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The greenback tended to remain rather stable against its counterparts on a rather quiet Tuesday, yet also during today’s Asian session. On the monetary front, Fed Chairman Powell failed to excite markets as the comments made were not related to monetary policy as such but rather a denial of a deeper involvement of central banks in climate change. That came in contrast to ECB board member Schnabel who tended to favor such an involvement of the bank and that the ECB should step up its efforts towards that end. US stock markets were in the greens yesterday as there seems to be extended optimism that inflationary pressures in the US economy are to cool further and in turn could ease the Fed’s aggressive hawkish stance. On the other hand, the threat of a possible recession still looms over the US economy, but also on a global level and we note that the projections for the economic performance from the World Bank, released yesterday, tend to underscore the negative outlook.
The release highlights one of the lowest growth rates on a global level for the past 20 years and tended to place more burden on developing economies as they are struggling with high debt and weak currencies. At the same time, we note the strengthening of the Aussie, which inched higher also due to inflation accelerating for November while the retail sales growth rate accelerated beyond expectations showing that the average Australian consumer is willing and able to actually spend more in the Australian economy. The release could cause a more aggressive, hawkish stance on behalf of RBA, which had eased its hawkishness especially given that the bank is to examine its interest rate decision on a case-by-case basis. The reopening of China is an issue that continues to remain under market participants’ microscope and we note that China’s reopening triggered a rise of infections with neighboring countries South Korea and Japan placing restrictions. In a direct response China has suspended visas from the prementioned countries causing some tensions, yet the Chinese defended their actions as being “a direct and reasonable response” according to Chinese newspapers.
On the commodities front WTI’s price tended to edge lower as API reported a massive 14.865 million barrels build-up of oil inventories in the US exactly highlighting that demand was not able to catch up with production levels and implying a slack in the US oil market. Oil traders are expected to keep an eye out for today’s EIA crude oil inventories figure to see if the rise is verified. EUR/USD tended to remain stable just above the 1.0715 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue yet the high reading of the RSI indicator tends to imply that the prospect of a bullish outlook is still present. Should the bulls actually take charge of the pair’s direction, we may see EUR/USD breaking the 1.0845 (R1) resistance line and aim for higher grounds.
Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the 1.0715 (S1) support line and aim if not reach the 1.0588 (S2) support level. AUD/USD despite a slight bearish movement yesterday, managed to recover and stay above the 0.6900 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain a bias for a sideways motion yet the bulls seem to remain present for the pair. Should a buying interest be expressed for the Aussie, we may see the pair aiming if not breaking the 0.7010 (R1) resistance line. Should sellers be in charge of the pair’s price action, we may see AUD/USD breaking clearly the 0.6900 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6800 (S2) support level.
Other highlights for the day:
Today in the European session, we note the release of Turkey’s current account balance for November and from the Czech Republic the CPI rates for December, while in the American session, oil traders may be more interested in the release of the EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of Japan’s current account balance for November, Australia’s trade balance for the same month and China’s inflation metrics for December.
EUR/USD H4 Chart
Support: 1.0715 (S1), 1.0585 (S2), 1.0440 (S3)
Resistance: 1.0845 (R1), 1.1000 (R2), 1.1180 (R3)
AUD/USD H4 Chart
Support: 0.6900 (S1), 0.6800 (S2), 0.6630 (S3)
Resistance: 0.7010 (R1), 0.7125 (R2), 0.7265 (R3)
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