{"id":122820,"date":"2025-11-12T10:17:53","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T08:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=122820"},"modified":"2026-01-15T16:42:40","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:42:40","slug":"fundamentals-continue-to-lead-the-markets-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/ms\/fundamentals-continue-to-lead-the-markets-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamentals continue to lead the markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

Market worries for the US Macroeconomic outlook seem to persist as the USD tended to edge lower against its counterparts yesterday. The possible lifting of the US Government shutdown is to allow for a slew of US data to be released and market worries tend to revolve around growth and the US employment market. It should be noted that ADP reported an average weekly drop of 11k in the number of private payrolls in the US economy. On the other hand, a number of Fed policymakers do not seem to be convinced about the extent of how soft the US employment market actually is and seem to be reconsidering the case for a rate cut in the December meeting. For the time being Fed Fund Futures imply that the market prices in another rate cut in the December meeting by 64.2% and further easing of the market\u2019s dovish expectations could support the USD, while at the same time could weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a technical level, we note that gold\u2019s price fit a ceiling at the 4155 (R1) resistance line. Given the precious metal\u2019s failure to clearly break the prementioned resistance line, our bias for a sideways motion of the precious metal\u2019s price remains while the rise of the RSI indicator to the reading of 60, implies a bullish predisposition of market participants for gold\u2019s price. For the bullish outlook to be adopted, we would require gold\u2019s price to clearly break the 4155 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 4380 (R2) resistance level, which marks an All Time High for the precious metal\u2019s price. For a bearish outlook to be adopted we would require gold\u2019s price to break the 3885 (S1) support line and thus pave the way for the 3615 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session we note the release of Australia\u2019s employment data for October. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 4.4% and the employment change figure to rise from 14.9k to 20.0k. Should the actual data meet their respective forecasts, implying a tightening of the Australian employment market, or even show an even tighter employment market than expected, we may see the Aussie getting some support as RBA could be encouraged to keep rates unchanged. On the flip side should the data fail to meet the market\u2019s expectations or even show an easing employment market we may see the Aussie being on the retreat. Also, Aussie traders are to keep a close eye on the speech of RBA Assistant Governor Jones and should he allow for a more hawkish tone to prevail we may see the Aussie getting some support while a dovish tone could weigh on AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD remained relatively stable yesterday, well between the 0.6620 (R1) resistance line and the 0.6375 (S1) support level. We maintain a bias for the pair\u2019s sideways motion within the corridor set by the prementioned levels to be continued. Supporting our opinion are the Bollinger bands which are narrow and converging slightly implying lower volatility for the pair and the RSI indicator which runs along the reading of 50 implying a rather indecisive market for the pair\u2019s direction. Should the bulls take over, AUD\/USD may break the 0.6620 (R1) line and start aiming for the 0.6940 (R2) level. Should the bears be in charge, we may see the pair breaking the 0.6375 (S1) line and start aiming for the 0.6130 (S2) base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we Get Germany\u2019s final HICP rate for October, Canada\u2019s building permits for September, from the US the API weekly crude oil inventories figure and from New Zealand the electronic card retail sales for October. On a monetary level we note that ECB Board Member Schnabel, ECB Vice President De Guindos, BoE Chief Economist Pill, NY Fed President Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, Fed Board Governor Waller, Fed Board Governor Miran and Boston Fed President Collins are scheduled to speak while BoC is to release the summary of monetary policy deliberations for the October meeting. In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session. We note the release of Japan\u2019s Corporate Goods Prices for October in tomorrow\u2019s Asian session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"support<\/figure>\n\n\n\n