{"id":115281,"date":"2025-06-23T12:29:03","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T09:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=115281"},"modified":"2025-06-23T12:30:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T09:30:09","slug":"junes-preliminary-pmi-data-under-the-loupe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/zh\/junes-preliminary-pmi-data-under-the-loupe\/","title":{"rendered":"June\u2019s preliminary PMI data under the loupe"},"content":{"rendered":"

The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict cannot escape the headlines as the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. As the market braces for Iran\u2019s response, the USD seems to have regained its safe-haven qualities as it got some support. Elsewhere in the market, oil prices jumped at today\u2019s opening, yet corrected lower in the Asian session, while gold\u2019s bulls remained passive as the precious metal\u2019s price suffered from the strengthening of the USD. Any further escalation say for example if Iran hits US targets could enhance the market\u2019s uncertainty thus weighing on riskier assets while at the same time providing support for safe-havens. Today we highlight the release of the preliminary PMI figures for June of France, Germany, the Euro Zone as a whole, the UK and the US. We intend to focus on the EUR related figures, especially Germany\u2019s manufacturing sector and a beyond expectations rise of the indicator\u2019s reading could provide some support for the EUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI\u2019s price jumped and briefly broke the 75.65 (R1) resistance line reaching new 5 month highs, yet corrected lower in today\u2019s Asian session. We maintain a bullish outlook for the commodity\u2019s price as despite the correction lower, the upward movement does not seem to have been broken and the upward trendline guiding remains intact. Yet the fact that the RSI indicator is still above the reading of 70 signalling a strong bullish market sentiment for oil prices yet also that WTI\u2019s price is still at overbought levels, and the correction lower may be extended. For a bullish outlook we would require WTI\u2019s price, to break the 75.65 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 79.35 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, WTI\u2019s price could break the 72.00 (S1) support line and pave the way for the 68.40 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the FX Market EUR\/USD seems to remain relatively stable, just above the 1.1450 (S1) resistance line. Given that the pair\u2019s price action has broken the upward trendline guiding it last Wednesday, we switched our bullish outlook in favour of a sideways motion bias. Should the bulls take over, we may see the pair breaking the 1.1690 (R1) resistance line thus opening the gates for the 1.1905 (R2) resistance level. For a bearish outlook we would require the pair to break the 1.1450 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 1.1210 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Today we get the UK\u2019s nationwide house prices rate for June, France\u2019s preliminary services PMI figure, Germany\u2019s preliminary manufacturing figure and the Eurozone\u2019s preliminary composite PMI figure all for June and the US S&P preliminary manufacturing PMI figure for June and on a monetary level the speech Chicago Fed President Goolsbee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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On Tuesday we get Germany\u2019s Ifo indicators for June, UK\u2019s CBI industrial orders for June and Canada\u2019s CPI rates for May. On Wednesday, we note the release of New Zealand\u2019s trade data for May, Japan\u2019s BoJ is to release the summary of opinions for its last meeting, Australia\u2019s CPI rates for May and from the Czech Republic CNB\u2019s interest rate decision. On Thursday, we get Germany\u2019s GfK consumer Sentiment for July, UK\u2019s CBI distributive trades for June, the US durable goods orders for May, the final US GDP rate for Q1 and the weekly initial jobless claims figure. On Friday, we get from Japan, Tokyo\u2019s CPI rates for June, France\u2019s preliminary HICP rate also for June, the Czech Republic\u2019s revised GDP rate for Q1, Euro Zone\u2019s economic sentiment for June, Canada\u2019s GDP rate for April, the US consumption rate for May, we highlight the release of the US PCE rates for May and finally note the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI\u00a0 Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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