{"id":77700,"date":"2024-02-29T11:27:30","date_gmt":"2024-02-29T09:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=77700"},"modified":"2025-12-10T17:17:49","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T15:17:49","slug":"januarys-us-core-pce-price-index-eyed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/th\/januarys-us-core-pce-price-index-eyed\/","title":{"rendered":"January\u2019s US Core PCE price index eyed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The USD remained relatively unchanged against its counterparts yesterday despite the 2nd estimate of the GDP rate for Q4 23 ticking down and today attention turns towards the release of January\u2019s US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed\u2019s favorite inflation measure. The rate is expected to slow down on a year-on-year level, implying that inflationary pressures continue to ease in the US economy which in turn may add more pressure on the Fed to start cutting rates earlier, thus weakening the USD. On the flip side, the month-on-month rate is expected to accelerate implying that inflationary pressures are still simmering under the surface which may enhance the determination of the bank to keep rates high for longer and support the USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Core PCE rates due out today\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/TEIoGKsAUVU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Across the Atlantic EUR traders are expected to keep a close eye on the release of France\u2019s and Germany\u2019s preliminary HICP rates for February. The rates are expected to show a deceleration if compared to January\u2019s final rate and if actually so, may weigh on the common currency as they will be sending a message to ECB that it may be allowed to start earlier rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>EUR\/USD maintained its sideways motion yesterday between the 1.0740 (S1) support line and the 1.0890 (R1) resistance line. We maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue given also that the RSI indicator continues to run along the reading of 50 implying a rather indecisive market while at the same time, the Bollinger bands seem to have flattened out which may allow the sideways motion to be continued. Yet should buyers take charge of the pair\u2019s direction, we may see EUR\/USD breaking the 1.0890 (R1) resistance line and aiming for the 1.1010 (R2) resistance level. Should a selling interest be expressed by the market we may see EUR\/USD breaking the 1.0740 (S1) support lien and aim for the 1.0615 (S2) support level.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, we would note the strengthening of JPY during today\u2019s Asian session which was caused by BoJ policymaker Hajime Takata as he stated that BoJ\u2019s inflation target has finally come into sight. The comment tends to enhance market expectations for a possible rate hike in April, ending BoJ\u2019s decades-long negative interest rate and could keep JPY supported on a monetary level. BOJ\u2019s intentions seem to have become the true catalyst behind JPY\u2019s direction today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>USD\/JPY seems to be escaping its sideways motion by breaking the 150.00 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. Given also that the RSI indicator has dropped nearing the reading of 30, implying a build-up of a bearish sentiment among market participants for the pair, we switch our sideways bias in favor of a bearish outlook for the pair. Should the bears maintain control over the pair we may see it aiming if not breaching the 148.55 (S1) support line, thus paving the way for the 146.30 (S2) support base. For a bullish outlook, we set the prerequisites quite high, as we would require the pair to break the 150.00 (R1) resistance line and actively aim if not breach the 151.85 (R2) resistance hurdle.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last but not least we note the release of China\u2019s manufacturing PMI figures for February during tomorrow\u2019s Asian session which is expected to show that Chinese factories are still struggling to keep economic activity afloat and if actually so, could turn the market sentiment a shade more cautious weighing on riskier assets.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-highlights-for-the-day\"><strong>Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today in the European session, we note the release of France\u2019s final GDP rate for Q4 while from Switzerland we get the GDP rate for Q4 and February\u2019s KOF indicator. In the American session, we note from the US the release of January\u2019s consumption rate and from Canada we get Q4\u2019s GDP rate and New Zealand\u2019s January building consents. On the monetary front, we note the speeches of Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Mester. During tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, RBNZ Governor Orr is scheduled to speak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-usd-jpy-h4-chart\"><strong>USD\/JPY H4 Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"456\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-133.png\" alt=\"support at one hundred and forty eight point fifty five and resistance at one hundred and fifty, direction downwards \" class=\"wp-image-77701\" title=\"usd-jpy-four-hour-chart \"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 148.55 (S1), 146.30 (S2), 144.35 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 150.00 (R1), 151.85 (R2), 154.00 (R3) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-eur-usd-h4-chart\"><strong>EUR\/USD H4 Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"456\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-134.png\" alt=\"support at one point zero seven four and resistance at one point zero eight nine, direction sideways  \" class=\"wp-image-77702\" title=\"eur-usd-four-hour-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 1.0740 (S1), 1.0615 (S2), 1.0455 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 1.0890 (R1), 1.1010 (R2), 1.1135 (R3) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"496\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-135.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-77703\" title=\"benchmark-29-02-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1012\" height=\"573\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-138.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-77706\" title=\"table-29-02-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1737\" height=\"1112\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-136.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-77704\" title=\"morning-releases-29-02-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1245\" height=\"802\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-137.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-77705\" title=\"morning-releases-29-02-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USD remained relatively unchanged against its counterparts yesterday despite the 2nd estimate of the GDP rate for Q4 23<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Core PCE: Markets Eye January Inflation Shift<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US Core PCE data may sway Fed rate expectations and USD direction. 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