, AUD may lose ground.

CAD – September’s CPI rates to shake the Loonie

The Loonie was able to reverse a five week losing streak against the USD. In the coming week we expect Loonie traders to focus on the release of Canada’s CPI rates for September.

A possible acceleration of the rates could provide some support for the CAD as it could enhance the pressure on BoC to tighten its monetary policy. For the time being the bank is expected to remain on hold and CAD OIS imply a probability of 69.7% for such a scenario to materialise, with the rest implying that a rate hike is also possible. It should be noted that BoC Governor Macklem noted that BoC has not yet hiked rates, yet prolonged high energy prices make such a stance harder to keep.

On a fundamental level, we note that the US-Canadian trade war is ongoing, with tariffs in place and without any easing on the horizon. The US-Canadian trade war, tends to provide bearish tendencies for the Loonie, albeit we have to note the efforts of the Canadian government to transform the country.

DISCLAIMER: This content is for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or investment recommendation.

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Fed Chair Warsh spoke before an IMF summit, in which he stated that he would not “prejudge” plans for the next monetary policy decision, but that the economic conditions were “broadly” in line with the bank’s expectations. In turn this could imply that despite the recent economic readings which could have increased expectations of a Fed rate hike, the Fed Chair seemingly assured markets that this may not be something the bank has not planned for. In turn, the comments made by the Fed Chair could weigh on the greenback.

US Equites claw back some losses on a weaker dollar

As the dollar weakens following the Fed Chair’s comments which we mentioned previously, the US Equities may have clawed back some of their losses this week on the back on a weaker dollar. The US Equities markets continue to be plagued by the AI infrastructure debt concerns that surfaced in the market this week. Despite the gains being made today, the structural issue remains with the debt incurred from AI infrastructure just taking the second place on the news calendar for the day. Yet, the issue stemmed from concern as to how payments and companies would fair during a high interest rate environment; therefore, as market expectations of a restrictive Fed ease, we may see those worries subsiding which could aid equities markets.

Oil prices in focus as CNN reports that the US is considering the use of “MOAB” against Iran

Oil - (석유) prices edged lower in today’s Asian session following a weakening of the dollar during Fed Chair Warsh’s comments at the IMF summit in Bangkok. However, our focus is the recent report by CNN which states that according to their sources, the US Military has drawn up  new strike plans for the use of the “Mother of All Bombs” which is the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal. In turn, the use of such an explosive ordnance could severely escalate the situation in the region, which could be followed by a significant military escalation. In turn, in the event that it appears that the US may use such a bomb could provide support for oil prices as the oil supply chain in the region may be heavily disrupted.

금일 주요 경제 뉴스

Today we get EU’s final HICP rate for September and the US industrial production rate on a month on month basis for  September. Another highlight is Tesla’s new car which was unveiled today.

Charts to keep an eye out

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD appears to be  moving higher following the weakening of the dollar during today’s Asian session. We opt for a sideways bias for the pair and supporting our case is the break above our 1.1195 (S1) support level. For our sideways bias to be maintained, we would require the pair to remain confined between our 1.1195 (S1) support level and our 1.1470 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below our 1.1195 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being our 1.0960 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above 1.1470 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 1.1680 (R2) resistance line.

WTI Cash Daily Chart

WTI appears to be in the red today, yet overall we would still maintain a predominantly bullish outlook for the commodity. Our bullish outlook is supported by the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure close to 60 implying a bullish market sentiment, in addition to the upwards moving trendline. For our bullish outlook to be maintained we would require a break above our 97.95 (R1) resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being our 102.05 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require the commodity’s price to remain confined between 92.35 (S1) level and our 97.95 (R1) line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a break below our 93.25 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being our 86.45 (S2) support level.

DISCLAIMER: This content is for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or investment recommendation.

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Market focus today is expected to be on the release of the US CPI rates for September. The rates are expected to accelerate both at a headline and a core level for the past month in an indication of a boost in inflationary pressures in the US economy. Should the actual rates show an even faster-than-expected acceleration, we may see the USD being supported, as the market’s already hawkish expectations for the Fed could be further enhanced. Conversely, possibly slower-than-expected CPI rates, could weigh on the USD as market worries for the Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans may ease. The release could have ripple effects beyond the FX market, and higher than expected CPI rates could weigh on gold’s price and US equities, while slower than expected rates could lift US equities and gold.

Australia’s September Employment data

In the FX market, we continue to keep a close eye on the Aussie. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Australia’s employment data for September and the prognosis is for the employment change figure to drop and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. Should the actual rates and figures show an even looser Australian market than expected, we may see the Aussie being on the retreat, while the picture of a tighter-than-expected Australian employment market could lift AUD.

Big banks earnings reports to be continued

The release of earnings reports by large US banks continues today with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock, all set to release their reports before the opening of the market. Possibly better-than-expected EPS and revenue figures accompanied by a robust forward guidance could support their share prices, but also lift the market sentiment somewhat.

