Crypto Outlook: BTC still hovering above the $60,000 key psychological figure

Since our crypto last report, Bitcoin has managed to remain above the $60,000 key psychological figure.  Crypto bulls seem to have eased their aggressiveness, with some strengthening appearing from the bears who may have temporarily gained control over the coin’s direction. In this report, we aim to shed light on the possible factors aiding to the recent developments in combination with a technical analysis of Bitcoin.

Crypto: Overview Report

Consensys vs SEC battle intensifies 

Consensys has sued the US Securities and Exchange Commission over its “unlawful seizure of authority” over Ethereum. In the 该文件 filled by Consensys, it appears that the SEC served the company with a Wells Notice, “stating its intent to imminently recommend that the commission bring an enforcement action against Consensys for violating the federal securities laws through its MetaMask Swaps 和 MetaMask staking products”.

Essentially, the SEC now, considers Ethereum to be a security and thus, Consensys in the eyes of the SEC is apparently acting as an unregistered securities broker. The lawsuit could have dire implications for the cryptocurrency Ethereum, as should it be labelled as a security, it could dramatically weigh on the coin’s price. On the flip side, should the coin be granted a designation from a court of law that it is not a security, it could provide support the coin’s price.

BNY Mellon announces exposure to crypto 

According to a recent SEC filings report by BNY Mellon, the bank announced that it has exposures to the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF. The overall amount appears to be relatively insignificant when compared to the banks total balance sheet yet may be indicative of a wider trend in which traditional finance, has adopted Bitcoin.

Moreover, should more bank’s banks either take on Bitcoin ETF’s or even expanding existing holdings, it could spur enthusiasm in the market, hence potentially supporting Bitcoin’s price. However, we should note the announcement does not appear to have had a significant impact on the coin’s price. 

Ripple responds to the SEC 

The SEC has asked the court to impose a fine of up to $1.95B against Ripple Labs, after a court ruling found that Ripple Labs had violated securities law by making institutional sales of XRP but had also dismissed the claim that the sale of XRP on exchanges violated securities law. The latest update in this saga, was the reply of Ripple Labs  (the architects of the coin “XRP”) who replied to the SEC last week, stating that a $10M penalty would be sufficient. In the event that the Judge rules in favour of Ripple Labs, that a lesser fine than the SEC’s proposed $1.95B  is to be made, then it could provide support for the company’s native coin’s price which is XRP.

The potentially benefit to the coin, could be the final conclusion of the year’s long legal battle with the US’s top regulator. On the flip side, should the Judge side with the SEC it could have the opposite effect and could potentially weigh on the coin’s price, as the negative narrative surrounding its parent company may dissuade potential investors.  

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 60000 (S1), 51800 (S2), 43500 (S3)
• Resistance: 66300 (R1), 73200 (R2), 83000 (R3)  

BTC/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion after bouncing off the 60000 (S1) key psychological support level. For the time being, we opt to maintain our sideways bias for the coin and supporting our case is the smoothening out of the 50MA 和 100MA lines. Yet, when looking at the RSI indicator below our chart, it currently registers a figure near 40, implying a slightly bearish market sentiment. Moreover, the coin appears to have formed a downwards moving trendline on the 9th of April, further implying bearish market tendencies.

Nonetheless, for our neutral outlook to continue, we would like to see the coin remain confined between the 60000 (S1) support level and the 66300 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, we would immediately switch our sideways bias in favour for a bearish outlook, in the event of the coin’s price action breaking below the 60000 (S1) support line, with the next possible target for the bears being the 51800 (S2) support line.

Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 66300 (R1) resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 73200 (R2) resistance line.

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