{"id":57749,"date":"2023-03-14T16:08:29","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T14:08:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=57749"},"modified":"2025-10-17T10:18:05","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T07:18:05","slug":"svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/th\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"SVB-induced chaos nudges investors to pile into gold"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week\u2019s NFP<\/strong><\/span><\/a> results were overshadowed by the abrupt collapse<\/strong> of the Silicon Valley Bank<\/strong> \u0e41\u0e25\u0e30 distorted<\/strong> the market\u2019s projections<\/strong> for the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> tightening<\/strong> cycle<\/strong>. The collapse led investors to flee en-masse towards the precious<\/strong> aiding to its ascent above the $1900 key psychological<\/strong> level<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious<\/strong> metal\u2019s<\/strong> price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a \u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e27\u0e34\u0e40\u0e04\u0e23\u0e32\u0e30\u0e2b\u0e4c\u0e17\u0e32\u0e07\u0e40\u0e17\u0e04\u0e19\u0e34\u0e04<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SVB\u2019s fallout scatters money markets projections<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Market consensus about the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> hiking<\/strong> path<\/strong> forward radically changed since last week. Following Fed Chair Powell\u2019s<\/strong> comments, the market shifted their outlooks reflecting the hawkish<\/strong> prospects<\/strong> of the Fed<\/strong>, once the door for a larger magnitude hike<\/strong> sprung open. As a result, we saw the market shifting their projections, bracing for 50 basis points<\/strong> hike<\/strong> in the March meeting. As soon as the SVB\u2019s<\/strong> collapse<\/strong> headlines hit however, the market quickly downgraded their projections for the 50 basis points hike and opted for a 25 basis points<\/strong> hike<\/strong> scenario<\/strong>, reverting to pre-Powell<\/strong> speech expectations. After the weekend and the Federal Reserve<\/strong>, FDIC<\/strong> and the Treasury<\/strong> Department\u2019s<\/strong> joint decision to step in and ensure that depositors<\/strong> would get back their money back, we saw a complete 180 degree turn from the market, dismissing the 25-basis points scenario all together and ended up pricing in that the Fed<\/strong> would stay on hold<\/strong> in the March meeting. Earlier today the market was split equally between no hike<\/strong> \u0e41\u0e25\u0e30 25 basis points<\/strong> scenarios in anticipation of the inflation report. The underlying message from these observations is that the market has no clue on what\u2019s to follow as we inch closer to the Fed meeting<\/strong> and further developments from the SVB<\/strong> case<\/strong> alongside the results from crucial US<\/strong> related data<\/strong> may be needed for more accurate assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed deploys BTFP protection mechanism to stifle contagion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the weekend the FED<\/strong>, FIDC<\/strong> \u0e41\u0e25\u0e30 Treasury Department<\/strong> traversed extraordinary lengths to maintain stability<\/strong> \u0e41\u0e25\u0e30 contain undue panic<\/strong> within the market and decided to go forth with the decision to protect uninsured SVB depositors\u2019 money<\/strong>. Furthermore, the Fed<\/strong> announced the creation of its new lending program for banks, dubbed the Bank Term Funding Program<\/strong> \u0e2b\u0e23\u0e37\u0e2d BTFP<\/strong> in short. The facility will allow banks to \u201ctake advances from the Fed<\/strong> for up to a year by pledging Treasurys<\/strong>, mortgage-backed bonds<\/strong> and other debt<\/strong> as collateral<\/strong>. By allowing banks to pledge their bonds, they can meet customer withdrawals<\/strong> without having to sell their bonds at a loss, which is what Silicon Valley Bank<\/strong> did last week, sparking a run on the bank<\/strong>\u201d WSJ reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monster moves in bond yields boost inflows towards the precious<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bond yields<\/strong> were on a free fall<\/strong> mode<\/strong> for the past four days, with the US 2-year yield<\/strong> nose diving in extraordinary fashion by more than 100 basis points, from 5.07% peak formed last Tuesday and finding support around the 4% level. Similarly, the benchmark US 10-year treasury yield<\/strong> eased towards the 3.5% mark, down by more than 50 basis points for the same period. These erratic<\/strong> moves<\/strong> reflect the market<\/strong> worries<\/strong> for a possible<\/strong> spillover<\/strong> from the SVB\u2019s collapse<\/strong> into the entire banking industry<\/strong> and as a result investors<\/strong> fled to safety<\/strong>, diverting significant inflows<\/strong> towards the precious<\/strong>. Hence, we observed gold\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> pivoting<\/strong> from the low $1800\u2019s and soaring past the key psychological<\/strong> level of $1900 within three sessions, recording an incredulous<\/strong> 5.5% gain<\/strong>. Should fears for contagion persist<\/strong> \u0e41\u0e25\u0e30 bond yields keep moving south<\/strong>, we may see gold\u2019s<\/strong> price being propelled<\/strong> higher<\/strong>, closer to early February\u2019s peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CPI print underscores the stickiness of inflationary pressures<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Earlier today the latest US CPI print <\/strong>showcased that inflationary pressures<\/strong> have eased<\/strong> but remain well above the central bank\u2019s 2% target. Both the month-on-month and the year-on-year headline CPI rates<\/strong> matched expectations<\/strong>, reported at 0.4% and 6.0% respectively, confirming<\/strong> the slowdown<\/strong>, however the Core CPI rate<\/strong> beat