7月份美国就业报告令交易者失望

The USD tended to wobble and finally edged lower against its counterparts on Friday as the US employment report for July tended to disappoint traders. The report as such tended to send out mixed signals, as the NFP figure dropped more than expected, implying that the ability of the US employment market to create jobs eased, yet the unemployment rate ticked down highlighting the US employment market’s tightness. Furthermore, the average earnings growth rate failed to slow down, in a sign that the US employment market may continue to feed inflationary pressures in the US economy. It’s characteristic that both Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee both noted the rebalancing of the US employment market, which could allow the Fed to remain on hold in the September meeting. On the other hand, Fed Board Governor Bowman stated over the weekend that more rate hikes would be required expressing a more hawkish approach within the Fed. We note the split within the Fed yet tend to expect the bank to take another breather at its September meeting to grasp the impact of its cumulative monetary policy tightening.

另一方面, 美联储董事Bowman 在周末表示，需要进一步加息以表达美联储内部更加鹰派的态度. 我们注意到美联储内部存在分歧，但预计央行将在9月份会议上再喘口气，以把握其累积货币政策紧缩的影响.

今日其他亮点:

Today we note the release of Germany’s industrial output for June, UK’s Halifax House Prices for July and Eurozone’s Sentix Index for August and on the monetary front, we note that Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of Japan’s All household spending, current account balance and trading balance all for June, Australia’s Consumer Sentiment for August and Business conditions and confidence for July as well as China’s trade data for July, while on the monetary front, RBAs’ Schwarz is scheduled to speak and all could have an effect on the Aussie. Currently, AUD/USD seems to show some signs of stabilisation between the 0.6620 (R1) and the 0.6515 (S1) levels. We note that the RSI indicator continues to run just below the reading of 50, which may imply that the bearish sentiment may have eased. Despite the downward trendline being present for a bearish outlook of the pair, we would require AUD/USD to break the 0.6515 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6400 (S2) support level. Should a buying interest be expressed by the market we may see AUD/USD breaking the prementioned upward trendline in a first sign that the downward movement has been interrupted and continue higher to break the 0.6620 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.6725 (R2) resistance level.

本周

今天，我们注意到6月份德国工业产出, 7月份英国Halifax房价和8月份欧元区情绪指数，在货币方面, 我们注意到亚特兰大联储主席Bostic 将发言. 在明天亚洲时段, 我们注意到日本所有家庭开支, 资金平衡表和贸易收支，所有发布均为6月份, 8月份澳大利亚消费者情绪，7月份商业条件和信心以及7月份中国贸易数据的发布, 在货币方面, TBAs Schwarz 计划发言.