\u201cWe expect that the USD may be more supported in the next week as we expect the discussions for Trump\u2019s intentions to slam tariffs on US imports to be rejuvenated. On a monetary level, further comments of Fed Policymakers about a possible slower pace of rate cutting may support the USD. Yet the main determinant of USD\u2019s direction may prove to be the release of October\u2019s employment report next Friday.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 GBP is about to end the week stronger against the USD and EUR but not the JPY. On a fundamental level, we note the strain in the US-UK relationships, with latest example being the worries that the US President elect Trump may cancel the deal for the return of the Chagos Archipelagos to Mauritius. Further more we still note substantial discontent among the population for the UK government. Both issues tend to weigh on the pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a monetary level, the market\u2019s expectations for the bank to remain on hold in the December meeting and resume rate cutting in February. It\u2019s characteristic that BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli noted that despite inflation easing significantly over the past two years, wage inflation is cooling at a slower pace suggesting that it may be \u201ctoo early\u201d to expect that inflationary pressures have been set under control. Overall the bank\u2019s unwillingness to cut rates, tends to contradict market expectations for some other central banks\u2019 intentions and thus may be more on the supportive side for the sterling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a macroeconomic level, the more pessimistic outlook of UK\u2019s retailers for November as indicated by the CBI distributive trades indicator and expect in the coming week for interest in financial data to pick a bit up. In the coming week, we note the release of the Nationwide House prices and the Halifax House Prices both for November, while also the final PMI figures for the same month may generate some interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s Opinion (GBP)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOverall we expect fundamentals to lead the pound in the coming week. On monetary level, as mentioned above BoE\u2019s hesitation to cut rates may be supportive for the pound yet it\u2019s pretty much priced in by the market, so should there be not major surprises we do not expect any major market reaction for the pound in regards to the pound\u2019s direction. On a Fundamental level the worries for the UK Government remain and tend to weigh yet we expect the pound to be more of a follower rather than take the initiative in the FX market with possibly interest being subdued in the coming week.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 JPY is about to end the week stronger than the EUR,GBP and USD in a sign of wider strength in the FX market. On a fundamental level, we note the safe haven qualities of the Japanese currency, hence should we see market uncertainty being enhanced we may see the JPY getting some support and vice versa. On a local level, we note that the budget session is beginning in Japan and the current minority Liberal government needs some support from the opposition party for the budget to pass. So there seems to be some uncertainty on a political level that could weigh on JPY. On an even deeper fundamental level, we note that as BoJ intends to continue hiking rates, the borrowing cost of the Japanese Government is about to rise, given also the outsized National Debt of Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a monetary level, BoJ\u2019s intentions in the past few days was maybe the key factor behind the JPY\u2019s direction. We expect this tendency to be continued in the coming week and should we see more signals for more rate cuts to come we may see the JPY getting more support. For the time being interest is focused on BoJ\u2019s next meeting on the 19th of December. For the time being the market seems to be marginally pricing in the bank to proceed with a 25 basis points rate hike. We note that next Thursday BoJ board member Nakamura is scheduled to speak in Hiroshima and may provide more clues regarding the banks\u2019 intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a macroeconomic level, the most interesting release in the past week for Japan, may have been today\u2019s Tokyo CPI rates for November. The rates accelerated highlighting the persistence of inflationary pressures in the Japanese megacity, raising the odds for the same on a nationwide level. Furthermore the preliminary industrial output for October also accelerated implying an improvement of economic activity in the sector while the retail sales growth rate also accelerated, implying an improvement on the demand side of the Japanese economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s Opinion (JPY) <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn general we highlight BoJ\u2019s intentions as the main factor behind JPY\u2019s direction. Any further indications enhancing the market\u2019s expectations for BoJ to hike rates in the December meeting could add more support for the Japanese currency in the coming week.