{"id":118491,"date":"2025-08-13T14:31:01","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T11:31:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=118491"},"modified":"2025-08-13T14:31:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T11:31:40","slug":"australias-july-employment-data-coming-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/pt\/australias-july-employment-data-coming-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s July employment data coming up"},"content":{"rendered":"

The USD weakened against its counterparts yesterday as the release of the US CPI rates for July sent mixed signals. On the one hand, the headline rate failed to accelerate even marginally as was expected, yet on the other, the headline rate accelerated beyond market expectations, implying a resilience of inflationary pressures. The main issue for the release though, was that it allowed for the markets\u2019 dovish expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions to be maintained, if not be enhanced after the weak July employment data released on August 1st. Currently, Fed Fund Futures tend to imply a probability of 98% for the bank to proceed with a 25-basis points rate cut in its next meeting, September 17th. Thus, the market\u2019s expectations for the bank to cut rates tend to weigh on the greenback, yet at the same time, tend to provide support for US equities and gold\u2019s price. Today, we expect fundamentals to lead the greenback in the absence of high-impact financial releases stemming from the US. Currently we highlight US President Trump\u2019s efforts to undermine the independence of the Fed, while in a latest development, White House spokeswoman Leavitt mentioned yesterday that the US President was considering a lawsuit against Powell, for the renovation of the Fed\u2019s building, something that may add more pressure on the Fed Chairman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US stock markets were on the rise yesterday and its characteristic that S&P 500, breached the 6420 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support reaching new record high levels. Given that the index\u2019s price action was able to breach the prior record high level and that the RSI indicator is nearing the reading of 70, implying an intensifying bullish market sentiment for the index, we switch our bias for a sideways motion and adopt a bullish outlook for the index. We set as the next possible target for the bulls the 6600 (R1) resistance line. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the 6420 (S1) support line and aim if not reach the 6140 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, we highlight the release of Australia\u2019s employment data for July given also the importance RBA places on the Australian employment market as expressed in the accompanying statement for its latest interest decision and mentioned in yesterday\u2019s report. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down, to 4.2% and the employment change figure to rise to 25k if compared to June\u2019s meager 2k. Given also that the wage price index failed to slow down for Q2, the forecasts for July\u2019s employment data tend to imply a possible tightening of the Australian employment market and should actual rates and figures exceed their forecasts, we may see the Aussie getting some support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD maintained its sideways motion yesterday and edged higher in today\u2019s Asian session, yet remained well between the 6620 (R1) resistance line and the 0.6375 (S1) support level. We tend to maintain our bias for the pair\u2019s sideways motion to continue for the time being yet also note the rise of the RSI indicator, implying some slight bullish tendencies. Should the bulls be in charge, we may see AUD\/USD breaking the 0.6620 (R1) resistance line and starting to aim the 0.6940 (R2) level. Should the bears take over, we may see AUD\/USD breaking the 0.6375 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 0.6130 (R2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In an easy-going Wednesday, we note the release of Germany\u2019s final HICP rates for July, while oil traders may be more interested in the release of EIA\u2019s weekly crude oil inventories figure. On a monetary level, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic are scheduled to speak while BoC\u2019s summary of monetary policy deliberations is to be released. In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, we get Australia\u2019s employment data for July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US 500 Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"support<\/figure>\n\n\n\n