{"id":78124,"date":"2024-03-12T14:34:11","date_gmt":"2024-03-12T12:34:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=78124"},"modified":"2024-03-12T14:34:42","modified_gmt":"2024-03-12T12:34:42","slug":"gold-outlook-bulls-hesitate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-cn.com\/zh\/gold-outlook-bulls-hesitate\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Bulls hesitate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price seems to have hit a ceiling at the all-time high level of 2195, yet it\u2019s still too early to judge whether the bulls gave up or are just taking a break after the steep ascent of the past week<\/a>. Today we are to discuss the fundamental challenges laid ahead for the precious metal, while we will be concluding this report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s monetary policy <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the ever-interesting monetary front, for gold traders, we have entered the blackout period before the Fed\u2019s 20\u00a0  <\/sup> of March interest rate decision. For the time being the market\u2019s expectations are for the bank to start cutting rates in the June meeting and deliver four rate cuts until the end of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market expectations tend to weaken the USD and at the same time support gold\u2019s price as they are considered dovish. Yet Fed policymakers tended to push back against the market\u2019s expectations implying a degree of uncertainty on behalf of the Fed for the path of US inflation. It\u2019s characteristic that\u00a0 Fed Chairman Powell in his testimony before the US Senate recognized the need for rate cuts within the year, confirming the market\u2019s expectations, yet also highlighted the uncertainty for the outlook of inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the release allowed for gold\u2019s price to reach new record highs, as the confirmation that rate cuts are coming seemed predominant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold, USD and US Yields<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since our last report, US yields tended to edge lower polishing further the appeal of the precious metal if contrasted to US bonds as a safe-haven instrument. We expect that the inverse relationship between US yields and gold\u2019s price may continue to influence the path of the precious metal\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly and linked in a more obvious fashion, would be the negative correlation of the USD and gold\u2019s price as the weakening of the USD against its counterparts, may have allowed for gold\u2019s price to advance higher since our last report. At this point, we note that the release of the US CPI rates for February later today is to be the next big test for gold\u2019s price. A possible failure of the US CPI rates to slow down materially could imply a persistence of inflationary pressures in the US economy, adding pressure on the Fed to keep rates high for longer and thus weakening gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also note the release of the US retail sales for February on Thursday, as another release that could potentially create some volatility for gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regional tensions continue to support gold\u2019s price<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On an international level, we note that regional tensions on a military level, seem to remain pretty much active, increasing uncertainty in the global market. We note currently, the war in Ukraine, the Israel bombing of Gaza, the Houthi rebel activity in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman but also the less mentioned in media Venezuelan intentions to annex large parts of Guyana, the unrest in Haiti and the tensions in the Taiwan straits. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overall uncertainty is also enhanced by the political outlook of the US, which hangs in the balance of the November presidential elections. Overall, we tend to maintain the view that geopolitical tensions provide support for gold\u2019s price as they could potentially increase demand for the precious metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold: Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD Daily Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"XAUUSD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n