{"id":117614,"date":"2025-07-29T16:07:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T13:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=117614"},"modified":"2025-07-29T16:07:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T13:07:01","slug":"gold-outlook-fed-decision-and-trade-talks-on-the-menu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/vi\/gold-outlook-fed-decision-and-trade-talks-on-the-menu\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Fed decision and trade talks on the menu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a>, gold\u2019s price has moved lower. In today\u2019s report we are to discuss mainly fundamental issues and we intend to end the report with a technical analysis of Gold\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed decision this week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is due out tomorrow. The majority of market participants are currently anticipating the bank to remain on hold with FFF currently implying a 96.9% probability for such a scenario to materialize. As such, attention may turn to the bank\u2019s accompanying statement and Fed Chair Powell\u2019s press conference following the bank\u2019s decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, market participants may be looking for any hints from policymakers that the bank is prepared to cut rates in the near future, which could weigh on the dollar whilst aiding gold\u2019s price given their inverse relationship with one another. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, should the bank showcase a willingness to maintain its restrictive monetary policy approach it may have the opposite effect and thus aid the dollar whilst weighing on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, we must note that the Fed has been under immense pressure from the US Government and in particular President Trump, who has been vocal in his opinion that the Fed should cut rates and thus despite the 96.9% probability implied by FFF that the Fed may remain on hold, a rate cut possibility may still exist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our view, we would not be surprised to see dissent amongst policymakers and a possible dovish undertone emerging within the bank\u2019s accompanying statement, such as implying that once the dust settles from the administration\u2019s trade agenda, the bank could possibly consider cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation data, GDP rates and the state of the US Employment market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s going to be an incredibly volatile week for traders considering the amount and significance of the financial releases stemming from the US. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We begin with the release of the US preliminary GDP rate for Q2 which is due to be released in tomorrow\u2019s American session and notably prior to the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision. The current expectations by economists are for the GDP rate to showcase an expansion of the economy at 2.4% and could thus aid the dollar whilst weighing on gold\u2019s price as recession fears continue to subside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, the US inflation print and in particular the PCE rates for June are due out on Thursday and are expected to showcase an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the US economy on a headline level from 2.3% to 2.5% whereas the Core PCE rate is expected to remain steady at 2.7%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, the possible uptick in inflationary pressures could increase pressure on the Fed to remain on hold which could aid the dollar whilst weighing on gold\u2019s price. Yet, the US Employment data for July which is due out on Friday, is expected to showcase a loosening labour market when looking at the expected NFP figure and the anticipated uptick in the unemployment rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, given that the Fed\u2019s dual mandate may be at odds with inflation remaining elevated whilst the labour market loosens, market worries may resurface about the state of the US economy, which could aid gold\u2019s price given its status as a safe haven asset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade deals and talks with China to ease market worries?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since our report last week, the US and the EU have agreed to trade deal terms, effectively ending market worries about a possible trade war between the US and EU come August 1st. In turn the reduced risk of a global trade war occurring may have weighed on gold\u2019s price. Furthermore, as trade discussions between the US and China proceed, worries about a trade war between China and the US may continue to ease. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the possible conclusion of the US\u2019s volatile trade agenda may allow for some normality to return to the markets which in turn, could weigh on gold\u2019s price as the risks posed to the global economy subside. In our view, the China-US talks which are currently ongoing are what we are currently monitoring, as Trump
may be eager to declare \u201cvictory\u201d, but with China possibly looking to control the narrative the situation may not be that simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n