{"id":114803,"date":"2025-06-16T11:40:44","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T08:40:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=114803"},"modified":"2025-06-16T11:41:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T08:41:06","slug":"boj-expected-to-remain-on-hold-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/th\/boj-expected-to-remain-on-hold-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"BoJ expected to remain on hold tomorrow"},"content":{"rendered":"

Market worries deriving from Israel-Iran conflict continue to be high with the conflict threatening to evolve into a full regional war. It\u2019s characteristic that Pakistan stated that should Iran be hit by nuclear weapons it will response in kind. Market worries at the current stage tend to revolve around oil as the global supply chain of the commodity comes under threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI\u2019s price corrected lower in today\u2019s Asian session, breaking the 72.20 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We maintain a bullish outlook for the commodity\u2019s price as despite the correction lower, the upward movement does not seem to have been broken. Yet the fact that the RSI indicator is still above the reading of 70 and the price action is above the upper Bollinger Band, both signalling that WTI\u2019s price is still at overbought levels, and correction lower ay be extended. For a bullish outlook we would require WTI\u2019s price, to break the 72.20 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 75.65 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we WTI\u2019s price breaking the 68.40 (S1) support line and pave the way for the 64.00 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Japan, BoJ is to deliver its interest rate decision in tomorrow\u2019s Asian session and is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.50% and JPY OIS currently imply that the market has almost fully priced in such a scenario and the market is marginally expecting the bank to possibly deliver a rate hike near the end of the year. Hence should BoJ allow for hawkish signals to be included in its forward guidance, we may see the Yen getting some support as the market may shift towards a more hawkish anticipation for BoJ\u2019s intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY appears to be moving in a sideways fashion remaining well within the boundaries set by the 145.50 (R1) and the 142.20 (S1) levels. We maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue between the prementioned levels. It\u2019s characteristic that the RSI indicator is running along the reading of 50, implying a relative indecisiveness on behalf of market participants. Should the bulls gain control over the pair\u2019s direction we may see USD\/JPY breaking the 145.50 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 148.20 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears get in the driver\u2019s seat, we may see USD\/JPY breaking the 142.20 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 139.60 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we get the number of Canada\u2019s House starts for May and NY Fed manufacturing index for June, while ECB Board Member Cipollone speaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the rest of the week:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday we get Germany\u2019s ZEW indicators for June and from the US the retail sales and industrial output growth rates both being for May, while it\u2019s the last day of the G7 meeting in Canada. On Wednesday we get Japan\u2019s machinery orders for April and trade data for May, UK\u2019s and the Euro Zone\u2019s inflation metrics for May, from Sweden Riksbank\u2019s interest rate decision, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure while BoC Governor Macklem is scheduled to speak and the Fed is to release its interest rate decision. On Thursday we get New Zealand\u2019s GDP rate for Q1 and Australia\u2019s employment data for May and on a monetary level, we note the interest rate decisions of Switzerland\u2019s SNB, Norway\u2019s Norgesbank and the UK\u2019s BoE. On Friday on a monetary level, we note the release of the interest rate decision of China\u2019s PBOC, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda\u2019s speech and the release of the BoJ\u2019s May meeting minutes, while as for financial data we get Japan\u2019s CPI rates for May, UK\u2019s retail sales for May, the US Philly Fed Business index for June, Canada\u2019s retail sales for April, and Euro Zone\u2019s preliminary consumer confidence for June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI\u00a0 Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"support<\/figure>\n\n\n\n