{"id":53289,"date":"2023-01-19T15:48:15","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T13:48:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=53289"},"modified":"2025-10-17T12:27:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T09:27:36","slug":"weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/ru\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak US data weighs on WTI"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/wti-lifted-by-chinas-reopening-prospects\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>WTI<\/strong><\/a> saw its <strong>winning streak<\/strong> <strong>snap<\/strong> yesterday, after <strong>disappointing data<\/strong> stemming from the US rekindled worries for an <strong>impending recession<\/strong>. On the other hand, <strong>persistent optimism<\/strong> for increased consumption levels from <strong>China<\/strong> seemed to provide a <strong>floor under crude prices<\/strong>, despite surging covid cases and grim growth outlooks. Another large, <strong>unexpected buildup<\/strong> in crude inventories may have put some pressure on WTI and today energy traders await for an update from <strong>EIA stocks<\/strong>. In this report we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Recession worries outweighed China\u2019s reopening optimism<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Crude oil pared early gains<\/strong> during yesterday\u2019s session after weak economic data in regards to <strong>consumer<\/strong> <strong>spending<\/strong> \u0438 <strong>industrial<\/strong> <strong>production<\/strong> but also due to repeated <strong>hawkish remarks by Fed policy makers<\/strong>. Even though <strong>retail sales<\/strong> for the month of December <strong>contracted more than expected<\/strong>, proving in a way that the <strong>Fed\u2019s tightening efforts<\/strong> are indeed <strong>demand destructive<\/strong>, they also <strong>increase<\/strong> the <strong>probability<\/strong> of US <strong>entering<\/strong> a <strong>recessionary period<\/strong>. Furthermore, also worrying was the further <strong>deterioration<\/strong> of the <strong>industrial<\/strong> <strong>production<\/strong> rate for the month of December, reporting its second month in a row in the negatives and simultaneously the largest drop since September 2021, practically <strong>intensified fears<\/strong> of a <strong>slowdown<\/strong> in the <strong>world\u2019s largest economy<\/strong>. Adding more salt to injury, were the <strong>hawkish<\/strong> comments of St. Louis <strong>Fed President<\/strong> <strong>Bullard<\/strong>, who continues to <strong>reiterate<\/strong> the need for <strong>more rate increases<\/strong>, stressed the need for raising the <strong>terminal rate<\/strong> <strong>north of 5%<\/strong> in order to bring inflation down, closer to the <strong>central banks\u2019<\/strong> <strong>2% target<\/strong>. He later added \u201cwe\u2019re almost into a zone that we could call <strong>restrictive<\/strong> &#8211; we\u2019re not quite there yet\u201d and that the bank should not stall before getting to the end zone. Cleveland Fed President Mester\u2019s speech shared similar characteristics, leaning towards the <strong>hawkish<\/strong> side, but refrained from disclosing the magnitude of further hikes. Overall, the <strong>intensification of worries<\/strong> for a possible <strong>recession<\/strong> and stark comments for more <strong>aggressive monetary policy tightening<\/strong> kept energy bulls at bay, pushing them to reconsider their short-term outlooks. The <strong>FOMC<\/strong> <strong>policymakers<\/strong> will convene on the 1<sup>st<\/sup> of February and currently the <strong>Feds Fund Futures<\/strong> showcases a 92% probability for a <strong>25-basis points<\/strong> rate hike scenario to materialize.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Crude oil inventory stocks keep piling up<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Yesterday the <strong>API crude oil inventories<\/strong> marked the third consecutive week of large <strong>buildups<\/strong>, as the agency reported another <strong>unexpected pile up<\/strong> of 7.6M barrels, exceeding expectations. The <strong>EIA weekly<\/strong> <strong>crude oil inventories<\/strong> report is pending, and it is expected to hit the market later today. According to estimates the figure is estimated to report a drawdown of -0.5M barrels, yet analysts caution that the result may present an <strong>upside surprise<\/strong>, mirroring yesterday\u2019s API results. Last week <strong>EIA reported its third largest buildup of crude stocks ever<\/strong>, yet we noted that the effect of the report was dampened by the overwhelmingly <strong>optimistic outlooks<\/strong> for <strong>China\u2019s reopening<\/strong>, which fueled further <strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> ascend last week. Should the data indicate another <strong>large build up in crude oil<\/strong> inventories later today, we may see <strong>WTI relent some ground and fall lower.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><strong><u>\u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3><strong>WTI Cash H4<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-53293 size-full\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/wti-oil-4h-chart-19-01-2022-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"291\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Looking at <strong>WTICash<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe <strong>oil prices unable to continue<\/strong> their <strong>ascend<\/strong> <strong>higher<\/strong>, topping near the 82.60 (R2) level, break below the <strong>ascending trendline<\/strong> initiated on the 11<sup>th<\/sup> of January and then <strong>retracing to lower ground<\/strong>. We hold a <strong>sideways bias<\/strong> for the <strong>commodity<\/strong>, being confined between 80.00 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> and 76.60 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>levels<\/strong>. Supporting our case is the <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a value of 47, <strong>signaling indecision<\/strong> surrounding <strong>WTI<\/strong>. We also note that the price action may find <strong>support<\/strong> near the 100 and 200-period <strong>\u0421\u043a\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u044f\u0449\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0435<\/strong>, which could be interpreted as another signal for <strong>temporary<\/strong> <strong>consolidation<\/strong> \u0438 <strong>extension<\/strong> of <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>price<\/strong> <strong>movement<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bulls<\/strong> take initiative over crude\u2019s direction, we may see the price action rise and <strong>break<\/strong> the 80.00 (R1) and move closer to the 82.60 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong> for a breakout attempt. Should on the hand the <strong>bears<\/strong> take over, we may see the price action fall below the 76.60 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> level and move decisively lower towards the 73.50 (S2) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Disclaimer:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earlier this week oil prices rebounded from their lowest levels for the year&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[404,380,403],"class_list":["post-53289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-oil-market","tag-oil-price","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weak US data weighs on WTI | Oil Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The most important and recent updates from the Oil-WTI market along with our observations of WTI from a technical analysis perspective.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53289\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weak US data weighs on WTI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The most important and recent updates from the Oil-WTI market along with our observations of WTI from a technical analysis perspective.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/ru\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-19T13:48:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-17T09:27:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"Weak US data weighs on WTI\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-19T13:48:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T09:27:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":772,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"oil and gas\",\"oil market\",\"oil price\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ru-RU\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\",\"name\":\"Weak US data weighs on WTI | Oil Report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-19T13:48:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T09:27:36+00:00\",\"description\":\"The most important and recent updates from the Oil-WTI market along with our observations of WTI from a technical analysis perspective.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"ru-RU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Weak US data weighs on WTI\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/ru\\\/\",\"name\":\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\",\"description\":\"&quot;Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners&#039; needs. 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