forecasts and rose to 0.5%, above market expectations of 0.4% and broadcasted once again the stickier<\/strong> nature<\/strong> of inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong>. These results prior to SVB\u2019s collapse<\/strong> would have most likely pushed markets to expect the 50 basis points hike from the Fed, however, taking into account the fallout of the Silicon Valley Bank<\/strong>, the FFF<\/strong> currently assigns a 85% probability in the scenario where the Fed hikes by 25 basis points<\/strong>. The results had minimal effect on the greenback<\/strong>, however the gold<\/strong> gained<\/strong> traction<\/strong> despite the jump of bond yields<\/strong> intraday and left analysts puzzled. Nevertheless, market participants will turn their attention towards Fed Governor Bowman\u2019s<\/strong> comments<\/strong> later today who is conveniently the first Fed official<\/strong> to speak post<\/strong> the SVB mayhem<\/strong> and may drop some hints in regards to the Fed\u2019s intentions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e27\u0e34\u0e40\u0e04\u0e23\u0e32\u0e30\u0e2b\u0e4c\u0e40\u0e17\u0e04\u0e19\u0e34\u0e04 (K\u0101r w\u1ecbkhr\u0101 h\u0304l t\u0113khn\u1ecbk)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Support: 1900 (S1), 1885 (S2), 1870 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance: 1915 (R1), 1930 (R2), 1945 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Looking at XAUUSD<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe gold\u2019s monster move<\/strong> demolishing<\/strong> all of our prior resistance<\/strong> levels, as investors\u2019 confidence was shaken by SVB\u2019s fallout<\/strong> and led them to flee<\/strong> towards<\/strong> the precious<\/strong> to safeguard themselves from another contagion. We hold a bullish outlook<\/strong> bias<\/strong> for the bullion<\/strong> given the ascending channel<\/strong> and since worries for a spillover continue to circulate the market. Supporting our case is the RSI<\/strong> indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a value of 77, highlighting the extreme bullish sentiment<\/strong> that surrounds the precious metal<\/strong>. Yet we would like to point out that the move<\/strong> has<\/strong> been<\/strong> excessive<\/strong> as clearly seen by the multiple breaks<\/strong> above the upper bound<\/strong> of the Bollinger<\/strong> band<\/strong>, hence we would like to highlight the scenario of a possible correction lower<\/strong> in the short term or at the very least a period of consolidation<\/strong>. Moreover, worth pointing out is that the 100 period Moving<\/strong> Average<\/strong> appears to be on track to break above the 200 period Moving Average, and should that be the case the formation of a golden cross<\/strong> could signal<\/strong> to the bulls<\/strong> that more upside is expected<\/strong>. Should the bulls continue to dominate<\/strong>, we may see the break<\/strong> above the 1915 (R1) closest resistance<\/strong> level and the move closer to the 1930 (R2) resistance<\/strong> barrier<\/strong>. Also should extreme volatile conditions <\/strong>continue to plague the market we may see the price action rising higher<\/strong>, closer to the 1945 (R3) crucial resistance<\/strong> level<\/strong>. Should on the other hand, the bears<\/strong> take<\/strong> the<\/strong> initiative<\/strong>, we may see the break below the ascending channel<\/strong>, the definitive break of the 1900 (S1) support<\/strong> level and the move lower close to the 1885 (S2) support base<\/strong>. In extreme volatile<\/strong> conditions<\/strong> we may also see the price fall to lower ground<\/strong> and close in the 1870 (S3) support<\/strong> base.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclaimer:
    This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Last week\u2019s NFP results were overshadowed by the abrupt collapse…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[376,355,386,411,780,338],"class_list":["post-57749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gold","tag-gold-market","tag-gold-price","tag-gold-traders","tag-market-research","tag-technical-analysis","blog-category-metals","blog_tag-gold","blog_tag-gold-market","blog_tag-gold-price","blog_tag-gold-traders","blog_tag-market-research","blog_tag-technical-analysis","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGold Outlook: SVB induced chaos nudges investors to pile into gold<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57749\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"th_TH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SVB-induced chaos nudges investors to pile into gold\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/th\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-14T14:08:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-17T07:18:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"SVB-induced chaos nudges investors to pile into gold\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-14T14:08:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T07:18:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1133,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"gold\",\"Gold market\",\"gold price\",\"Gold traders\",\"market research\",\"Technical analysis\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"th\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/\",\"name\":\"Gold Outlook: SVB induced chaos nudges investors to pile into gold\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-14T14:08:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T07:18:05+00:00\",\"description\":\"We aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"th\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/svb-induced-chaos-nudges-investors-to-pile-into-gold\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"SVB-induced chaos nudges investors to pile into gold\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/th\\\/\",\"name\":\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\",\"description\":\""Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners' needs. 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