欧洲央行加息，而日本央行按兵不动

昨天贸易兑其他货币趋向回落， tended to provide additional support for the EUR, as the bank hiked rates as expected by 25 basis points and also signaled that more rate hikes lay ahead. It’s characteristic that ECB President Christine Lagarde in her press conference that followed the release of the decision, reaffirmed that the bank is not at the end of its rate hiking cycle with another 25 basis points rate hike in the July meeting being probable. This was also the market’s expectation and EUR traders seem not to have been disappointed. EUR/USD rose yesterday and broke the 1.0855 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We tend to maintain our bullish outlook for the pair as the slope of the pair’s movement indicative of the upward trendline has steepened. Furthermore we highlight the RSI indicator which has risen above the reading of 70, indicative of the strong bullish sentiment of the market yet at the same time the RSI indicator may imply that the pair has reached overbought levels and may be ripe for a correction lower. Similar signals come from the Bollinger bands, as the pair broke the upper boundary in its upward movement before stabilizing somewhat in today’s Asian session. Should the bulls maintain control over the pair we may see it breaking the 1.1000 (R1) resistance line and set as the bulls’ next possible target the 1.1175 (R2) resistance level. Should on the other hand the pair correct lower and the bears find a chance to take over, we may see EUR/USD correcting lower breaking the prementioned upward trendline in a first sign that the upward movement has been interrupted, break the 1.0855 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.0695 (S2) level.

欧元兑美元，日元和英镑在本周结束走强，欧元呈全线走强迹象. 在货币层面上, 欧洲央行的利率决议给欧元提供了额外的支撑, 因为央行如预期的那样加息25个基点，也表明未来将有更多加息. 表现在欧洲央行主席Christine Lagarde 在决议发布后的新闻发布会上重申央行加息周期尚未结束，可能在7月份会议上再次加息25个基点. 这也是市场的预期，欧元交易者似乎并未感到失望.

在货币层面上我们还应该注意的是, 日本央行如普遍预计的那样仍然按兵不动将利率保持在-0.10% 不变, 并保持超宽松货币政策设置.央行的鸽派立场体现在其所附声明中的前瞻指导中, 总体而言，日本央行与其他央行货币政策前景的差别趋向扩大，因此会影响日元，我们预计只要日本央行保持鸽派立场，其他央行收紧政策，这种趋势就会继续下去。鉴于央行努力将通胀率保持在2%的目标附近，我们在宏观经济层面强调，6月份消费物价指数将于下周末发布，尤其是在央行预计今年晚些时候通胀率将下降的情况下。正如上面所写的那样，日本央行行长Ueda仍需就利率决议召开新闻发布会，并可能延长日元货币对的波动性。此外，我们注意到日本财政部长Suzuki对日元交易者的声明，即过度波动是不可取的，这暗示了日本政府可能会再次干预市场.