\u201cWe note the Fed\u2019s intentions as a key driver behind the direction of the USD and expect it to continue driving the greenback in the coming week as well. A possible enhancement of the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed to remain on hold could provide aid for the USD. On a macro level, a possible release of the US PCE rates for October and the second estimate of the US GDP rate for Q3 could stir interest among traders.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The main event for the GBP in the past week may have been the release of the UK CPI Rates for October. The rates slowed down as was expected and the headline rate reached 3.6% while the core rate reached 3.4%. We note the slight easing of inflationary pressures for UK economy, yet at the same time note that the CPI Rates are still at too high levels and further easing is required. On a macro level, the calendar for pound traders is rather empty of high impact financial releases from the UK, thus we may see the pound seeking direction from fundamentals. On a monetary level we note the market\u2019s expectations for the BoE to cut rates in its December meeting, which may weigh on the sterling somewhat, yet that\u2019s still a way off, so the influence on the markets unless it alters materially may be low. In the coming week on a fundamental level, we may see UK Chancellor of the EX Chequer Reeves\u2019 Autumn budget playing a dominant role in the direction of the pound. The budget is to be released by Reeves on Wednesday the 26th. The big issue is how the UK Finance minister is trying to fill the expected deficit, while at the same time perform a balancing act by promoting growth in the UK economy. We may see the UK finance minister raising taxes on high personal income and possibly also capital gains and inheritance, given also the UK government\u2019s leftish orientation. At the same time, we may see the some reforms promoting possibly some deregulation, to loosen the reins on the UK economy. Should the event be perceived as promoting an expansionary fiscal policy for the UK economy, we may see the pound getting some support, while on the flip side, should the UK Government be perceived as overtaxing which in turn may weigh on the UK economic outlook we may see the event weighing on the pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (GBP)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn the coming week, in regards to the pound and given the rather empty calendar, we intend to focus on the release of UK finance minister Reeves\u2019 Autumn budget. The event is expected to play a dominant role for the pound\u2019s direction and should it be perceived as overtaxing the UK economy it could weigh on the pound. On the flip side should the expansionary fiscal policy be underscored the pound may get some support.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The main characteristic of JPY over the past week was its substantial weakening against the USD. On a macro level, we note the slight slowing of the CPI rates for October, yet at the same time we still consider their level as sufficient for the BoJ to continue supporting its plans for a possible tightening of its monetary policy. For the time being we note that JPY OIS imply that the market expects the bank to remain on hold in the December meeting and marginally expects the bank to proceed with a rate hike in the January meeting. It\u2019s characteristic of the bank\u2019s hawkish intentions that BoJ Board Member Koeda signalled the possibility of a rate hike even in the December meeting. Please note that on Thursday BoJ board member Noguchi is to make a speech and should he signal that the bank may tighten its monetary policy we may see JPY getting some support. On the other hand we highlight the political pressures exercised by Japanese Government on BoJ to take it slow with any tightening of its monetary policy, which tend to weigh on JPY. We have to note that JPY has reached very low levels against the USD and both BoJ and the Japanese Government are monitoring the situation with a great sense of urgency. The continuous weakening of JPY tends to enhance the possibility of a market intervention to its rescue, yet at the same time we note that even a possible market intervention may prove to be a temporary relief for the Yen. On the other hand a possible tightening of BoJ\u2019s monetary policy could act as a more lasting deterrent for JPY sellers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (JPY)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe highlight the continuous weakening of JPY against the USD over the past few days. It should be noted that the situation is being closely monitored by BoJ and the Japanese Government with a great sense of urgency and we add that as long as the JPY continues to weaken the possibility of a market intervention to its rescue increases.