{"id":115806,"date":"2025-07-03T11:18:48","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T08:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=115806"},"modified":"2025-07-03T11:26:30","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T08:26:30","slug":"junes-us-employment-data-to-shake-the-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/ms\/junes-us-employment-data-to-shake-the-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"June\u2019s US employment data to shake the markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

The USD edged higher against its counterparts, yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian session, with the bullish tendencies for the time being unconvincing. On a fundamental level, the USD is set under pressure from the uncertainty created by US President Trump\u2019s tariff wars, market worries for the level of the US national debt, given that Trump\u2019s bill is before the House and finally the market\u2019s dovish expectations for the Fed to cut rates three more times until the end of the year, starting on the September meeting. Today, we highlight US macroeconomics and specifically the release of the US employment report for June. Forecasts are for the Non-Farm Payrolls figure to drop to 110k if compared to May\u2019s 139k, the unemployment rate to tick up reaching 4.3% and the average earnings growth rate to remain unchanged at 3.9%yy. Hence an easing of the US employment market is expected and three scenarios pop out for traders, as the actual rates and figures seldom actually meet the forecasts. The first is for the data to be close to the forecasts, in which case we may see a slight weakening of the USD while in case the data show less easing of the US employment market, could support the USD slightly. The market could be taken by surprise should the data show a beyond forecasts, easing of the US employment market, in which case we expect a substantial weakening of the USD as the market\u2019s expectations for an easing of the Fed\u2019s monetary policy could be enhanced. On the flip side, should the US employment data show a tightening of the US employment market, with the NFP figure rising and the unemployment rate ticking down could provide asymmetric support for the greenback. Yet the release is expected to have ripple effects beyond the FX market, with US equities, gold and to a lesser extent oil, being possible candidates for market movement. A possibly tighter US employment market could weigh on US equities and gold\u2019s price, while a substantially looser US employment market suggesting an easing of the Fed\u2019s monetary policy could support US stock markets and gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the FX market, USD\/JPY edged higher yesterday remaining well between the 145.50 (R1) resistance line and the 142.20 (S1) support line. Maybe the main characteristic of the pair\u2019s movement yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian session, was the interruption of the downward movement since the 23rd of the month, while the RSI indicator remained below yet close to the reading of 50 implying a relatively weak bearish market sentiment on behalf of the market for the pair. Hence we switch our bearish predisposition in favour of a sideways motion bias. Should the bears regain control over USD\/JPY we may see it breaking the 142.20 (S1) support line, thus opening the gates for the 139.60 (S2) support base. Should the bulls take over we may see the pair breaking the 145.50 (R1) line and continues higher aiming for the 148.20 (R2) resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold\u2019s price continued to edge higher yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian session was testing the 3365 (R1) resistance line. The precious metal\u2019s price in yesterday\u2019s rise broke the downward trendline guiding it, signalling a possible stabilisation of the pair. For a bullish outlook to emerge we would require gold\u2019s price to break the 3365 (R1) resistance line and start aiming if not reaching the All Time High level, marked by the 3500 (R2) resistance level. A bearish outlook remains remote currently and for its adoption we would require gold\u2019s price to drop and break clearly the 3245 (S1) support line which was tested twice in the past two months, thus paving the way for the 3120 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we get Switzerland\u2019s and Turkey\u2019s CPI rates for June, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for June and Canada\u2019s trade balance for May, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks. In Monday\u2019s Asian session, we note the release of Japan\u2019s all household spending for May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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