{"id":122310,"date":"2025-10-30T11:51:45","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T09:51:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=122310"},"modified":"2026-01-16T12:57:39","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T10:57:39","slug":"the-common-currency-comes-under-the-markets-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/nl\/the-common-currency-comes-under-the-markets-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"The common currency comes under the market\u2019s focus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Starting with yesterday\u2019s news, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as was expected, yet Fed Chairman Powell in his press conference cast doubts for the scenario of another rate cut in the December meeting. The market\u2019s expectations for further easing of the bank\u2019s monetary policy have eased, yet the market still prices in another rate cut in the December meeting. The event as a whole, provided support for the USD and should we see more Fed policymakers aligning with Powell\u2019s statement we may see the USD rising further. Also, on a fundamental level, the Trump-Xi meeting seems to have gone well, as US President Trump stated that he had an \u201camazing\u201d meeting with Xi. We are still waiting for the specifics, yet it seems that the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese products, while China is to resume US soybean purchases and allow for the flow of rare earth exports to the US. The deal could thaw the tensions in the US-Sino trade relationships, thus increasing the risk on sentiment of the market, yet the devil may be hiding in the details, hence we stand by for more news regarding the meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a technical level we note that the recent movement of gold\u2019s price forced us to readjust our resistance and support levels. We note that the precious metal\u2019s price yesterday dropped and during today\u2019s Asian session, bounced on the 3880 (S1) support line. In its movement gold\u2019s price broke the downward trendline guiding it lower since the 21st of October, hence we temporarily switch our bearish outlook in favour of a sideways motion bias. We also note that the RSI indicator seems to stabilise somewhat near the reading of 50 for the past two days, implying a relative indecisiveness on behalf of market participants for the direction of the next leg of gold\u2019s price action. For a bearish outlook to re-emerge we would require gold\u2019s price to drop below the 3880 (S1) line and start aiming for the 3710 (S2) support level. For a bullish outlook to be adopted, the bullion\u2019s price has to break the 4025 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 4185 (R2) level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the Atlantic, market focus is on the EUR as the ECB\u2019s interest rate decision is to be released. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold. We expect a very careful forward guidance to be issued in the bank\u2019s accompanying statement and ECB President Lagarde\u2019s press conference, providing little about the bank\u2019s intentions, possibly reiterating that the bank\u2019s monetary policy is in a \u201cgood place\u201d, which could be considered as supportive for the common currency. Should the bank unexpectedly include dovish innuendos in its forward guidance, we may see the single currency losing ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD continued to move in a tight sideways motion just above the 1.1570 support line. We maintain our sideways bias and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50 implying a neutral market sentiment. Also the narrowing Bollinger Bands tend to support our bias for a continuance of the sideways movement. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the 1.1570 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 1.1265 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, we may see EUR\/USD\u2019s price breaking the 1.1825 (R1) resistance line, thus paving the way for the 1.2115 (R2) resistance barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we get France\u2019s preliminary GDP rate for Q3, Switzerland\u2019s KOF indicator figure for October, the Czech Republic\u2019s, Germany\u2019s and the Eurozone\u2019s preliminary GDP rates for Q3, the Eurozone\u2019s final consumer confidence figure, Germany\u2019s preliminary CPI rates both for October, the ECB\u2019s interest rate decision followed by ECB President Lagarde\u2019s press conference, the US GDP advance rate for Q3 and the speech by ECB President Logan. In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session we note Japan\u2019s CPI rates for October, Japan\u2019s unemployment rate and preliminary industrial output rate both for September and lastly, China\u2019s NBS manufacturing PMI figure for October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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