{"id":67262,"date":"2023-07-25T14:37:43","date_gmt":"2023-07-25T11:37:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=67262"},"modified":"2025-11-25T11:58:33","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T09:58:33","slug":"markets-await-the-feds-interest-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/zh\/markets-await-the-feds-interest-rate-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets await the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision"},"content":{"rendered":"

The upward movement of gold\u2019s<\/strong> price appears to have been halted<\/strong>, with the precious<\/strong> moving to lower<\/strong> ground<\/strong>, as market traders await the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> interest rate<\/strong> decision<\/strong>. The continued strengthening of the greenback<\/strong> appears to have capped<\/strong> Gold\u2019s<\/strong> gains<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving gold\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market anticipations of the Fed\u2019s interest rate appear to be weighing on the precious.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Market participants, appear to be eagerly<\/strong> awaiting the Fed\u2019s<\/strong>  <\/strong> which is due<\/strong> to be released tomorrow<\/strong>, following last weeks initial Jobless claims figure<\/strong>, which indicated<\/strong> that the US<\/strong> labour<\/strong> market<\/strong> remains tight,<\/strong> following a lower<\/strong> than expected<\/strong> figure<\/strong> of 228k compared<\/strong> to the predicted figure<\/strong> of 242k. The lower than expected<\/strong> figure<\/strong>, may have potentially provided<\/strong> some leeway<\/strong> for the Fed<\/strong>, should they decide to increase interest rates<\/strong> in their meeting tomorrow, given that tight<\/strong> labour<\/strong> market could add<\/strong> to inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong>. Furthermore, the better-than-expected S&P Preliminary Manufacturing figure for July, was indicative<\/strong> of the manufacturing<\/strong> sector contracting<\/strong>, but at a slower<\/strong> rate<\/strong>, in addition to FFF<\/strong> implying a 97.2%<\/strong> for the Fed<\/strong> to hike<\/strong> by 25<\/strong> basis points, appears to be supporting<\/strong> the dollar<\/strong>. The positive<\/strong> financial<\/strong> releases<\/strong>, could be weighing<\/strong> on golds<\/strong> price<\/strong>, given that the two maintain<\/strong> an inverse<\/strong> relationship<\/strong>, and thus the greenbacks<\/strong> rise<\/strong> could be attributed to gold\u2019s<\/strong> move<\/strong> to lower<\/strong> ground<\/strong>. However, the current economic situation in the US could weaken<\/strong> the greenback<\/strong>, as despite some positive<\/strong> financial releases<\/strong> the long-term macroeconomic<\/strong> outlook<\/strong>, could be perceived<\/strong> as a negative<\/strong> for the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong>.<\/a> Therefore, we may see the precious<\/strong> metal<\/strong> moving in an upwards<\/strong> direction in the long<\/strong> run<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Newcrest\u2019s gold output rises.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Newcrest on Tuesday released its Q4 FY23 report, which confirmed<\/strong> that the company<\/strong> had achieved<\/strong> its FY23 gold<\/strong> production<\/strong>. The company was able to alleviate<\/strong> production<\/strong> snags<\/strong> at its flagship<\/strong> Cadia mine<\/strong> in New South Wales, allowing for the mining facility to reach prior<\/strong> production<\/strong> levels, as the mine was able to increase production<\/strong> by nearly 14%. In the event that production<\/strong> keeps increasing<\/strong>, we may see an increase<\/strong> in supply<\/strong> of gold<\/strong> into the market which could theoretically<\/strong> drive the precious<\/strong> \u91d1\u5c5e<\/strong> price downwards<\/strong>. Furthermore, should that be the case, we may see the price of gold<\/strong> declining<\/strong>, yet given geo<\/strong>–political<\/strong> \u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong>, such as a gradual de<\/strong>–dollarization<\/strong>, we might see potential<\/strong> increases in supply<\/strong> being snatched up by Governments<\/strong>, in an attempt<\/strong> to reduce<\/strong> their reliance<\/strong> on the dollar<\/strong>. Furthermore, we should note that Newcrest<\/strong> is to be acquired<\/strong> by Newmont<\/strong>, with the deal pending<\/strong> shareholder<\/strong> approval, thus potentially benefitting<\/strong> Newmont<\/strong> as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North America regains its gold taste?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to data from Gold.org, North America in the week ending 21 <\/sup> July has switched its Gold ETF flows<\/strong>, from negative<\/strong> to positive<\/strong>. Since the 26\u00a0  <\/sup> of May<\/strong>, gold demand<\/strong> in North America has been graduallydeclining<\/strong>, yet last week thatchanged<\/strong>. North American Gold ETF\u2019s demanded approximately<\/strong> 4.9 Tons of Gold, ending an almost 1-month recorded decline<\/strong> in demand. It could be chalked up to increasingfears<\/strong> of a recession<\/strong> the US,UK and China , as the rhetoric surrounding a potentialrecession <\/strong>appears to be ramping up from traditionalnewsoutlets<\/strong>. Therefore, given Gold\u2019sstatus,<\/strong> as a hedge during times of uncertainty<\/strong>, we may see this renewed<\/strong> interest in the precious<\/strong>, providingsupport<\/strong> for Gold\u2019s price<\/strong> in the short<\/strong>–term<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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