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The UER is about to end the week in the reds against the USD and on a macro-economic level we note that the preliminary PMI figures for November sent out mixed signals and our worries tend to continue to revolve around Germany\u2019s manufacturing sector. Given the macroeconomic worries for growth in the Euro Zone, we note the release of the revised Q3 GDP rates for Germany and France, yet the highlight may prove to be the release of the preliminary HICP rates for November of Germany and France. Should we see the rates accelerate we may see the market\u2019s expectations for the ECB\u2019s intentions shifting. For the time being the EUR OIS imply that the market expects the bank to remain on hold until the end of the coming year. On a more positive note the EU Commission announced that it expects growth to accelerate, yet military spending increases debt. Also on a fundamental level, we note that the war in Ukraine continues to be a destabilising factor for EU\u2019s east flank. The recent incidents with a sabotage of a train line alleged from Russia and a breaking of the Romanian airspace by a drone, as well as the recent comment by Germany\u2019s defence minister Boris Pistorius, that this may have been the last peaceful summer, are indicative of existing and intensifying uncertainty. The uncertainty tends to weigh on the macroeconomic outlook thus also on the single currency. The latest US peace plan seems to have been failed to gain traction, yet it\u2019s a positive that the US is still active in finding a solution. Should we see market worries about the issue intensifying, we may see the EUR losing further ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (EUR)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOn a macroeconomic level we note the release of Germany\u2019s and France\u2019s preliminary HICP rates for November as the highlight of the week. On a monetary level the markets\u2019 expectations for the ECB to remain on hold throughout 2026 tend to be supportive for the EUR. Yet on a fundamental level, the war in Ukraine tends to create uncertainty and tends to weigh on the single currency.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Aussie seems about to end the week deep in the reds against the USD. On a fundamental level, the intensification of the risk averse market approach tended to weigh on the Aussie which is considered as a riskier asset in the FX market, given its commodity nature. Should we see in the coming week, an easing of the market cautiousness we may see the Aussie gaining some ground. In the coming week, on a macro economic level, we note the release of the October CPI rates as the highlight for the week. Should the rates accelerate implying a resilience of inflationary pressures in the Australian economy, we may see the Aussie getting some ground as it could entail a hardening of RBA\u2019s stance. For the time being AUD OIS imply that the market does not seem to price in the bank to cut rates until the end of the coming year. Such expectations tend to provide some support for the Aussie. Last but not least, we note the close economic ties of Australia with China, hence should we see tensions in the US-Sino relationship reemerging, we may see the Aussie retreating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analyst\u2019s opinion (AUD)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Aussie seems about to end the week deep in the reds against the USD as the market\u2019s cautiousness tended to weigh on the commodity currency. In the coming week we highlight the release of Australia\u2019s CPI rates for October and a possible acceleration could provide support for AUD.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Also the Loonie seems about to end the week in the reds against the USD, with the cautious market sentiment weighing on the commodity currency. It should be noted that the drop of oil prices may have weighed on the Loonie as well given Canada\u2019s status as a major oil producer. Market worries for a possible oversupply of the international oil market tend to drive oil prices lower and should they drop further, we may see the CAD suffering further. Also on a fundamental level, the voting of Canada PM Carney\u2019s first budget, in the Canadian Parliament, even with a narrow majority, is considered as a positive for the CAD. On a monetary level, we note that BoC seems to remain firm on not easing its monetary policy. Currently CAD OIS imply that the market expects the bank to remain on hold until the end of next year. Overall such expectations tend to be supportive for the Loonie. It should be noted that the bank is expected to remain on hold despite Canada\u2019s CPI rates slowing down in a signal of easing inflationary pressures in the Canadian economy. In the coming week, we shift our attention on growth and highlight the release of Canada\u2019s GDP rates for Q3. The rate is currently in the negatives, and should it remain below zero, we may see market worries for a recession in the Canadian economy, intensifying and possibly weighing on the Loonie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-95.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 Autumn budget to move the pound<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-96.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nJPY \u2013 Market intervention possible<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-97.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 Germany\u2019s and France\u2019s preliminary November HICP rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-98.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 Australia\u2019s October CPI rates could shake the Aussie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-99.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCAD \u2013 Canada\u2019s Annualised GDP rate for Q3, possibly the main event for the Loonie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-100.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n