{"id":121646,"date":"2025-10-15T16:38:29","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T13:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=121646"},"modified":"2026-01-16T14:05:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T12:05:16","slug":"equities-report-us-stockmarkets-regain-slowly-their-confidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/ph\/equities-report-us-stockmarkets-regain-slowly-their-confidence\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: US stockmarkets regain slowly their confidence"},"content":{"rendered":"

US stock markets are trying to recover after their wide drop last Friday. In today\u2019s report we are to discuss the frictions in the US-Sino trading relationship, the latest earnings reports and what is on the calendar but also the what the Fed\u2019s intentions are about its monetary policy. On a technical level we are to provide a technical analysis of S&P 500\u2019s daily chart for a rounder view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The frictions in the US-Sino trade relationships<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Maybe the key issue on a fundamental level for US equities over the past week were the threats of US President Trump to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese products entering the US. The tariffs were to be \u201cover and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,\u201d starting on Nov. 1. The US President but also White House officials, tried to ease the markets for the possible ramifications of such a scenario by stating “Don’t worry about China, everything will be fine!\u201d while also praising Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite that the two sides, China and the US, are set to begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms from each other\u2019s respective nation, that ship anything from toys to crude oil. However, China will not be charging those additional fees on Chinese-built ships even if they are operated by a U.S company. The tit-for-tat fees and threats of tariffs could possibly upend the global trade economy and may result in heightened volatility in the markets, as the two world\u2019s economic superpowers appear to be on track for a trade war starting on the 1st of November. Should the issue prove to be nothing more than a negotiating tactic on behalf of Trump thus easing the market\u2019s worries, we may see it improving the market sentiment, thus could provide some support for US equities. On the flip side further escalation in the tensions of the US-Sino trade relationships, we may see a bearish effect on US stock markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How dovish is actually the Fed?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A second issue that could affect the direction of US stock markets could be the Fed\u2019s intentions for its monetary policy. For the time being Fed Fund Futures (FFF) imply that the market expects the bank to deliver a rate cut in the October meeting and another one in the December meeting. The market also expects the bank to continue easing its monetary policy in 2026 with more rate cuts. In a latest development Fed Chairman Powell, stated that the economy is on a firmer footing, which tended to sound a bit more hawkish, yet at the same time also kept the door open for more rate cuts to come. We may see conflicting signals coming out today as some Fed policymakers which are scheduled to speak, may express doubts for a faster monetary policy easing while others may support the necessity of more rate cuts. Please note that Fed policymakers are to be entering a moratorium period for the next two weeks, given the meeting on the 29th of October. In any case should we see the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed to ease its monetary level intensify further, we may see US equities getting some support while should the market be forced to ease its dovish expectations for the bank\u2019s intentions we may see US equities retreating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings report released and coming up<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The earnings season has kicked off and we had yesterday the release of earnings reports of a number of major US banks, namely JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citygroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, all of them exceeding analysts\u2019 forecasts both on an EPS and revenue level. The better than expected results may improve the market sentiment as the banking sector semes to remain healthy resisting the pressure from the outside financial and industrial environment, foreshadowing also a relative health for the US economy. Tomorrow we note the release of the earnings report of Nestle, On Friday we get American Express\u2019s report, on Monday we note the release of BHP Group\u2019s data, on Tuesday we note the releases of Coca Cola, Netflix, Philip Morris, 3M, General Motors and finally next Wednesday we get the earnings reports of Tesla, IBM and AT&T.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Teknikal na Pagsusuri<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US500 Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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