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The USD continued to retreat yesterday for a third day in a row against its counterparts, allowing for gold’s price to continue to gain. US financial releases once again were on the disappointing side, as the GDP’s 2nd estimated rate for Q2 showed that the US economy grew, yet at a slower pace than initially calculated. At the same time, the ADP national employment figure for August dropped more than expected, implying that the rate of hiring in the US private sector slowed down even further enhancing market expectations for a lower Non-Farm Payrolls figure to be released on Friday for the same month. There were some indications also that inflation is slowing down yet more data are expected today and could affect USD’s direction.
JPY practically failed to gain substantial ground against the weakening USD as the monetary policy outlooks of the Fed and BoJ continue to diverge, given BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy stance. BoJ board member Nakamura during today’s Asian session warned against a possible premature tightening of the bank’s monetary policy, reaffirming the market’s expectations for BoJ’s dovish stance. Overall BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy is expected to continue to weigh on the Japanese currency.
On a technical level, we note that JPY failed to gain against the weakening USD and characteristically USD/JPY remained unchanged with little volatility, between the 146.60 (R1) resistance level and the 145.10 (S1) support line. For the time being, we tend to maintain a bias for the sideways motion of the pair given also that the RSI indicator continues to run along the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market. For a bullish outlook, we would require the pair the clearly break the 146.60 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 148.80 (R2) resistance base. For a bearish outlook, we would require USD/JPY to drop, break the 145.10 (S1) support line and aim for the 143.35 (S2) support level.
The common currency got a boost yesterday as Spain’s HICP rate accelerated for August and Germany’s respective rate failed to slow down as much as the market expected. We highlight the release of France’s and the Eurozone’s August HICP rates and should they accelerate or even slow down less than expected then we may see the common currency jumping as they would imply more stubborn inflation and the chances of another rate hike in ECB’s next meeting may increase. On the monetary front, we highlight the release of ECB’s meeting minutes for July, while ECB board member Schnabel is to make statements about the dynamics of inflation and should the two show a more hawkish ECB we may see support for the EUR intensifying and vice versa.
EUR/USD rose yesterday forcing us to raise the first resistance line, as it hit a floor on the 1.0940 (R1) resistance level. We tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the pair given the pair’s rise and note that the RSI indicator is above the reading of 50 yet seems to be slowly falling which may imply that the bullish sentiment may be fading. Should bulls take over, we may see EUR/USD breaking the 1.0940 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1045 (R2) level, which we also raised, starting to form an upward trendline. Should the bears be in charge, we may see EUR/USD breaking the 1.0835 (S1) line and aim for the 1.0735 (S2) support level.
Other highlights for the day:
Today, we note from Turkey the GDP rate for Q2 and we note that Atlanta Fed President Bostic and BoE’s chief economist Pill are scheduled to speak. Later, we get from Canada the business barometer indicator for August and the current account balance for Q2. From the US we note the release of the consumption rate for July, the Core PCE price index for July and the weekly initial jobless claims figure while Boston Fed President Collins will be speaking. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s final manufacturing PMI figure as well as China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI figure, both being for August.
EUR/USD H4 Chart
Support: 1.0835 (S1), 1.0735 (S2), 1.0635 (S3)
Resistance: 1.0940 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1145 (R3)
USD/JPY H4 Chart
Support: 145.10 (S1), 143.35 (S2), 141.50 (S3)
Resistance: 146.60 (R1), 148.80 (R2), 150.10 (R3)
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