금일 주요 경제 뉴스

Today we get Sweden’s CPI rates for September, and late in the American session the US weekly crude oil inventories figure. On a monetary level we note that a high number of policymakers from various central banks are scheduled to speak yet we note BoC Governor Macklem. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we highlight the release of Australia’s September employment data, while on a monetary level we note that BoJ Board member Koeda are scheduled to speak.

Charts to keep an eye out

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD edged higher after bouncing on the 0.6960 (S1) support line. We note that the downward trendline had been allready been broken signalling an interruption of the pair’s downward motion, yet upward motion remains to soft for a bullish outlook given also that the RSI indicator, despite rising is still below the reading of 50. Hence for the time being we maintain a bias for a sideways motion of the pair. For a bullish outlook to materialise, we would require AUD/USD to rise aiming for the 0.7085 (R1) resistance line. Should the bears regain the initiative over the pair’s direction, we may see AUD/USD breaking the 0.6960 (S1) support line clearly and start aiming for the 0.6830 (S2) support level.

US 500 Cash Daily Chart

S&P 500 remained stable near record high levels, well between the 7875 (R1) resistance line and the 7750 (S1) support level. We maintain a bias for the index’s sideways motion to continue between the prementioned levels for the time being. Yet we note that the RSI indicator remains above 50, implying possibly a bullish predisposition. Hence we issue a warning for any bullish tendencies. Should the bulls take control over the index’s direction, S&P 500’s price action could break the 7875 (R1) resistance line and start actively aiming for the 8000 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take charge over S&P 500’s price action we may see it breaking the 7750 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 7620 (S2) level.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

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The USD slipped in the FX market in today’s Asian session, relinquishing some of Monday’s gains. It should be noted that today is the first day after the prolonged weekend, given the US public holiday yesterday, and the slipping of oil prices may have weighed on the greenback. In Australia, RBA’s September meeting minutes were hawkish as the document kept the door open for more monetary policy tightening and in tomorrow’s Asian session, Aussie traders may keep a close eye on China’s trade data for September. 

US stock markets await earnings reports

US stock markets seem to be sending out mixed signals and the market is focusing on the earnings reports of major US banks in today’s trading hours. The releases of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are to closely watched and possibly better-than-expected revenue and EPS figures, accompanied by a robust forward guidance could lift the market sentiment, supporting US equities. 

Oil prices slip

Oil prices tended to slip as on a fundamental level, market worries for the Houthi hits on Saudi Arabia seem to ease, while the US-Russian deal is expected to boost supply of diesel in the markets easing the market’s tightness somewhat. Nevertheless, we still consider the situation in the Gulf region as fragile and a possible escalation of tensions could drive oil prices higher again.

Gold’s price remains steady

Gold’s price remained relatively steady yesterday. The negative correlation between the precious metal and the USD seems to have been interrupted, given the strengthening of the USD over the past week. Yet we highlight central bank gold purchases and especially the buying spree of China’s PBoC as possible reason behind the resilience of precious metal’s price.  99474216

금일 주요 경제 뉴스

Today we get Germany’s and the Czech Republic’s final HICP rates for September in the European session and later on we get the US existing home sales for the same month. On a monetary level, please note that Fed Board Governor Waller, ECB Board Member Lane and Boston Fed President Collins speak. In tomorrow’s Asian session, things start to heat up as we get from China the trade data and inflation metrics for September.

Charts to keep an eye out

XAU/USD Daily Chart

XAU/USD remained relatively stable yesterday and during today’s Asian session. We maintain our bias for a sideways motion of the precious metal’s price to continue. Also the RSI indicator remains near the reading of 50, implying that the bearish market sentiment for gold’s price tends to remain weak, which may allow the sideways motion to continue. Should the bears regain control over the direction of gold’s price we may see it breaking 3960 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 3600 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, gold’s price may break the 4275 (R1) resistance line and start actively aiming for the 4550 (R2) resistance base.

US 100 Cash Daily Chart

Nasdaq (US 100 Cash) edged lower yesterday breaking the 30770 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We recognise the bearish tendencies of the index’s price action, yet also note that the RSI indicator has dropped signalling an easing of the bullish market sentiment, yet has not signalled any bearish predisposition of the market for the index. Should the bears take full control over Nasdaq’s price action we may see it aiming if not breaking the 29675 (S1) support line. Should the bulls take over, Nasdaq’s price action could break the 30770 (R1) resistance line and opening the way for the 32500 (R2) resistance level.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

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US inflation metrics due out this week

The US inflation data is due to be released this Wednesday. The headline and Core CPI rates for the month of September on a year-on-year basis are both expected to accelerate respectively. In particular, economists are currently anticipating the headline rate to come in at 3.6% and the Core rate at 2.5%. Thus, should the rates come in as expected or higher, which would imply an acceleration of inflationary pressures on the US economy, the pressure on the Fed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance could increase, which may aid the greenback whilst weighing on the precious metal’s price given the two instruments’ inverse relationship with one another.

