{"id":121186,"date":"2025-10-08T16:01:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T13:01:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=121186"},"modified":"2026-01-16T14:20:53","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T12:20:53","slug":"equities-report-uncertainty-weighs-on-market-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/ms\/equities-report-uncertainty-weighs-on-market-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Uncertainty weighs on market sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report US equities indexes seem to have edged higher. In today\u2019s report we are to discuss fundamental issues surrounding US equities such as the Fed\u2019s stance, the US Government shutdown and the upcoming earnings reports. We are to conclude the report with a technical analysis of S&P 500\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The release of the Fed\u2019s September meeting minutes<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We note the Fed\u2019s stance as a key factor affecting gold\u2019s direction. A possible extensive further easing of the bank\u2019s monetary policy could ease the financial conditions in the US economy thus leading to more business opportunities and quite possibly increased profitability. The market\u2019s expectations for the time being are clearly on the dovish side as Fed Fund Futures currently imply that the market expect the bank to deliver 25 basis points rate cuts in both the October and December meetings. Also it seems that Fed Policymakers are split in whether and by how much the bank should ease its monetary policy further. On the one hand we have Fed policymakers such as Stephen Miran which are favouring and actively pushing for a faster pace of monetary policy easing while on the flip side other Policymakers such as Kansas Fed President Schmid would prefer the bank to halt its rate cutting path and focus on the danger of too-high inflation despite the obvious employment market weakness. Overall there seems to be a power struggle within the Fed between the doves and hawks. We highlight the release of the Fed\u2019s September meeting minutes today and should the document reaffirm or even enhance the market\u2019s expectations for the bank to ease its monetary policy further we may see US stock markets getting some support. Yet should the document outline increased doubts on behalf of Fed on the flip side should the market be forced to ease its dovish expectations we may see the release weighing on gold\u2019s price. Tomorrow, the bank is to release Fed Chairman Powell\u2019s pre-recorded welcome remarks before the Community Bank Conference. We see the case for the Fed Chairman to maintain doubts in regards to the necessity of extensive easing of the bank\u2019s monetary policy and should such doubts be reflected in his comment we may see US stock market indexes slipping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Government shutdown continues<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another key fundamental issue for US equities is the continuance of the US Government shutdown which is entering its 8th day. Both the US Government and Democrats seem to be digging in and no resolution is on the horizon. The possibility of a prolonged shutdown tends to intensify uncertainty in the markets. It\u2019s characteristic that the release of the US employment report for September was delayed, leaving the markets in the dark for the state of the US employment market for the past month and thus increasing the market\u2019s worries. It\u2019s understandable that the prolonged shutdown is weighing on market sentiment turning the markets more cautious and thus could weigh on US stock markets should it be prolonged further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings report to be released<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The earnings season is slowly restarting and is expected to intensify market interest. The report is for Q3 and is expected to show a clearer picture about the effect that US President Trump\u2019s tariffs may have had on companies. Tomorrow Thursday we note the release of PepsiCo\u2019s earnings report, yet interest may be enhanced on Tuesday as a number of big banks are to release their earnings reports including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo&Co, BlackRock and Citigroup. On Wednesday the banking sector is to deliver the earnings reports of Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. The reports beyond being an indication of financial health for each company on its own, in an aggregated manner are also to show how healthy the banking sector in the US has been and could be pivotal for other equities. Earnings reports which would be better than the market\u2019s expectations could lift the spirits of traders and provide an improvement of market sentiment thus allowing US stock markets to rise further and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analisis Teknikal<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US500 Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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