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 The EUR is about to end the week stronger against the USD yet loses ground against the GBP and JPY. Our worries on a fundamental level tend to deepen for the Eurozone as on addition to the political uncertainty in Germany, given the 25th of February elections, also the French Government does not seem to fare off so well. First of all the Barnier Government in France does not seem to enjoy the support of half the French, in a negative sign. Yet it\u2019s also budget season for politicians currently and that also unsurprisingly applies for France as well. It seems that Barnier\u2019s coalition Government may not get the necessary votes to pass the budget. The French Government seems prepared to make concessions to the far right to get the necessary votes, yet political analysts speculate that a no confidence vote is also quite possible, which in turn may lead to new elections. We expect political uncertainty and should it be enhanced in the coming week to weigh on the common currency on a fundamental level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a monetary level, ECB board member Schnabel\u2019s lonely dissenting voice was heard yesterday. She stated that she sees little room for further rate cuts highlighting that monetary policy easing may not be the answer to structural problems, while in a more optimistic note stated that the Euro Zone is not heading towards a recession. Overall, the statements forced the market to readjust its expectations for the rate-cutting intentions of the ECB supporting the common currency. Yet ECB\u2019s policymaker and head of France\u2019s central bank Villeroy de Galhau, stated that the bank may have to move beyond neutral levels, to stimulate Eurozone\u2019s economy. The statement was in stark contrast with ECB Board Member Schnabel\u2019s comments earlier this week, highlighting the dovish side of the bank. Should we see additional dovish comments by ECB policymakers in the coming week, we may see them weighing on the EUR. On an even more dovish tone, the market seems to be pricing in a rate cut in the December meeting and a double rate cut in the January meeting. In the coming week, we ECB President Christine Lagarde\u2019s speech at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a macro level we highlight the release of Eurozones\u2019 preliminary HICP rate for November today, which accelerated as expected both on a headline and core level. The release may contradict the markets\u2019 expectations for extensive rate cuts by the ECB, yet we also note that the ECB was allready expecting this resilience of inflationary pressures in the Eurozone. On the flip side growth seems to remain at relatively low levels and near the end of the coming week, we note the release of Eurozone\u2019s final GDP rate for Q3, while throughout the week we get the final PMI figures for November. We intend to focus on Germany as the economic powerhouse of the region which at the same time seems to face the deepest troubles among member states, and also note the release of October\u2019s industrial output and orders growth rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s Opinion (EUR) <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOverall, it still is a hard case to provide a narrative supporting the EUR bulls right now, despite the rise of EUR\/USD in the past few days. We see the case for the common currency to remain on the weakening side for the time being as on a fundamental, monetary and macroeconomic level, the bears seem to be favoured.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 AUD is about to end the week in the reds against the USD despite the overall weakening of the greenback in the week. We note that on a fundamental level, the Aussie could be influenced by the market\u2019s sentiment given that it is considered as a riskier asset given its commodity nature. On the domestic side the ban of social media accounts for under 16 year olds made a sensation, yet we do not expect it to have an impact on the Aussie in the FX market. Aussie traders may keep an eye out for the US-Sino relationships and any tensions. Given the close economic ties of Australia and China. For example the recent announcement by US President elect Donald Trump that his plans to impose a 10% tariff on imports to the US may have been on the bearish side for the Aussie on a fundamental level. Further more we maintain our worries for the rebound of the chinese economy and highlight the release of China\u2019s NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMI figures tomorrow and on Monday\u2019s Asian session, respectively. Should the indicators show a distinctive increase of economic activity in the sector we may also see the Aussie getting some support as it could enhance hopes for more exports of raw materials from Australia to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a monetary level, the Aussie may remain supported on a monetary level, as RBA is expected to remain on hold in its December meeting. Despite their being a chance for a rate cut in the February meeting market expectations are for the RBA to remain on hold in that meeting as well. Giving the intentions of other central banks for easing their monetary policy it\u2019s understandable that the interest rate differential outlook of RBA to favour the Aussie. We note that in Monday\u2019s Asian session, RBA\u2019s Deputy Governor of Domestic Markets, David Jacobs, is scheduled to speak and may shed more light on RBA\u2019s intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a macroeconomic level, we note for Aussie traders the release of a slew of data on Monday\u2019s Asian session, including the building permits and retail sales growth rates for October, yet the main release is expected to be the GDP rate for Q3 next Wednesday. The rate is expected to accelerate and if actually so, or even accelerate beyond market expectations AUD could get some support as it would imply that the Australian economy expanded at a faster pace than in Q2, rightening the outlook for the Australian economy somewhat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s Opinion (AUD) <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn the coming week Aussie traders are expected to focus on the release of the GDP rate for Q3, yet we tend to maintain also some worries for China\u2019s economic recovery which could sway Aussie trader\u2019s attention. Also a more positive, risk oriented market sentiment could provide some support for AUD.