{"id":113347,"date":"2025-06-04T12:15:34","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T09:15:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=113347"},"modified":"2025-06-04T12:17:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T09:17:06","slug":"boc-interest-rate-decision-day-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/pt\/boc-interest-rate-decision-day-2\/","title":{"rendered":"BoC interest rate decision day"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bank of Canada\u2019s interest rate decision is set to occur during today\u2019s American session. In particular the majority of economists are currently anticipating the bank to remain on hold with CAD OIS currently implying a 72% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Thus attention may turn to the bank\u2019s accompanying statement where market participants may look for some insight into the bank\u2019s possible monetary policy path in the future. Therefore, should the minutes be perceived as hawkish in nature it may aid the Loonie and vice versa. In our view, in spite of the relative easing of the hawkish tariff rhetoric from the US, it still remains a concern as seen by the lack of progress being made with trade talks between the US and China and the recent 50% tariff on steel and aluminium imports into the US. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see the bank opt for a more cautionary tone which may be perceived as relatively hawkish in nature, which in turn may aid the Loonie.In the US the ADP national employment figure May is set to be released today and should it echo the resilient labour market narrative which appeared yesterday with a better than expected JOLTs Job openings figure for April, it could potentially aid the dollar despite the releases being for two separate months.In regards to the ongoing deliberations between the US and China on trade, President Trump has stated on his TruthSocial account that \u201cI like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!\u201d. The President\u2019s comments showcase the difficulty in the progression of trade talks between the US and China, which may increase market worries about the global economy and could potentially aid gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a technical level XAU\/USD appears to be moving in an upwards fashion and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 60, implying a bullish market sentiment, in addition to the MACD indicator below our chart and the upwards moving trendline. For our bullish outlook to continue we would require a clear break above the 3385 (R1) resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 3500 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between the 3240 (S1) support level and the 3385 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 3240 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 3115 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EURUSD appears to be moving in an upwards fashion,yet the pair does appear to be facing resistance at our 1.1420 (R1) level. Nonetheless, we opt for a bullish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 9th of May. For our bullish outlook to continue we would require a clear break above the 1.1420 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being 1.1685 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between the 1.1185 (S1) support level and the 1.1420 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 1.1185 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.0950 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we note the release of the Czech Republic\u2019s preliminary CPI rates, Euro Zone\u2019s and the UK\u2019s final composite and services PMI figures and later on we get the US ADP national employment figure and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure all being for May. Oil traders may be more interested in the release of the weekly EIA reading, while on a monetary level, besides Canada\u2019s BoC interest rate decision, we also note that Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks. In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, we get Japan\u2019s overall labour cash earnings for April, Australia\u2019s April trade data and China\u2019s Caixoin Services PMI figure for May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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