![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-83.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 UK\u2019s October CPI rates eyed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
On a macro level we highlight the easing of the tightness of the UK employment market and the release of UK\u2019s GDP rates for Q3, showing a wider-than expected slowdown in growth for the UK economy over the past quarter. Even worse for the month of September, the UK economy shrunk, while negative signals were sent from the Services, industrial and construction sectors of the economy. We see the case for a darkening of UK\u2019s economic outlook which could weigh on the pound. In the coming week we expect data to be key regarding the pound\u2019s direction and we highlight the release of UK\u2019s October CPI rates for October on Wednesday. Should the rates show further easing of inflationary pressures in the UK economy, we may see the pound slipping as such indications could enhance BoE\u2019s intentions to cut rates at a faster pace. At a macroeconomic level for the pound we would also like to note the release of UK\u2019s retail sales for September and the preliminary PMI figures for November, both due out on Friday and could move the pound. On a monetary level, we note the speech of BoE Governor Bailey on Thursday yet also highlight the market\u2019s expectations for the bank to remain on hold in the December meeting and restart rate cuts in the new year, which in turn may keep the pound supported on a monetary level in the short term. On a political level, we note Chancellor Reeves determination to cut through the red tape in regulation for the UK\u2019s crucial finance industry, which may prove supportive for the pound while intentions to use pensions \u201cmega funds\u201d for investment, \u201creforming the pension markets decades\u201d could also provide some support for the pound, yet at the same time we tend to remain skeptical for the implementation of such intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n JPY\u2019s weakening against the USD was maintained until today, intensifying our worries for a possible Japanese market intervention operation. The headwinds faced by BoJ in its efforts to normalise its monetary policy seem to have renewed market expectations that the possible rate hikes may be delayed. Even in the summary of opinions of the bank\u2019s latest meeting the divide among BoJ policymakers about the timing of the next rate hike was obvious. Overall we see the case for any further indications of a possible delay of the next rate hike to weigh on JPY in the next week. On a macro level we note the acceleration of Japan\u2019s Corporate goods prices growth rate for October, which may be signalling a possible revival of inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy at a later stage, as producers may have to roll over the increase of prices of raw materials to the consumers. The weakening of the JPY may have played a part in this as it may have made imports more expensive for Japanese businesses. Hence we highlight the release of Japan\u2019s trade data for October with special focus being on the imports figure. Yet on a macroeconomic level the highlight is expected to be the release of Japan\u2019s CPI rates for October on Friday. Should rates show further easing of inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy, we may see the JPY weakening as BoJ\u2019s narrative justifying its intentions for further rate hikes could weaken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USD is passing over the EUR like a juggernaut and some analysts are highlighting the possibility of the pair reaching parity levels. It\u2019s really hard to make the case for EUR bulls practically on all levels of fundamental analysis. On a political level, Eurozone products are a prime target for US President elect imposing tariffs on, Trump is expected to ask for European countries to increase their contribution to NATO and a possible win of Russia in the war in Ukraine tends to worry EU politicians substantially all weighing on the common currency. Furthermore the recent instability of Governance in Germany with the elections being prematurely set for February next year tend to add even more uncertainty for the political outlook of the Eurozone. On a monetary level, the ECB is expected to keep on cutting rates at each meeting and at some point a double rate cut also being possible, also weighing on the single currency. On a macroeconomic level, Eurozone\u2019s HICP acceleration for October is expected to be confirmed next week and despite it being supportive for the EUR, the fact that the ECB had warned for a possible temporary acceleration of the HICP rate as we near the end of the year, practically cuts the support for the common currency. In the coming week, we highlight the release of the November preliminary PMI figures, with special interest being set on Frances\u2019 services sector yet primarily of Germany\u2019s crucial manufacturing sector. Should we see a renewed or even wider contraction of economic activity for the sector being reported, we may see the EUR weakening as the macroeconomic outlook for Germany in particular and the Eurozone as a whole could darken further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The calendar of economic releases in the coming week is rather empty for Aussie traders, hence we expect fundamentals to lead AUD. We highlight on Tuesday the release of RBA\u2019s November meeting minutes and should the document show a determination of RBA policymakers in keeping rates high for a prolonged period we may see AUD getting some support on a monetary level. On a deeper fundamental level, Trump\u2019s re election as President of the US tended to weigh on the Aussie. The prospect of the US imposing additional tariffs on Chinese products could also imply the export of less raw material from Australia towards China. It should be noted that worries for the recovery of the Chinese economy are allready at relatively high levels and the stimulus provided both on a fiscal and monetary levels from the Chinese government and PBoC did not show any substantial positive results yet to lift them. It should be noted that PBoC is to release its interest rate decision next Wednesday, yet the chances for the bank to cut rates again are rather slim. PBoC\u2019s policymakers may opt to wait and see before proceeding with their next move. Overall, should the market sentiment turn sour in the coming week, we may see Aussie suffering as it is perceived as a riskier asset given its commodity related nature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level Canada\u2019s employment data tended to send out some mixed signals last Friday, with the employment change figure dropping more than expected, yet the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5%, despite being expected to tick down. Overall the market reaction to the release tended to be on the bearish side for the CAD and the wider than expected acceleration of the building permits growth rate for September did not provide any comfort for the Loonie. In the coming week, we highlight the release of Canada\u2019s CPI rates for October next Tuesday, and a possible acceleration of the rates could imply some resilience of inflationary pressures in the Canadian economy. In turn such a release could provide some support for the CAD, as the dovishness of BoC may ease. For the time being the market is expecting the bank to proceed with a 25 basis points rate cut in its December meeting, with the alternative being a 50 basis points rate cut, so understandably BoC\u2019s intentions tend to weigh on the CAD on a monetary level. On a more fundamental level, we note the path of oil prices, given Canada\u2019s status as a major oil producing economy and thus should we see oil prices retreating we may see also the CAD slipping further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As an epilogue, normally we should expect the influence of the USD over the FX market to ease further given that the number and gravity of high impact financial releases from the US is easing if compared to the current week. Yet Trump as President elect is expected to keep interest about what\u2019s ongoing in the US on a fundamental basis, alive and kicking. As for US stockmarkets the post Trump election rally seems to have been dented and the earnings season is slowly coming to an end, yet in the coming week we still would like to name a few more earnings releases which could make headlines. We make a start with Walmart, Nio and Bidu on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday respectively, yet we see the case for Nvidia\u2019s earnings release to be probably the highlight, given the company\u2019s size and the market\u2019s focus on AI technology. As for gold we notice that the negative correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price sems to have been restored and should we see the USD gaining further we may see gold\u2019s price slipping lower and lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-84.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 October\u2019s CPI rates in sight<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-85.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 Preliminary November PMIs to rock the EUR<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-86.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 RBA\u2019s meeting minutes could generate interest for Aussie traders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-87.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 October\u2019s CPI rates to
rock the Loonie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-88.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGeneral Comment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n