Houthi Rebel’s strike Saudi Arabian airports over the weekend

Houthi Rebel’s have struck airports located in Saudi Arabia over this past weekend. In particular, the strike on Saturday resulted in 12 casualties and Saudi Arabia reported earlier on today that they intercepted a ballistic missile from the Houthi Rebels. The strikes by the Houthi Rebels have disrupted Saudi Arabia’s airports with numerous cancellations occurring, in turn tensions in the region could escalate. Moreover, the continued strikes on the Kingdom could raise the possibility of retaliatory strikes which may further lead to elevated tensions in the region, which could provide some support for gold’s price given its safe haven asset status.+

Gold demand for Q3 remains elevated – WGC

According to a report released by the WGC, Global gold ETFs attracted US$10bn in September, lifting Q3 inflows to a record US$31bn, led by European- and North American-listed funds. Moreover, the UK recorded its strongest quarter on record, helping Europe achieve the same milestone on a regional level. Overall, the report by the WGC tends to showcase that gold demand has remained strong, to the extent that, per their data Q3 of 2026 was the largest quarterly inflow on record. In turn, the data supporting strong gold demand could have provided some support for the precious metal’s price should such trends continue.

기술적 분석

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Gold’s price appears to be moving in a downwards fashion despite currently testing our 4180 (R1) resistance level. We opt for a bearish outlook for the precious metal’s price and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart, which currently registers a figure close to 40, implying a bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would require a break below our 4020 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being our 3815 (S2) support base. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require gold’s price to remain confined between our 4020 (S1) support level and our 4180 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above our 4180 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4335 (R2) resistance line.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

The post Gold Outlook: US inflation metrics due out this week appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

The USD remained relatively steady in today’s Asian session, yet the upward motion of the past four weeks, despite easing, seems to be still present. Today is to be an easy-going Monday with no major financial releases on the calendar; hence, we expect fundamentals to lead the markets. Also, we highlight the release of the US CPI rates for September on Wednesday as the next big test for the USD in the FX market, with a possibly beyond-expectations acceleration supporting the USD.

Earnings reports coming up

US equity indexes seem to get support on Friday, yet nothing as convincing for the bullish tendencies in US stock markets yet. In the coming days, we highlight the release of the earnings reports by major US banks, and possibly better-than-expected figures could improve the market sentiment and provide some support for US equities, given also the market perception of equities having a riskier nature as an asset.   

Oil prices remain stable as the week begins

Oil prices remained relatively stable in today’s Asian session. The news of US President Trump reaching a deal with Russian President Putin, about Russia releasing millions of barrels of oil through an energy sanctions ceasefire does not seem to have instigated a bearish effect on oil prices as could have been expected, at least not yet. The situation for the international oil market remains complex given that the Houthi attack, on a Saudi Arabian airport enhances the possibility of an even wider escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

금일 주요 경제 뉴스

In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s corporate goods prices and Australia’s business conditions and business confidence, all for September, while RBA is to release the minutes of the September meeting.  

금주 주요 경제뉴스

On Wednesday, we get China’s trade and inflation data, Sweden’s CPI Rates and the US CPI rates all for September. On Thursday, we get Japan’s machinery orders for August, Australia’s employment data for September, the UK’s GDP rates and manufacturing orders both for September, the Eurozone’s industrial output for August, and from the US we note the release of the weekly initial jobless claims figure, October’s Philly Fed Business index, September’s PPI rates and September’s retail sales. On Friday we get Japan’s Chain store sales, the Eurozone’s final HICP rates, and the US industrial production, all for September.

Charts to keep an eye out

XAU/USD Daily Chart

XAU/USD edged higher on Friday and remained relatively stable in today’s Asian session. Yet the interesting element of gold’s movement tends to rely exactly on its stability as it seems to have broken the downward trendline guiding it, allowing us to switch our bearish outlook in favour of a sideways motion bias for the time being. Also the RSI indicator has risen nearing the reading of 50, implying an easing of the bearish market sentiment. Should the bears regain control over the direction of gold’s price we may see it breaking 3960 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 3600 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, gold’s price may break the 4275 (R1) resistance line and start actively aiming for the 4550 (R2) resistance base.

WTI Daily Chart

WTI remained relatively stable on Friday and during today’s Asian session, well between the 87.55 (S1) support line and the 94.30 (R1) resistance level. The RSI indicator runs along the reading of 50 implying a rather indecisive market which in turn could allow the sideways motion to continue. Should the bears take full control over WTI’s price we may see it breaking the 87.55 (S1) clearly and start aiming for the 82.00 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, WTI’s price could break the 94.30 (R1) resistance line and opening the way for the 101.00 (R2) resistance level.

면책 조항:

This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication.

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