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 CAD is about to end the week stronger than the USD, yet as these lines are written Canada\u2019s GDP rate for Q3 is still to be released and could alter the Loonie\u2019s direction. On a fundamental level we note the risk appetite of the market as a possible factor that could affect the Loonie\u2019s direction. Yet the main issue that may have rocked Loonie traders this week may have been the intentions of US President elect Donald Trump to impose a 25% tariff on US imports from Canada. We expect that should the issue gain further importance it could weigh potentially on the CAD. On a deeper fundamental level, we note that the path of oil prices could also influence the Loonie\u2019s direction, given Canada\u2019s status as a major oil producing economy. For the time being the path of oil prices seems indifferent yet should rumors about OPEC extending its oil production cuts be enhanced, we may see oil prices rising and thus also providing some support for the Loonie. Another issue possibly affecting oil prices would be the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Should the ceasefire be maintained we may see the confidence of oil traders for the supply side of the international oil market being enhanced thus weighing on oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a monetary level we still se the case for BoC to remain substantially dovish and the market currently expects the bank to proceed with a 25 basis points rate cut in the December meeting. It\u2019s characteristic of the market\u2019s dovish expectations that the currently CAD OIS imply a probability of 75% for a 25 basis points rate cut with the rest suggesting that a 50 basis points rate cut is also possible. In any case another three rate cuts seem to have been priced in by the market until the end of spring next year. We view the BoC \u2018s intentions as dovish and expect them to weigh on the CAD in the coming week, especially should there be more signals towards such a direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022 On a macro level, in the coming week, we may see increased interest for the release of Canada\u2019s October trade data on Thursday, yet the main release is expected to be November\u2019s employment data next Friday. Should the data show a tighter Canadian employment market with a rising employment change figure and a dropping unemployment rate, we may see the Loonie getting some support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s Opinion (CAD) <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe see the case for Canada\u2019s November employment data to be monopolising the interest of Loonie traders, yet given that they are due out at the end of the week, we may see CAD traders also having a look at the fundamentals surrounding the Loonie. Hence how risk averse the market sentiment actually is, the path of oil prices and the markets\u2019 dovish expectations for BoC\u2019s intentions could play a role in the Loonie\u2019s direction as well.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n As a closing comment we see the case for the USD to strengthen its grip on the FX Market in the coming week. The Greenback is expected to maintain its leading role yet at some point specific currencies may find a chance to form their own, independent course. As for US stockmarkets we note that the earnings season has practically ended yet interest is still alive given that after the Thanks giving holiday and Black Friday the holiday season is kicking off and could generate substantial increase in revenue especially for retail companies, whether may they be brock-and-mortar or e-based. As for gold, we note that the precious metal\u2019s price seems about to mark the widest monthly drop since September last year. The negative correlation of gold with the USD seems to have been interrupted over the past few days, given that both the USD and gold are about to end the week in the reds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-155.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 Fundamentals to lead pound traders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-156.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 BoJ\u2019s intentions continue to lead the JPY<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-157.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 Political uncertainty deepens for the Eurozone<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-158.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 Australia\u2019s Q3 GDP rate to move the Aussie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-159.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 November\u2019s Employment data to rock the Loonie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-160.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGeneral Comment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n