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The USD remained relatively unchanged against its counterparts on Friday despite the mixed picture of the US employment market for February provided by the relevant data in the early American session. We highlight the rise of the unemployment rate to 3.9% implying a loosening of the US employment market for February, while the NFP figure dropped yet not as much as was expected thus providing some comfort. Yet the message seems clear that the tight financial conditions in the US economy, have started to take their toll on the US employment market. Attention now turns towards the release of the US CPI rates for February due out on Tuesday’s American session and a possible slowdown may enhance the market’s expectations for earlier rate cuts by the Fed and thus weaken the USD.
On a technical level, the USD against the JPY weakened on Friday, allowing USD/JPY to break the 147.75 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance and presented some stabilization. Yet for our bearish outlook to change we would require the pair to break the downward trendline guiding it since the 5a. of March. Also, we note that the RSI indicator remains below the reading of 30 highlighting a strong bearish sentiment for the pair, yet at the same time may imply that the pair is in oversold territory and ripe for a correction higher. Should the bears maintain control as expected, we may see the pair breaking the 145.90 (S1) support line, thus paving the way for the 144.35 (S2) support base. Should the bulls take over, we may see the pair reversing course breaking the prementioned downward trendline, the 147.75 (R1) resistance line, and opening the gates for the 149.55 (R2) resistance barrier.
North of the US border, Canada’s employment data were also rather mixed, as the unemployment rate ticked up, yet the employment change figure rose instead of falling as expected. The release tended to provide some support for the Loonie, yet any gains quickly evaporated. Given the low number of high-impact financial releases stemming from Canada, we expect the Looney to be led by fundamentals this week.
USD/CAD edged higher on Friday, yet seems to have hit a ceiling at the 1.3485 (R1) resistance line and stabilized. Given that the downward trendline was broken and the pair stabilised somewhat we switch our bearish outlook for a sideways motion bias initially, until the market decides the direction of the pair’s next leg. Should the buyers be in control of USD/CAD’s direction we may see the pair breaking the 134.85 (R1) resistance line and aiming for the 1.3610 (R2) resistance level. Should a selling interest be expressed by the market we may see the pair aiming if not breaching the 1.3365 (S1) support line.
Other highlights for the day:
Today in the European session, we note the release of Norway’s and the Czech Republic’s CPI rates for February. Just before Monday’s Asian session, we get New Zealand’s electronic card retail sales for February and later on Australia’s NAB Business conditions and confidence for February and RBA Ass. Governor Hunter is scheduled to speak, while from Japan we get the corporate goods prices for February.
As for the rest of the week:
On Tuesday, we get the UK’s ILO Unemployment rate, Employment change figure, and Average weekly earnings all for the month of January, and ending of the day are the US CPI rates for February. On Wednesday, we note the UK’s preliminary GDP rate on a mom level and manufacturing output rate both for January and the Eurozone’s industrial production rate also for January. On Thursday, we note Sweden’s CPI rate for February, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure, PPI Final demand rate, and retail sales rate both for February and Canada’s manufacturing sales rate for January. Lastly, on Friday we get the US Industrial production rate for February and the University of Michigan sentiment figure for March.
USD/CAD H4 Chart
Support: 1.3365 (S1), 1.3265 (S2), 1.3180 (S3)
Resistance: 1.3485 (R1), 1.3610 (R2), 1.3710 (R3)
USD/JPY H4 Chart
Support: 145.90 (S1), 144.35 (S2), 142.85 (S3)
Resistance: 147.75 (R1), 149.55 (R2), 150.85 (R3)
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