{"id":110558,"date":"2025-05-15T17:18:40","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=110558"},"modified":"2025-05-15T17:18:41","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:18:41","slug":"oil-outlook-oil-prices-close-to-60-per-barrel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/vi\/oil-outlook-oil-prices-close-to-60-per-barrel\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: Oil prices close to $60 per barrel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a> ,oil prices seem to have moved slightly higher since the opening of the markets of Monday. However, the most recent announcement about a possible deal between the US and Iran may be taking the spotlight away from OPEC\u2019s monthly report that was released yesterday. In the current report we are to discuss the conditions characterising the US wti market currently, as well as factors affecting wtidemand and supply in the international oil market. We are to complete the fundamentals included in the report with a technical analysis of WTI\u2019s chart.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish signals from the US oil market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We make a start by noting that some aspects of the US oil market show signs of tightening. Starting with the Baker Hughes oil rig count <\/strong>last Friday which showcased a decrease in the number of active wti rigs in the US, which tends to be a bearish sign for oil prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, it showcased a decrease in oil rig count by two, implying that supply in the US oil market may be exceeding demand . Moreover, it\u2019s characteristic that the API and EIA<\/strong> reported an unexpected increase of US oil inventories by 4.287 million barrels and 3.454 million barrels, respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reports by the two oil agencies painted a clear picture in the oil market, \u00a0which in turn may have weighed on oil prices. Thus, should both agencies showcase a continuation of the increase in oil inventories in the coming week, it may continue weighing on the price of oil. On the flip side, should the showcase a decrease in inventories it may instead aid oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-Iran deal on the horizon?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to a flurry of media reports earlier on today, US President Trump<\/strong> said that the US was close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular the President stated that \u201cwe\u2019re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace\u201d, implying that a nuclear deal between the US and Iran might be on the horizon. In our view, for Iran to agree to a nuclear deal, it may involve the US restricting sanctions on Iran which may also include the removal of sanctions on Iran\u2019s oil exports<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus such a possibility could result in the increase of the supply of oil into the international market, which may be facilitated by the removal of export controls on Iranian oil. In turn, this may weigh on oil prices as the supply of oil may overshadow the existing demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, with a report by Reuters stating that Iranian officials consider the halting of uranium enrichment as a \u201dred line\u201d, we remain skeptical to the true terms of a possible deal and if there will be one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC has released its monthly report for May<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During yesterday\u2019s American trading session. In the report, OPEC notes that sequential economic growth is expected to decelerate in the second quarter of 2025 and the second half of 2025 \u201creflecting external headwinds from elevated tariffs\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a first glance, the release by OPEC showcases that they expect a possible reduction in economic growth for the second quarter and half of 2025, which in turn may imply a reduction in demand for oil, which may have weighed on oil prices. However, the report goes on to state that \u201cthe recent agreement between China and the US\u2026. offers additional support to China\u2019s short-term growth outlook\u201d, therefore given China\u2019s status as the world\u2019s largest oil consumer, a boost in their short term growth outlook could imply an increase in demand for oil, which may have aided oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Technical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n