{"id":99905,"date":"2025-02-05T15:22:22","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T13:22:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=99905"},"modified":"2025-02-05T15:28:37","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T13:28:37","slug":"equities-report-the-release-of-the-us-employment-report-for-january-is-the-next-big-test-for-us-equities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/pt\/equities-report-the-release-of-the-us-employment-report-for-january-is-the-next-big-test-for-us-equities\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: The release of the US employment report for January is the next big test for US Equities"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s tariffs delivered a hit on US equities markets on Monday, yet overall US stockmarkets seem to have weathered the storm. Today we are to take a look at the evolving trade war between China and the US, the upcoming financial releases, upcoming earnings reports and the situation revolving around Alphabet. For a rounder we will be providing a technical analysis of S&P 500\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The evolving and consequences of Trump\u2019s tariffs<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Monday, the US government avoided at the last minute to impose tariffs on US imports from Mexico and Canada, by postponing it. The postponement is to last for 30 days and tended to ease market worries somewhat. Yet that was not the case with the additional 10% tariffs across all Chinese imports in the US, which are now in effect. The Chinese replied practically immediately, by imposing tariffs of 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos according to Reuters. Also, China is now reported stating that it will start an antimonopoly investigation in Alphabet\u2019s Google and at the same time, included in its \u201cunreliable entities list\u201d some US companies. China is also imposing export controls over some rare earths and metals that are critical for hi-tech gadgets and the clean energy transition. The issue is expected to be maintained and on a fundamental level, should the frictions in the US-Sino relationships be enhanced, we may see them weighing on US stockmarkets as business opportunities may shrink. Overall the risk factor has been elevated and the market\u2019s uncertainty seems to intensify, which could also be a deeper fundamental reason not allowing US stock markets to rise at their full swing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The release of January\u2019s US employment data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We also note the release of the US employment report for January as the next big test for US Equities. The non-farm payrolls is expected to drop to 170k if compared to December\u2019s 256k, the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.1% and the average earnings growth rate to slow down slightly. Should the actual rates and figures meet their respective forecasts, we may see them providing some support for US equity markets as it may imply a relative easing of the US employment market, which in turn may ease the Fed\u2019s doubts for further rate cuts. Yet the actual data tend to differ from prognosis, hence the element of surprise for stock \u00a0markets is quite probable and hence may lead to an asymmetric reaction of the market. Should the actual rates and figures show an unexpected tightening of the US employment market, we may see US stock markets retreating as the Fed\u2019s decisiveness to keep rates unchanged may be enhanced. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alphabet\u2019s earnings and investments<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We allready mentioned how China in response to Trump\u2019s tariffs is about to open an antimonopoly investigation on Alphabet\u2019s (#GOOG) Google. The antitrust probe is expected to focus on the company\u2019s Android operating system affecting Chinese phone makers like Xiaomi. The news did not seem to hit the company\u2019s share price, yet as the probe progresses\u00a0 we may see the issue weighing on the share\u2019s price. Furthermore the company\u2019s\u00a0 earnings release was a bit lukewarm, as the EPS figure surpassed expectations a bit, while the revenue figure undershoot its target, maybe causing a bit of disappointment maybe focusing mostly on the cloud segment of the business. Yet the sensation was Alphabet\u2019s announcement yesterday that it will invest US$75 billion on Artificial Intelligence a substantially higher number than what some analysts have mentioned around US$58 billion ,as per Reuters and US$52.5 billion in 2024. The increased amount scheduled to be invested in AI may have raised some eyebrows of doubt, given the appearance of DeepSeek, yet seems to have been embraced by market participants with enthusiasm and could provide some support for the share\u2019s price. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upcoming earnings reports<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the coming days we get a slew of earnings reports, yet some stand apart. We would note the release of the earnings reports of Amazon (#AMZN) as a key release for the US tech sector, tomorrow Wednesday in the after closing hours. Also on Friday we note the release of Canopy Growth (#CGC) while on Monday the 10a.<\/sup> of February we get McDonalds (#MCD) figures and on Tuesday the release of Coca Cola\u2019s (#KO) earnings report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise t\u00e9cnica<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US500Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n