{"id":105830,"date":"2025-03-18T14:45:48","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T12:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=105830"},"modified":"2025-03-18T14:45:49","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T12:45:49","slug":"gold-outlook-golds-price-renews-its-upward-movement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/ms\/gold-outlook-golds-price-renews-its-upward-movement\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Gold\u2019s price renews its upward movement"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a>, Gold bulls renewed their dominance over the precious metal\u2019s price driving it to new record high levels. In today\u2019s report we are to have a look at the market uncertainty underpinning the rise of gold\u2019s price as well as geopolitical uncertainties and the upcoming Fed interest rate decision. For a rounder view we intend to conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market uncertainties underpinning gold\u2019s price<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There is a wide range of market uncertainties stemming mostly from the US that tend to underpin the rise of gold\u2019s price. Firstly we note that the weakening of the USD yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian session which as per some analysts may have sparked the strengthening of gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We do not underestimate the possibility of the negative correlation of the two trading instruments, USD and gold, resurfacing, yet for the time being the overall picture seems to be blurry and we would require clearer diverging movement to adopt it, a scenario that could play out in the coming days. Also the uncertainty for the US economic outlook tends to be a factor increasing demand for the precious metal, thus creating safe haven inflows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s characteristic that the Atlanta Fed GDP rate for Q1 25, seems to improve since hitting a low point at 2.8% at the beginning of the month yet remains in contractionary territory. Should the market worries for the US economic outlook intensify, we may see gold\u2019s price gaining further ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly we would also note, the ever-present trade wars, which tend to shed further uncertainty not only for the US but also for the global economic outlook. It\u2019s characteristic how OECD has slashed its forecasts for growth in the economies of Canada and Mexico, which are primarily being affected by the Trump\u2019s tariffs. We also note the tariffs imposed on European products entering the US and expect the issue to widen and intensify further before cooling off, a scenario that may in turn intensify market worries and also provide safe haven inflows for the shiny metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed expected to remain on hold, but will it remain hawkish?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On a monetary level, we highlight the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision tomorrow as gold\u2019s next big test. Fed Fund Futures (FFF) currently imply that the market expects the bank to remain on hold in tomorrow\u2019s meeting providing a probability of 99% for such a scenario to materialise, thus rendering the interest rate part of the decision as an open and shut case. Yet FFF also imply that the market has a more dovish orientation as it expects\u00a0 the bank to deliver another two rate cuts by the end of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence the next big question for gold traders, is to be the bank\u2019s forward guidance, which is to be split in four elements, the accompanying statement, Fed Chairman Powell\u2019s press conference, the new dot plot and the bank\u2019s projections for the US economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the time being the bank is caught between conflicting fundamentals as on the one hand US inflation and the US employment market are easing implying that further easing of its monetary policy is advisable, yet on the other hand Trump\u2019s tariffs and immigration policies could have an inflationary effect on the US economy before the end of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the bank maintain a hawkish stance taking the markets by surprise, gold\u2019s price could come under pressure, while a more dovish inclination by the bank may allow the market\u2019s expectations for more rate cuts to come to intensify thus supporting gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support gold\u2019s price<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On a geopolitical level, we highlight the restart of military operations and especially \u00a0Israeli airstrikes on Gaza as a possible factor attributing to the rise of golds\u2019 price. Yesterday\u2019s bombings left hundreds of dead and seem to have in effect cancelled the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest bombings could cause Hamas to retaliate. For the time being, we see the case for the conflict to intensify a development that could enhance uncertainty in the area. Similarly the recent Houthi attacks against on a British oil tanker and the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships in the northern Red Sea are to intensify uncertainty in the area. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect the US to intensify its air raids against Houthi positions at the current stage a development that targets primarily the international oil market, causing black gold\u2019s price to rise, yet at the same time may also bring about more safe haven inflows for the precious metal.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"We<\/figure>\n\n\n\n